TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 9:07 PM, Syrmax said: Yeah, apart from model wobbles this looks like 3 or 4" of snow over a few days. My snow depth is still 6-7" after a ferocious couple of melting days. The LES is a red herring here as once it starts up on the Tug it's hard to dislodge it. Maybe a few hours of snow as it pushes south, falls of the lake and dies. Meh. Expand So I am heading back to PA to get some things from my parents, as my wife and I are moving into a new place in the Lysander area. Guess when I am leaving? Friday evening through Saturday afternoon...right when the best chances are for LES here. Get your shovel ready...LOL 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Wah? Big swings between low and high amounts. This falls in the middle. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 9:22 PM, vortmax said: Wah? Big swings between low and high amounts. This falls in the middle. Expand Now that’s a map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I can just imagine what some of these SR models are gonna show lol 3k Nam basically has 14-24" from me to the tug just by 1am Friday, NWS has 90% pops through Saturday afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Still a big hit for WNY but much more reasonable lol Last run had over 2 feet at this juncture. Obviously more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 9:36 PM, wolfie09 said: I can just imagine what some of these SR models are gonna show lol 3k Nam basically has 14-24" from me to the tug just by 1am Friday, NWS has 90% pops through Saturday afternoon.. Expand And best snows for us look to be Friday as the band sits on us. Keeping my fingers crossed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 9:47 PM, wolfie09 said: Still a big hit for WNY but much more reasonable lol Last run had over 2 feet at this juncture. Obviously more to come. Expand Ouch for Roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 10:01 PM, rochesterdave said: Ouch for Roc Expand Same here in SYR...KBGM hasn't even pulled the trigger for Northern Oneida county yet, and they look to be assured Warning snows. They're being patient. Probably will post a Watch later this eve or tomorrow morning more likely for that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 SREF's continue to creep up for SYR. Not a buyer but the Mean (after removing 2 of the anomalously highest members), is up to 8" thru 06Z Saturday, which is basically thru about midnight Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 10:29 PM, Syrmax said: SREF's continue to creep up for SYR. Not a buyer but the Mean (after removing 2 of the anomalously highest members), is up to 8" thru 06Z Saturday, which is basically thru about midnight Friday. Expand Will we be surprised? Or disappointed? The Finger Lakes Fryer looks to be ruining the synoptic part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Updated map from KBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 11:34 PM, TugHillMatt said: Will we be surprised? Or disappointed? The Finger Lakes Fryer looks to be ruining the synoptic part. Expand Fryer? Man this makes me laugh growing up in Monmouth County NJ! I know I will lose this perspective eventually but I still have it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 11:34 PM, TugHillMatt said: Will we be surprised? Or disappointed? The Finger Lakes Fryer looks to be ruining the synoptic part. Expand Dunno. My expectations are low but not zero...we have another day of model runs for more adjustments. I'm going snowshoeing up on the Tug Saturday...a friend and his brother from Philly. That guy is in for a shock. Heh heh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Nice to see a WNY and ON special for once. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 11:42 PM, Syrmax said: Dunno. My expectations are low but not zero...we have another day of model runs for more adjustments. I'm going snowshoeing up on the Tug Saturday...a friend and his brother from Philly. That guy is in for a shock. Heh heh. Expand There's a chance that the depth of snow on the tug will be more combined than he's seen in 4 seasons... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Quite a bit of overall Precipitation.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 This animal is still trending S&E and there is plenty of time for 75-100 mile jog to the SE and we'll all be smiling. This is gonna be a long drawn event where we end up with over 15" but bbn itll take it days to do so, lol!I still dont think these models know exactly what kind of phase we got here cause it a very complicated Upper LVL event so this too may have lots of surprises up its sleeve so we wait.One thing that is certain is that its gonna rain something fierce come tomorrow afternoon before it starts to attempt to change over so....All in all, I may be an optimist but I think we squeeze out at least a foot but if things line up a bit better then we can be talking about a lot more so we'll see real soon!Good Luck all!