Upstate/Eastern New York

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

HRDPS shows some very very strong 2-3 inch an hour snowfall rates from 12Z Friday afternoon onwards. Going to be some god awful travel conditions.

[wolfie09]

Total snow rgem

1.2"-1.6LE in the form of snow for a good chunk of ny state..

[Thinksnow18]

I like the 8 to 12 for the Niagara frontier for the duration of the storm

[wolfie09]

The most powerful storm we will ever see 

Obviously something messed up with this model today..

[CNY_WX]

14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

The most powerful storm we will ever see 

Obviously something messed up with this model today..

How many low centers are there?

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

How many low centers are there?

Looks like a hurricane lol. was sup with all the black lines? so glitchy. noticed 12z had it also. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

48 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Looks like a hurricane lol. was sup with all the black lines? so glitchy. noticed 12z had it also. 

The black lines are antimatter caused by the snowicane. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I'm flying from Toronto to Quebec City on Saturday morning for the winter carnival. They're calling for 10-12" there, followed by a high of 5 below on Saturday. I'm hyped, so long as my flight can make it up on Saturday! Hoping the storm is done by late Friday night.

[cleetussnow]

18 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

The black lines are antimatter caused by the snowicane. 

Blackholes DO emit radiation.  932 low is what that says, with like Zillions of other LP centers

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052341
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
641 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly remain overhead tonight with
seasonably cold conditions expected tonight. Much more active
weather returns for Thursday and Friday as a complex winter
storm moves into the North Country. Snow overspreads the region
before daybreak on Thursday, switches to intermittent mixed
precipitation Thursday afternoon and night, and transitions back
to potentially heavy snow during the mid- day hours on Friday.
Snow will taper off to snow showers Friday evening. Winter
travels impacts will be likely for much of the area Thursday and
Friday. Much colder and drier conditions return for Saturday,
but temperatures quickly moderate back into the 30s for the
early to middle portion of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 611 PM EST Wednesday...The calm before a stormy period of
wx this evening as weak 1020 mb high pres is located over
northern Maine. Clouds are quickly overspreading the ne conus
as very fast southwest flow aloft develops ahead of sharpening
full latitude mid/upper lvl trof. Water vapor is showing
multiple waves of enhanced mid lvl moisture with strong
convection acrs the se conus. This moisture and energy aloft
will be moving toward our cwa tonight with waa snow expected to
develop btwn 07z-10z on Thurs. NAM/GFS shows a ribbon of
enhanced 700mb fgen forcing and associated omega couplet, along
with quickly increasing deep layer moisture in the fast flow
aloft. Expect snow to quickly develop with vis dropping below 2
miles during the early morning hours on Thurs, with localized
areas of snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour. This better
dynamics/deep moisture will quickly shift from sw to ne with
precip becoming intermittent during the aftn hours on Thurs,
but a messy and challenging morning commute is likely. Please
allow extra time to reach your destination. Timing of clouds and
precip arrival looks very good, just made some minor
adjustments to hrly temps this evening, as some locations with
dry llvls are falling quickly. However, a warming trend is
likely after midnight, with clouds/precip arriving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 PM EST Wednesday...Difficult to follow up the phenomenal
work of Peter Banacos in writing this AFD, therefore will lend
heavily on his eloquent analysis from earlier today as general
meteorological analysis has not changed significantly from his
forecast earlier this morning.

First off, Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Rutland
and Windsor counties in Vermont & Winter Storm Warnings have been
issued for the remainder of the North Country beginning 4AM Thursday
through 7PM Saturday. Steady snow will overspread from SW to NE by
before daybreak as a warm front approaches the region. Consistent
with previous forecasts, generally between 3-5 inches will fall
mainly during the early morning hours which will likely impact the
morning commute. At time, this snowfall may be briefly heavy, but
will be short-lived as main frontogenetical forcing moves north out
of the area by 18z. After this, periods of light snow and
sleet/freezing rain may mix in, but expected QPF during this
timeframe will be limited therefore anticipating minimal
accumulations during this timeframe with up to 0.10" of ice for the
higher terrain of Rutland and Windsor counties. A brief period of
rain may be possible across far southeastern Windsor county late
Thursday/Friday, however a small difference in a couple degrees may
lead to an additional light glazing of ice.

