PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: I'm pretty sure that's both systems lol It's not that slow.. It looks decent for an ensemble. The discrepancies are noise. I liked the 12z Suites for the most part. Onto 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Say goodbye to the rain, at least for now..lol According to the gfs most of the events come with temps in the mid 20s... Wednesday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday Snow. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Each update moves a bit more east lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Each update moves a bit more east lol seems like they dont wanna create panic with a very iffy forecast! Smart move i think. Excuse my use of contractions. To used to facebook talk. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I feel like I’m setting myself up for the biggest disappointment of the winter. It’s too soon to be in the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Icon definitely trended colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Gfs coming in hot and heavy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Per gfs snow starts in 84-90 hours. from wave 2 that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Wave 3 is way S and E of 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Odd looking run. Convective feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I’ll take it. Leaves room for adjustment NW. beats taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 It’s a good track. Worry about precip shield later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Or, instead of it being a storm to our North and West, it is now transitioning it to a storm to our South and East. I wouldn't be surprised if the Albany area ends of getting hit the hardest. Like wolfie said, an ideal track for Western and Central NY seems tough to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 A low in 980s over nyc is usually nice for roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Not bad at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Friday is technically a whiff as we see almost no precip verbatim.. Almost all the comes on Thursday.. Nothing to be to concerned about, yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Pretty sweet distribution. Lots of those are in the sweet spot!! I’m not gonna sweat the precip shield on a single GFS OP at 18z. As Tim said, a NYC LP is typically good for anyone East of BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 The issue is how it got there.. We need this in WV going NE not the VA coast.. System actually goes through snj and SE of CC. Heaviest snow is 100 miles NW of the Storm center, we need something west of NJ/NYC for best results.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Lots of nice hits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I think it’s going to come down to how wound up this system gets. A wound up deeper storm will throw heavier snow back our way. A weaker wave will keep precipitation closer to the coast. The 12Z GFS has a 979 mb low over the Berkshires while 18Z has a strung out 980 something system over the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 A deeper system likely tracks further inland. Weaker stays further SE. My take. Who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Lots of great hits on GEFS. Right where we want to be- I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Forecast solutions are in more agreement as of the 2/2 12z guidance package for the late week storm (Wed night- Friday.) A deepening trough will be in place across the central CONUS Thursday while cyclogenesis takes place across the southeast U.S. While previous model runs has taken this surface low across the Appalachians and even to the west of the eastern Great Lakes, it is looking more like this system will track along or east of the Appalachians before moving towards southern New England Friday. This leads to a colder solution for Western and North Central NY, however the chance for rain and a wintry mix remains at the start of the event. Due to the spread of model guidance the past few days, changes in the track of this surface low are likely. Looking at some features with this potential event, a majority of thermal profiles depict snow moving into western NY late Wednesday night and spreading northward into the North Country Thursday. The EC remains the warmer solution where a wintry mix and/or rain will move into western NY. The forcing for this initial period of widespread precipitation is associated with a strong low- level jet transporting moisture while riding over a warm front. There may be a tight pressure gradient across the region into Thursday night and Friday which could result in northern areas seeing accumulating snow while areas closer to Pennsylvania having ice and/or little snow accumulation. Winter weather headlines are possible during this initial round of wintry weather. Rapid deepening of surface low pressure is possible across the Mid- Atlantic Thursday night into Friday. This may result in another round of widespread snow with a chance of wintry mix towards inland New York State. Winter weather headlines are possible during this time. The low should move out to sea Friday night into Saturday and cold air advection will spread across the forecast area. Lake snows are likely behind this system and may result in more winter weather headlines through the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Most important 0z runs since last night.. P.S.Shakira is so friggin hott . (Don't tell the wife) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Most important 0z runs since last night.. P.S.Shakira is so friggin hott . (Don't tell the wife) Is the wife a weather weenie as well? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Is the wife a weather weenie as well? Haha She was until we moved here lol Now I think she secretly roots for no snow.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 The 00Z NAM showing a High Pressure pushing south pretty quickly in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame makes me nervous about suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 ...And there you have it. Waaaaay south on the NAM for Thursday's system. In one day, we've gone from Cutter to Suppression issues. With suppression starting to show itself on some of the other models...I am Biting my fingers and tongue hard from any more complaining about this winter at the moment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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