CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 NWS KBUF had to say b-ville just for Tug's sake, lol, even though itll be just to their North, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Looking like I'll be in the jackpot zone, but with lake effect who the hell knows haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 30:1 or greater ratios! The deepest cold air and best moisture helped along by upstream connection to eastern Lake Superior and Lake Huron will advect across Lake Ontario tonight through Thursday morning, when lake induced equilibrium levels rise to 8-10K feet and all the lake convective layer within the DGZ will result in an increased fluff factor as SLRs in stronger snow bands will likely exceed 30:1. Back to Lake Ontario lake effect...boundary layer flow becomes better aligned by later this evening, and moisture will improve again over the lake. As alluded to already, upstream connection is present from the far reaches of the Upper Great Lakes thanks to limited ice this season on Lake Superior. This connection already shows up nicely in satellite imagery. Upstream connecting flow and favorable thermodynamics suggest loosely organized band early this evening should intensify later this evening and certainly overnight, supporting 1-2 inch per hour (perhaps higher) snowfall rates. As it has looked for a while, intensity of the band and snow rates will be capable of supporting warning criteria snowfall. Main uncertainty continues to revolve around if the band can stay in one location long enough as it will oscillate north and south at least a couple times through the night before settling farther south on Thursday morning with arrival of stronger cold front shifting winds to the northwest. Even though there remains uncertainty on the exact amounts (we`ll keep a general range of 6-10 inches for now, though at least locally that may be conservative), there is good agreement from all the high resolution models that one or maybe two stronger bands will impact portions of northern Wayne, northern Cayuga and southern Oswego county later tonight into Thursday morning. When under heart of these stronger bands, the ideal thermodynamic profile shown by forecast soundings of strongest lift occurring in the DGZ will result in snowfall rates likely over 2 inches per hour with associated vsby as low as one-quarter mile. Though there is still uncertainty in how long these bands will become parked over one area, impact from heavy snow and low visibility and fact that these impacts will persist through the Thursday morning commute, including the NY State Thruway and I-81 corridor over Oswego county justified going with lake effect snow warning for all the counties that were previously in the watch. Coordinated this with BGM and ALY. Passage of stronger cold front around daybreak Thursday will move the stronger band more south along more of the Lake Ontario shore. Possible that as the band pushes onshore, a quick burst of snow may extend back westward along the lakeshore even into the Rochester area. Even if that does not occur, should see several inches of snow along the lakeshore into northeast portions of Monroe county near Irondequoit Bay and this will impact the Thursday morning commute, so will go ahead and buffer the warning to the east with an advisory for Monroe county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 KBGM’s map. They’ve got me in the 8-12 bordering on the 12-18! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 35 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: NWS KBUF had to say b-ville just for Tug's sake, lol, even though itll be just to their North, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk T-2"...Lolli's of 3! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: T-2"...Lolli's of 3! Your emoji is actually accurate and not facetious if this forecast were for the I-95 corridor this winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 26 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Your emoji is actually accurate and not facetious if this forecast were for the I-95 corridor this winter! Yeah, it's been awful down there. And here we are bitching about 60-70" so far this season. We suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah, it's been awful down there. And here we are bitching about 60-70" so far this season. We suck. It’s like the Patriots fans complaining about missing out on the playoffs this year to that crew! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Still downtown SYR, just flurries but radar sparking up at the homestead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Gfs quite a snowstorm for wny next week, European a good deal farther east, not that it matters this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I thought some Buffalo people would be going crazy looking at the 18z GFS. A foot in 6 hours, book it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 45 minutes ago, Leelee said: I thought some Buffalo people would be going crazy looking at the 18z GFS. A foot in 6 hours, book it. No point in getting your hopes up this far out... GFS has put that storm anywhere from Chicago to off the Maine coast today. $5 the 0z has it cutting up through Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: No point in getting your hopes up this far out... GFS has put that storm anywhere from Chicago to off the Maine coast today. $5 the 0z has it cutting up through Michigan. I know. Long-range models show this storm track over the Appalachians many times and it happens like 1 in 100. My guess is it goes well east as this looks like some kind of Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 It’s pouring snow here right now. About an inch down already. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Getting hammered here in Hannibal. Jackpot zone for the night it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Huge parachutes falling, piling up fast. Getting close to 2 inches now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Coating of snow here. Maybe a 1/4"? It is snowing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Coating of snow here. Maybe a 1/4"? It is snowing though. I’m not sure exactly where you are in Clay but the heavy stuff must be just to your north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, CNY_WX said: I’m not sure exactly where you are in Clay but the heavy stuff must be just to your north. I'm north and a bit west of the GA Mall. Radar display shows snow just north of here. But picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Syrmax said: I'm north and a bit west of the GA Mall. Radar display shows snow just north of here. But picking up. You’ll be in the thick of it shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 hours ago, Leelee said: I thought some Buffalo people would be going crazy looking at the 18z GFS. A foot in 6 hours, book it. Those are Rochester numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I'm driving on 481 North between 81 and route 31 and it has to be snowing easily over 3" an hour right now I'm doing 10 mph on the highwaySent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 33 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: You’ll be in the thick of it shortly. I just measured 2.1"...not bad for about an hour or so of snow. Maybe it was less than an hour...impressive but on the move... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 It’s let up considerably as the heaviest squalls have moved south of here. I’m at about 3 inches most of which fell between 7:45 and 9:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Revracer800 said: Getting hammered here in Hannibal. Jackpot zone for the night it looks like. I think Hannibal gets hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Nice. Then it warms up and melts it just in time for me to come home on Sunday. lol Went to Clearwater today and enjoyed a beautiful sunset over the Gulf of Mexico...mid 70s and a breeze felt kind of cool. Florida winter reminds me of a cool summer up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Update: 3" as of 11pm. Still going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Snowing pretty good. Band is slightly cellular. Would be nice if that improves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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