As previous mentioned by Pete, things get interesting for Friday as
synoptic and mesoscale factor comes into align for a period of heavy
snowfall beginning Friday morning into the afternoon hours. Strong
upper level forcing rapidly intensifies the approaching low ejecting
out of the Tennessee River Valley with center of 700mb low pressure
tracking right over the North Country during the 15-18z timeframe on
Friday. This positions somewhere in the our CWA in a highly
favorable frontogenetic area for heavy banded snowfall.
Deterministic guidance varies on the exact position of this feature,
however current thinking for the best chances for this will be
across an axis extending from the northern Adirondacks into northern
Vermont. Unfortunately, thermal profiles at initial develop of this
feature indicate 850mb 0C line bisecting portions of north/central
Vermont, including the Champlain Valley, therefore tricky to
determine exactly how much snowfall will fall from this band as
questions of p-type still remain. Forcing becomes sufficiently
strong enough as baroclinicity increases that precipitation should
become all snow by 18z providing a healthy dose of heavy snowfall
for the Friday evening commute. In this band, snowfall rates could
exceed 1-2" per hour, with deterministic guidance indicating the
potential for upwards of 6 inches within a 6 hour timeframe between
18-21z Friday. Just for those interested, probabilistic snowfall
guidance shows the high end for our northern zones of New York &
Vermont receiving upwards of 20" for the duration of the event, with
the 50th percentile indicating generally between 10-14" for these
zones. For Rutland and Windsor counties, generally between 5-7
inches are expected for the duration of the event as the potential
for mixed precipitation will be greatest across these areas.

Snowfall will come to an end late Friday night as Arctic high
pressure moves in. Pressure gradient remains quite strong as sub
970mb low moves off towards Greenland. Areas of blowing snow may be
possible Friday night into Saturday as winds remain gusty out of the
north/northwest between 10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 25 mph
possible. Temperatures will also fall with lows in the single digits
above and below zero. Wind chill headlines may need to be considered
across the northern Adirondacks during this timeframe, but at the
moment remain below criteria in the mid teens below zero.

&&

 

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

Great Write up by Burlington NWS! 
 

 

 

 

00 FXUS61 KBTV 052341 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 641 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will briefly remain overhead tonight with seasonably cold conditions expected tonight. Much more active weather returns for Thursday and Friday as a complex winter storm moves into the North Country. Snow overspreads the region before daybreak on Thursday, switches to intermittent mixed precipitation Thursday afternoon and night, and transitions back to potentially heavy snow during the mid- day hours on Friday. Snow will taper off to snow showers Friday evening. Winter travels impacts will be likely for much of the area Thursday and Friday. Much colder and drier conditions return for Saturday, but temperatures quickly moderate back into the 30s for the early to middle portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 611 PM EST Wednesday...The calm before a stormy period of wx this evening as weak 1020 mb high pres is located over northern Maine. Clouds are quickly overspreading the ne conus as very fast southwest flow aloft develops ahead of sharpening full latitude mid/upper lvl trof. Water vapor is showing multiple waves of enhanced mid lvl moisture with strong convection acrs the se conus. This moisture and energy aloft will be moving toward our cwa tonight with waa snow expected to develop btwn 07z-10z on Thurs. NAM/GFS shows a ribbon of enhanced 700mb fgen forcing and associated omega couplet, along with quickly increasing deep layer moisture in the fast flow aloft. Expect snow to quickly develop with vis dropping below 2 miles during the early morning hours on Thurs, with localized areas of snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour. This better dynamics/deep moisture will quickly shift from sw to ne with precip becoming intermittent during the aftn hours on Thurs, but a messy and challenging morning commute is likely. Please allow extra time to reach your destination. Timing of clouds and precip arrival looks very good, just made some minor adjustments to hrly temps this evening, as some locations with dry llvls are falling quickly. However, a warming trend is likely after midnight, with clouds/precip arriving. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 344 PM EST Wednesday...Difficult to follow up the phenomenal work of Peter Banacos in writing this AFD, therefore will lend heavily on his eloquent analysis from earlier today as general meteorological analysis has not changed significantly from his forecast earlier this morning. First off, Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Rutland and Windsor counties in Vermont & Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the remainder of the North Country beginning 4AM Thursday through 7PM Saturday. Steady snow will overspread from SW to NE by before daybreak as a warm front approaches the region. Consistent with previous forecasts, generally between 3-5 inches will fall mainly during the early morning hours which will likely impact the morning commute. At time, this snowfall may be briefly heavy, but will be short-lived as main frontogenetical forcing moves north out of the area by 18z. After this, periods of light snow and sleet/freezing rain may mix in, but expected QPF during this timeframe will be limited therefore anticipating minimal accumulations during this timeframe with up to 0.10" of ice for the higher terrain of Rutland and Windsor counties. A brief period of rain may be possible across far southeastern Windsor county late Thursday/Friday, however a small difference in a couple degrees may lead to an additional light glazing of ice. As previous mentioned by Pete, things get interesting for Friday as synoptic and mesoscale factor comes into align for a period of heavy snowfall beginning Friday morning into the afternoon hours. Strong upper level forcing rapidly intensifies the approaching low ejecting out of the Tennessee River Valley with center of 700mb low pressure tracking right over the North Country during the 15-18z timeframe on Friday. This positions somewhere in the our CWA in a highly favorable frontogenetic area for heavy banded snowfall. Deterministic guidance varies on the exact position of this feature, however current thinking for the best chances for this will be across an axis extending from the northern Adirondacks into northern Vermont. Unfortunately, thermal profiles at initial develop of this feature indicate 850mb 0C line bisecting portions of north/central Vermont, including the Champlain Valley, therefore tricky to determine exactly how much snowfall will fall from this band as questions of p-type still remain. Forcing becomes sufficiently strong enough as baroclinicity increases that precipitation should become all snow by 18z providing a healthy dose of heavy snowfall for the Friday evening commute. In this band, snowfall rates could exceed 1-2" per hour, with deterministic guidance indicating the potential for upwards of 6 inches within a 6 hour timeframe between 18-21z Friday. Just for those interested, probabilistic snowfall guidance shows the high end for our northern zones of New York & Vermont receiving upwards of 20" for the duration of the event, with the 50th percentile indicating generally between 10-14" for these zones. For Rutland and Windsor counties, generally between 5-7 inches are expected for the duration of the event as the potential for mixed precipitation will be greatest across these areas. Snowfall will come to an end late Friday night as Arctic high pressure moves in. Pressure gradient remains quite strong as sub 970mb low moves off towards Greenland. Areas of blowing snow may be possible Friday night into Saturday as winds remain gusty out of the north/northwest between 10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 25 mph possible. Temperatures will also fall with lows in the single digits above and below zero. Wind chill headlines may need to be considered across the northern Adirondacks during this timeframe, but at the moment remain below criteria in the mid teens below zero. &&

