PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Divide this total by 2 and it would still be acceptable You just stopped my heart, Dead cold! I need to buy a yard stick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 00Z it'll be all taint, lol! Nah, I think we're in a great spot for this one although it is an anomalous track so we'll see. These types of events you either get jacked or raped, lol! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Yes please.. Kinda like some of the western leaning gefs members..(even more west lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 My county's WSW (issued by KBGM) has 1-3" tonight n Thurs with some ice accum and 4-8" Friday. Yaaaaaaawn. Where's the love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 Don't forget the inevitable last minute 50 mile NW jog. This is a rapidly intensifying low, which usually leads to a further NW event in comparison to a weakening low going further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I need more evidence of this, like a lot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 HPC 12"+ Probs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Slight to moderate chance of 4"+ round 1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 The jet coupling on the 18Z NAM looks like a hot spot for upstate NY. All the way from KROC to Watertown. Ridiculous omega values on the sounding basically perfectly co-located the the DGZ (shallow but still a good sounding). This looks like fat dendrites are gonna be falling during an awful commute Friday morning and then some... All this thanks to being right between the left exit region of the trough and right entrance of the jet to the north. This, coupled with a juiced deformation band with ton of stretching and frontogenesis..sounds like it'll be ripping. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I need more evidence of this, like a lot lol I know. I won't believe it until I'm in hell driving through it. I'll at least get a chance to test my new truck tires in some man snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, Paulie21 said: The jet coupling on the 18Z NAM looks like a hot spot for upstate NY. All the way from KROC to Watertown. Ridiculous omega values on the sounding basically perfectly co-located the the DGZ (shallow but still a good sounding). This looks like fat dendrites are gonna be falling during an awful commute Friday morning and then some... All this thanks to being right between the left exit region of the trough and right entrance of the jet to the north. This, coupled with a juiced deformation band with ton of stretching and frontogenesis..sounds like it'll be ripping. THANKS PAUL. you do not post often but it is always very informative. Soundings is my next goal. I have trouble figuring them out and reading those values. Are you looking at 700mb or 850mb fronto to assess best banding potential? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Kbuf for overnight through tomorrow.. Precip first in the form of snow then changing to a wintry mix tied to the jet and warm air advection aloft quickly spreads to the northern Ohio valley and lower Great Lakes late this evening. Trend that showed up yesterday with quicker arrival of widespread precip continues, with main warm air advection driven precip sweeping across region from the southwest by daybreak on Thursday. Ptype with this initial wave of precip will mainly be snow though a mix will develop on the southern end of it as warm layer aloft (H85-H8) surges into western NY. Ptype will change to mix of fzra, sleet and snow over the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes by 12z, but then as the warm layer aloft slides more east than north, the warm layer aloft and potential for mixed precip will struggle through Buffalo and Rochester by late morning and feasibly may not reach the northern reaches of the Niagara Frontier and the North Country at all. Though steadier precip will lift through by mid morning, there will be intervals of additional steadier precip through the rest of the day as region remains within right entrance region of 180+ kt jet and along or just northwest of tight baroclinic zone. Sfc low and sfc warm front all the while will remain south of our area, though there could be increased low-level convergence from inverted trough extending north from the sfc low. Certainly could see precip taper with the occasional strip out of deeper moisture/DGZ. For now just focused the ptype based on the warm layer aloft. Seems the greatest chance of snow to freezing drizzle/drizzle would be over northern portions of the Niagara Frontier. Overall in terms of snow and ice amounts, this forecast did not change much from previous one. However, there is now some higher snow totals from late tonight through Thursday afternoon from Niagara county to the Rochester area as that part of the region may stay right around zero aloft as the ECMWF was showing ydy and now the NAM and Canadian indicate. GFS which remains a warm outlier has come down slightly with its warm layer aloft. Only change to headlines for this first portion of this double barelled event was to extend the winter weather advisory til 23z for the areas from Buffalo to Rochester, but otherwise the headlines were left intact. Morning commute on Thursday will be impacted by the wintry mix and its possible the evening commute over parts of northern Niagara Frontier could be impacted especially as the wintry mix begins to change back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Part 2 Thursday night an upper level trough will swing