BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: As seen on the 12z gfs, potential is there for a decent event if we can time it right, which has been a bitch to do this year lol The GFS has been stringing us along all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 GEFS for Tues-Thurs storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Kbuf must be broken lol No afternoon AFD and no local OBS.. Looks like tonight is another below zero type of night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Not sure if anyone else saw this. Could be a possible collision of two inactive space satellites almost over our heads at 6:39pm tonight. If there is a collision it could be visible to us down on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 45 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Kbuf must be broken lol No afternoon AFD and no local OBS.. Looks like tonight is another below zero type of night.. I was just going to mention...no update since 10am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Yeah they must be having issues .Kbgm is down as well..No OBS atm, radar or updated AFD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 Their registry has been sent back to June of 2016 1037 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 THE WATER TEMPERATURE OFF BUFFALO IS 70 DEGREES. 1037 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 THE WATER TEMPERATURE OFF ROCHESTER IS 70 DEGREES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 They were so bored of this winter that they decided to close up shop for the next 10 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 You know it's been a craptastic winter when you come to the subforum and see a page of Willy Wonka quotes and memes... Golden Ticket to weenieville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Gahhhh...I just want to puke every time I look at the Long Range! Everything wants to cut. Even the clipper the GFS is showing dives SE and then it hits the upper Midwest and cuts. It's unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You know it's been a craptastic winter when you come to the subforum and see a page of Willy Wonka quotes and memes... Golden Ticket to weenieville. Come on Matt. Your telling me you don’t sit in a lollipop garden under a 3’ tall magic mushroom waiting for the next model run to upload to TT. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 This afternoon several shortwaves are rippling across the Pacific, forming eventually a stronger and deeper shortwave trough along the west coast Sunday. These features will eventually form a trough of low pressure over the Plains early next week. Cooler air within this trough will create a baroclinic boundary across the Ohio Valley separating a much warmer airmass that will reside within a Southeast ridge of high pressure. This baroclinic boundary will eventually waver through our region Tuesday and Wednesday, with a surface low passing either over or just to our south Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given the placement of several features over the Pacific (and not sampled well by upper air soundings) that will need to come together over the western U.S., there understandably is quite a bit a uncertainty to the Tuesday - Wednesday time period. The cooler biased GFS would support shovelable snow across our northern 1/3 to 2/3rds of the CWA, while the ECMWF is not as far south with the surface boundary (and cooler air aloft). The majority of the GEFS ensemble members also support this stalled frontal boundary over our region though they remain with great uncertainty as to the placement. For now will continue with chance to low likely PoPs (as the surface low passes near us) during the Tuesday - Wednesday timeframe, with a mix of snow and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Another cutter. Who coulda guessed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Another cutter. Who coulda guessed? Better to be on the rainy side than the snowy side (sweet spot) this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 That’s all she wrote for the Wednesday storm. The only question now is how warm do we actually get. Looks like we could make a run at 60+ if that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 41 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: That’s all she wrote for the Wednesday storm. The only question now is how warm do we actually get. Looks like we could make a run at 60+ if that trend continues. We screwed bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 Those were some ugly midnight runs. I think winter is over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 No, a pattern change to below average temps will happen by late February, just in time for sun angle season. And then we'll get a snowstorm on Easter, to bookend unseasonable events with Veteran's Day. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Leelee said: No, a pattern change to below average temps will happen by late February, just in time for sun angle season. And then we'll get a snowstorm on Easter, to bookend unseasonable events with Veteran's Day. Sadly this is most likely true for us. Spring will not be, I believe last year we had snow otg for the majority of March and a repeat could be in the works. As for the 00z runs the 6z GFS went back to a wny snow event. Bi-polar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 6z back to a lot of snow...the roller coaster continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Bahaha....close, SBW...I prefer to get my highs and depression from Pivotal while moping in the Twizzler Garden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 hours ago, Leelee said: No, a pattern change to below average temps will happen by late February, just in time for sun angle season. And then we'll get a snowstorm on Easter, to bookend unseasonable events with Veteran's Day. This always happens. Spring is ruined by a negative NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 hours ago, Leelee said: No, a pattern change to below average temps will happen by late February, just in time for sun angle season. And then we'll get a snowstorm on Easter, to bookend unseasonable events with Veteran's Day. Unfortunately I believe that you will be correct. A pattern change that will be a month late and will do nobody any good, as we won't be able to build a snow pack. It will keep the ground good and muddy and hearting bills up. Glad I went to the County Maine to get my snowmobiling fix it. It was heaven being there, no shortage of cold and snow anywhere. First morning we woke up in Fort Kent, ME it was -16 F out and a high of 5 or so for the day...That was a good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 It's not bi polar it's called day 5-6 lol You guys just overreact so quickly.. Like the gfs is going to nail the timing of the CF 6 days out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Look at the improvements from D3 compared to D6.. Models get much better as we get closer, right now they are kind of suckish lol Stick with the ensembles and wpc at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 In other news I did get my 5th below zero night, low of -2.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 You can see the European was a touch to far west for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: You can see the European was a touch to far west for us.. So the European shows very little snow for day 5-6..The snow for upstate is split between two different northern stream disturbances over the next few days.. The track goes right over kbuf cwa and we dry slot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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