 

[Syrmax]

Thats a helluva AFD. My area's AFD reads, essentially,...snow, followed by mix and rain, then some more rain changing to periods of snow Friday.  Then clearing. Then Spring comes in late March.

[vortmax]

The GOM is open for business. 

 

[vortmax]

What ya thinking Tim? 

[CNY_WX]

50 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I'm flying from Toronto to Quebec City on Saturday morning for the winter carnival. They're calling for 10-12" there, followed by a high of 5 below on Saturday. I'm hyped, so long as my flight can make it up on Saturday! Hoping the storm is done by late Friday night.

I love Quebec City.  It’s about a 6 hour drive from Brewerton but it’s like crossing the ocean to Europe.  My wife and I went there in 2008 for the 400th anniversary of the city’s founding by Samuel de Champlain.  Celine Dion gave a free concert on the Plains of Abraham.  I had planned a trip back about a year ago but my elderly dog was too ill for us to leave so we cancelled.  My wife is retiring in 10 days so we will have more time to get there.  I said we should go in the winter but she told me to get lost, lol.  She’s not a big winter weather fan!

[CNY_WX]

2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

The GOM is open for business. 

 

There was severe weather in Mississippi and Louisiana today.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Tornado warnings have been going off all day long!

[rochesterdave]

Where is Tim? 

[tim123]

So is the nam going to be nuts again. Hope it gives rochester 2 feet again. Lol

[tim123]

Dave this may be the biggest storm since 2016? When we got 27 inches lol. But a nice 12 to 18 would be cool. 

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

500mb through HR12 once again looks deeper again. Past 4 runs same trend.

[tim123]

Father nw maybe

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

This has the looks of another bomb. GET the weenies ready.

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

Just now, tim123 said:

Father nw maybe

I wouldnt doubt it with that H5

[rochesterdave]

I hope it’s not much further west. Just as strong as 18z so far

[tim123]

Perfect track would be state college to bgm to Utica. Lol

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

wow it closed off at hr 21 for a second. did anyone else notice that at 500? thank god it quickly opened back up or it would likely cut straight up. So dynamic.The H5 is really digging those DM contours into the gulf aiding the trough.

[BuffaloWeather]

Storm has started here, light/mod snow.

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

WAY warmer but also has a stronger precip shield. Still stays all snow in Plattsburgh regardless but may cause issues in place like SYR

[rochesterdave]

NAM looks tiny bit warmer, tiny bit NW. no more!! Lol