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 11:40 PM, 96blizz said: Fryer? Man this makes me laugh growing up in Monmouth County NJ! I know I will lose this perspective eventually but I still have it! Expand Hah. I grew up in Lancaster County, PA...very similar climate to yours in NJ. I am traumatized for life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 11:42 PM, Syrmax said: Dunno. My expectations are low but not zero...we have another day of model runs for more adjustments. I'm going snowshoeing up on the Tug Saturday...a friend and his brother from Philly. That guy is in for a shock. Heh heh. Expand Considering they haven't even had an inch there this winter....they will see 30 to 50 times more snow than they have all winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 11:58 PM, CNY-LES FREAK said: This animal is still trending S&E and there is plenty of time for 75-100 mile jog to the SE and we'll all be smiling. This is gonna be a long drawn event where we end up with over 15" but bbn itll take it days to do so, lol! I still dont think these models know exactly what kind of phase we got here cause it a very complicated Upper LVL event so this too may have lots of surprises up its sleeve so we wait. One thing that is certain is that its gonna rain something fierce come tomorrow afternoon before it starts to attempt to change over so.... All in all, I may be an optimist but I think we squeeze out at least a foot but if things line up a bit better then we can be talking about a lot more so we'll see real soon! Good Luck all! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Expand I think there will be adjustments right up until go time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 11:59 PM, TugHillMatt said: Hah. I grew up in Lancaster County, PA...very similar climate to yours in NJ. I am traumatized for life. Expand Monmouth county has actually been a little JP zone (relatively speaking) the last decade or so..Keep in mind LT average for Freehold NJ is 23"..They can get some fierce bands off the Atlantic and be just inland enough to be snow.. The last two years have been terrible though. 2009 - 2010, 74.2" 2010 - 2011, 61.1" 2011 - 2012: 8.5" 2012 - 2013: 38.2” 2013 - 2014: 73.3" 2014 - 2015: 54" 2015 - 2016: 40.9" 2016 - 2017: 28.7" 2017 - 2018: 62.9”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Looks good for wny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/26/2020 at 12:13 AM, wolfie09 said: Monmouth county has actually been a little JP zone (relatively speaking) the last decade or so..Keep in mind LT average for Freehold NJ is 23"..They can get some fierce bands off the Atlantic and be just inland enough to be snow.. The last two years have been terrible though. 2009 - 2010, 74.2" 2010 - 2011, 61.1" 2011 - 2012: 8.5" 2012 - 2013: 38.2” 2013 - 2014: 73.3" 2014 - 2015: 54" 2015 - 2016: 40.9" 2016 - 2017: 28.7" 2017 - 2018: 62.9”. Expand Yeah. After I left. What a kick in the baguettes. EDIT: I was there for the Boxing Day Blizzard visiting my parents for Christmas (they’re still there) and it was my second favorite storm behind 1996. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 I for one am not rooting for a farther SE track, I'll take the rain lol No need to mess up the flow.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/26/2020 at 12:17 AM, wolfie09 said: Looks good for wny Expand Definitely a click or two west. One run. BUF and IAG still look to jackpot. Areas South of BUF in double lollipop zone. 2 feet plus! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 11:44 PM, Snowstorms said: Nice to see a WNY and ON special for once. Expand I'm telling you it's like what I've read about the great leap year storm of February 1984. Not sure if anyone here is old enough to remember it - I was 3 going on 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/26/2020 at 12:18 AM, 96blizz said: Yeah. After I left. What a kick in the baguettes. Expand Oh, so YOU and I are at fault for destroying the snow climatology of Central NY! Some of the guilt has now lifted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/26/2020 at 12:20 AM, TugHillMatt said: Oh, so YOU and I are at fault for destroying the snow climatology of Central NY! Some of the guilt has now lifted. Expand You are still "Patient Zero".... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/26/2020 at 12:24 AM, Syrmax said: You are still "Patient Zero".... Expand Have a jet that can take me to the North Pole! Time to get this Polar Vortex to split and flee. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/26/2020 at 12:20 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm telling you it's like what I've read about the great leap year storm of February 1984. Not sure if anyone here is old enough to remember it - I was 3 going on 4. Expand Feb 1984? For f*cks sake I was sleeping next to nuclear armed Harpoons and punching holes in the ocean on deployment in the Arctic ocean as a 21 y.o. Fun times. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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