across the Central Great Lakes, with a strong surface high pressure over western Ontario Canada providing cold, northerly flow across much of our region. A surface low will be deepening as it advances northeastward up the spine of the Appalachians Thursday night, this also along a tight baroclinic boundary below 700 hPa. To start Thursday night, surface temperatures will remain around freezing across the interior Southern Tier and through the Finger Lakes, and perhaps to the southern Tug Hill region...with a still elevated warm layer aloft. This scenario will continue the threat of mixed precipitation (sleet and freezing rain) until deeper colder air from the northwest seeps southeastward. This colder air will transition precipitation across the entire region to snow by around midnight. Later Thursday night a 850 - 700 hPa frontogentic boundary will form to the northwest of the surface low. This boundary will serve as a focus for higher snowfall, that will also be enhanced Friday as a closed 700 hPa low develops over WNY. Synoptic snows Thursday night will become greater towards the east as this frontogenetic forcing increases...with snowfall rates of an inch per hour likely under this band of snow. As the synoptic snows pull out eastward Friday, a colder airmass aloft will support lake effect snow under a northerly flow. Bufkit soundings display a decent amount of moisture within the snow dendritic growth zone, and inversion heights rising Friday towards 6 to 8K feet. Snow ratios will rapidly increase within this colder airmass and additional lake effect snow will fall. Will maintain the watch as is, with potential for a half a foot of snow...with upwards towards a foot of snow possible along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario, and also the Chautauqua Ridge. To the east where a stronger frontogentic forcing will be found again here upwards to a foot of snow will be possible. Lowest amounts will be around Metro Buffalo and towards Niagara Falls where synoptic snows will be lower under less forcing aloft and also not within a favorable location for lake effect snow under a north to northwest flow. Surface high pressure will then build towards our region Friday and Friday night, with this feature and its drier air weakening the lake snows and providing clearing to the North Country. With 850 hPa temperatures dropping well into the negative teens, temperatures Friday night over a fresh snowpack will lower into the lower teens across the Lake Plain, and single digits inland. Across the North Country where skies have the greatest probability of clearing...overnight lows could drop well into the negative single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Only change to headlines for this first portion of this double barelled event was to extend the winter weather advisory til 23z for the areas from Buffalo to Rochester I like this part...and this (on top of round 1): with upwards towards a foot of snow possible along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 That's higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: THANKS PAUL. you do not post often but it is always very informative. Soundings is my next goal. I have trouble figuring them out and reading those values. Are you looking at 700mb or 850mb fronto to assess best banding potential? Thank you. Just glancing at the sounding, the blue box on the left I circled implies strength of upward vertical velocities. This is a rather strong signature and almost a textbook case because it is essentially in the same layer as the DGZ. DGZ is the dendritic growth zone, an thermal area between -12 to -18 C (highlights on the skew-T here with red dashed lines I made). Soundings highlight any saturated (has to be saturated) column with yellow on the temperatures line. The DGZ will help produce larger flakes and the lift will help flakes stay in that layer and make larger aggregates as they eventually fall. The reason for this strong signatures of upward vertical velocities is due to jet coupling enhancing lift (left exit region of trough and right entrance region of jet to the north), as well as frontogenesis aloft. 850mb is somewhat weak in this scenario. Looks better ~700mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 18z rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 18z rgem.. 975 is quite strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 This is just for 1st event. First event looks to be more sloppy 1:14 or so, next event is around 1:20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 trough on gfs is sharper/ higher heights at hr 36 should be an improvement based on h5 alone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 18z has GFS further NW. NE warms up quite a bit before it passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: 18z has GFS further NW. Mmmmmm taint... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Mmmmmm taint... You want to be as close as you can to that line though to get maximum snowfall rates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Ok. NW movement can stop now. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: Ok. NW movement can stop now. Lol A mid-970s LP is gonna be NW...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Nice to see some headlines for a change...only getting to 33 here, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You want to be as close as you can to that line though to get maximum snowfall rates. And this is why I said “Mmmmmm!“. Gotta taste it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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