TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Oh my word. At this point, I would rather stay in Florida until Spring than keep dealing with this muck up of a winter. Mid 50s with 30 mph gusts here today. Actually feels pretty cold after days of mid 80s! The hoodies and winter coats are out all over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Gfs with a really nice hybrid system for CNY, transfers much quicker than the European.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Nws updating the archives, only 2 events so far for 19-20 lol Obviously the one we just had is not up yet.. The only decent one here all winter, fell in like 4 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 This season has been great on the snowfall aspect for us here in the GTA but I can tell im over winter when I dont really want another 1-3" or 2-4" either drop a widespread 8-12" or rain. Im itching for spring 50s and sun which in this area starts rearing its head in the next few weeks. I get the same feeling in late August where im tired of the 80s and want the first cool 60-70s and the 40s at night which almost always happens first couple weeks of September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 33 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: This season has been great on the snowfall aspect for us here in the GTA but I can tell im over winter when I dont really want another 1-3" or 2-4" either drop a widespread 8-12" or rain. Im itching for spring 50s and sun which in this area starts rearing its head in the next few weeks. I get the same feeling in late August where im tired of the 80s and want the first cool 60-70s and the 40s at night which almost always happens first couple weeks of September Wrong answer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 So much snow up here. Has to be 3’ depth. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Looks euro like, with a late transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 5 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Isn't that drag queen... I honestly forgot about the leather chaps saga. 4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh my word. At this point, I would rather stay in Florida until Spring than keep dealing with this muck up of a winter. Mid 50s with 30 mph gusts here today. Actually feels pretty cold after days of mid 80s! The hoodies and winter coats are out all over. I'm watching tennis from Delray Beach and the crowd are more bundled up than anyone I've seen all year. Chicken wusses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Sometimes I wonder about the NWS.. Since when does a closed Low over Quebec promote lake Enhancement SE of the lake? Lol Granted they have 80% chance of snow on Wednesday-night through thursday night but the wording doesn't make much sense lol A robust shortwave crossing the Gulf of Alaska this weekend will dive southeast across the Intermountain West on Monday. As we progress through the heart of the new work week...this energy will help to carve out a deep longwave trough that is eventually forecast to evolve into a large closed off storm system over Quebec by weeks end. While this will support a prolonged period of unsettled weather across our region...the trend for the resulting surface features has been to shift to the west. This will favor more rain for the FIRST HALF of the event Tuesday and Wednesday...then as cold air deepens on its backside...widespread accumulating snow can be anticipated for Thursday and Friday. While this snowfall could result in some slick travel...SIGNIFICANT impacts will likely be confined to the lake enhanced areas southeast of both lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 18z GEFS looks better (SE). At least for WNY synoptic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 It's really not much different than the Op as the secondary rides up the Hudson valley..Still some changes coming with this one, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 The models are still awaiting what my final decision is...will he extend his vacation through next week? Slam those upstaters with snowfall? Oh wait, he is coming home? Wagons west, boys!!!! (P.S. No way I can stay down here longer. Work duties call....enjoy your rain next week. lol) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's really not much different than the Op as the secondary rides up the Hudson valley..Still some changes coming with this one, obviously. Well, what's not going to change is the lack of cold air available till the system has passed by. If thermals suck for what looks to be a best case HV track, I dont see this being a major snow producer unless wraparound actually happens, which is usually tricky. Let's go Lake Effect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Gefs members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Another solid enhancement event on the gfs, not as good as 12z but solid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Basically 2-3 days of wrap around/Enhancement, gfs is actually probably to low with precipitation verbatim. The icon was more in the Euro camp with straight up lake effect more so than enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 We are hoping for totally different solutions. Lol. At this point, a cutter with a pure LE following seems like the most likely scenario. Probably on a west wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Cutter gonna cut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Seems to be a nightly theme.. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 20. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 0z euro never transfers, straight up cutter, couple days of LES verbatim..Gfs also seemed to trend that way but not a as impressive with the lake effect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: 0z euro never transfers, straight up cutter, couple days of LES verbatim..Gfs also seemed to trend that way but not a as impressive with the lake effect.. Yep this one is cooked and served... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yep this one is cooked and served... At least it did us the honor of disappearing quickly. For that I thank it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Yeah I didn't want to have to rely on lake effect lol But I guess now I do...I was rooting for a gfs like hybrid scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Euro was probably feet of snow east of the lakes, especially the tug, I have never seen it show 8-9 frames of pretty much the same wind flow, at least since I've been in Oswego county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 it’s just so mf’ing frustrating that these models keep showing cold only to buckle to that same SE ridge and progressive nonsense. It’s just odd that they never got it. They kept getting duped. ALL WINTER. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 We are getting to that time of year when one day can be 60 and the next 20 lol I'm just hoping we can run into a big one in March lol I don't care how long it stays on the ground.. Gfs loves to throw bombs out..It's always 10-14 days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Euro was probably feet of snow east of the lakes, especially the tug, I have never seen it show 8-9 frames of pretty much the same wind flow, at least since I've been in Oswego county.. That would be the ultimate smack in my face... Finally a WNW lake event while I am gone, and a nice over achiever...just to come home to days of 40s and rain...AND a Westerly lake effect event with all the snow just to my north. Gaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Gfs spreads around the wealth more so than the European, as winds eventually turn NW as the system is moving away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Long duration lake effect event on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Potential is there, wether it is realized is another story lol Ukmet is just getting started.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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