PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: What a beauty 1.5" LE all enhancement/lake effect and euro doesn't usually show lake effect well lol congrats Wolfie. This is your event. Enjoy you deserve it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Obviously 0 chance of this actually verifying but I think this is the most I’ve ever seen inside of day 3 from a synoptic system for BUF ever. Keeping it for posterity. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Obviously 0 chance of this actually verifying but I think this is the most I’ve ever seen inside of day 3 from a synoptic system for BUF ever. Keeping it for posterity. My new desktop background. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: My new desktop background. KBUF at 1:30...no update...non believers... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 48 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Time for me to go back to Florida? P.S. to all the GEFS maps being posted...Are we really going to believe the GEFS??? They have showed that exact same snowfall setup sooooooooo many times this winter...and failed. I would love to believe them, as they look good for us in Central NY, but I am highly skeptical. Better book a flight soon! (I just paid for my hotels for my Italy trip in late april a week ago...and now Corona is exploding there...). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: KBUF at 1:30...no update...non believers... The 130 update isnt the real update. You can use that highlighting tool they have to see that nothing has changed since the 917am discussion. Not that I really think they will change their tune all that much, but I expect more from the real update that comes out mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 .Eastern Half of North America... Preference: Blend of 12Z NAM/ECMWF/UKMET Confidence: Average Gradual phasing of northern and southern streams will lead to mature cyclone development over the northeastern U.S. and southeast Canada by Thursday. The then-mature, full latitude trough will occupy the eastern U.S. for another day or two. The models are all generally agreeable aloft. The main deviant model, as noted overnight, was the 00Z Canadian with its more fully developed coastal low. This corrected on the 12Z run, although the Canadian now lifts the primary low center farther northwest into Quebec compared to other guidance. Most solutions do have a semblance of a double-barrel low, with the primary tracking into Quebec, and another low attempting to form along the coast from Maine to the Canadian Maritimes. In the 12Z cycle what stands out is a sudden and stark deepening trend in the GFS, which takes the primary surface low down to 983 mb at 28/00z. The 12Z GEFS mean supported this to a degree, and even the ECMWF did offer a deeper surface low than before, but the GFS is more greatly developed at all levels, producing 500-mb heights that are 60 meters colder than the other models on Thursday. The GFS gets there by means of a sharper, more energetic wave emerging from the southern Rockies this evening. Although 500-250 mb observed winds were impressive at Albuquerque and Amarillo this morning, there does not appear to be anything especially impressive about this wave, and the fact that the NAM - whose bias is strong and deep - does not support this trend, perhaps speaks volumes. We therefore prefer the NAM along with the consistent ECMWF and UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: .Eastern Half of North America... Preference: Blend of 12Z NAM/ECMWF/UKMET Confidence: Average Gradual phasing of northern and southern streams will lead to mature cyclone development over the northeastern U.S. and southeast Canada by Thursday. The then-mature, full latitude trough will occupy the eastern U.S. for another day or two. The models are all generally agreeable aloft. The main deviant model, as noted overnight, was the 00Z Canadian with its more fully developed coastal low. This corrected on the 12Z run, although the Canadian now lifts the primary low center farther northwest into Quebec compared to other guidance. Most solutions do have a semblance of a double-barrel low, with the primary tracking into Quebec, and another low attempting to form along the coast from Maine to the Canadian Maritimes. In the 12Z cycle what stands out is a sudden and stark deepening trend in the GFS, which takes the primary surface low down to 983 mb at 28/00z. The 12Z GEFS mean supported this to a degree, and even the ECMWF did offer a deeper surface low than before, but the GFS is more greatly developed at all levels, producing 500-mb heights that are 60 meters colder than the other models on Thursday. The GFS gets there by means of a sharper, more energetic wave emerging from the southern Rockies this evening. Although 500-250 mb observed winds were impressive at Albuquerque and Amarillo this morning, there does not appear to be anything especially impressive about this wave, and the fact that the NAM - whose bias is strong and deep - does not support this trend, perhaps speaks volumes. We therefore prefer the NAM along with the consistent ECMWF and UKMET. Weird post as euro is huge hit and other is not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 It's about 500 mb which has nothing to do with verbatim lol just like verification scores mean very little when it comes to sensible weather.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 12z Nam had almost 7" for kbuf using 10-1 , euro at the same time had 10"..So a good 6"-12" seems possible.. The biggest difference is central NY where it's much colder like the gefs..16 of the 20 members had at least 6".. Let's see what 18z shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 WSW updated. ..WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 feet possible. Snowfall rates may reach over 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 40 to 45 mph resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow. NYZ012-019-020-085-260400- /O.EXT.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0000Z-200229T2300Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 244 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible. Snowfall rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 First map of many.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 WSW up for WNY ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in significant blowing snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 Really good discussion: What`s concerning about this is that compared to 24 hours ago...the track of the surface low has trended notably further to the southeast in almost all of the available guidance...which is a marked reversal of the further northwestward track seen over the previous few days. This change has important implications for far western New York...where thermal profiles now appear to turn colder faster and allow for a faster changeover from rain to snow Wednesday night...thereby raising the specter of a period of accumulating moderate to heavy snow from later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. While there is still a fair amount of disagreement amongst the various model packages on potential snowfall amounts stemming from this...at least some advisory-type accumulations are starting to appear likely across far western New York...with warning-criteria snowfall amounts possible given some of the more impressive model solutions (most notably the ECMWF). With this and the abrupt shift in the guidance both in mind...we have elected to hoist a new Winter Storm Watch for the Niagara Frontier for Wednesday night and Thursday morning...and have also moved up the start time of the existing Watch for the Southern Tier to cover this potential initial synoptic snowfall...in addition to the lake enhancement that is still expected to begin there later Wednesday night. The heavy snow potential from Wednesday night will rapidly exit Thursday morning. Abundant wrap around moisture will produce areas of light snow Thursday across much of the region, especially Western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region, with a relative minima in snow by afternoon for the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Lake enhanced snow will be embedded within the general area of synoptic snow as cold air rapidly deepens and lake induced equilibrium levels rise to near 10K feet. Off Lake Erie, lake enhanced and orographically enhanced snow will focus on the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and western Wyoming County. The deepest moisture and best synoptic scale support will be in the morning, and this should support a steady moderate, to marginally heavy snow in the upslope areas east of Lake Erie. The deeper moisture and better synoptic ascent will move away by afternoon, resulting in a lowering of snowfall rates across upslope areas. Off Lake Ontario, westerly flow will become established by late morning or midday, with a strong band of lake effect/lake enhanced snow targeting the Tug Hill region by afternoon. This will be embedded within a broader area of light synoptic snow. The snowfall rates will continue to get heavier as the afternoon progresses and cold air deepens, and boundary layer flow becomes better aligned. Thursday night through Saturday the vertically stacked low will cutoff from the westerlies and drift slowly east across southern Quebec. Model guidance has remained fairly consistent with this idea since yesterday, although the latest models have a little more in the way of widespread light synoptic snow through the period. The synoptically forced snow will increase Friday afternoon and continue Friday night through Saturday morning as the western tail of the mid level trough moves southeast across the eastern Great Lakes, and the deepest synoptic scale moisture crosses the area. This will produce light to borderline moderate snow accumulations across much of the region, with a relative minima across the valleys of Livingston and Allegany counties where downsloping will minimize snowfall. The synoptic scale pattern continues to support the idea of a significant and long lasting lake effect/lake enhanced snow event. CIPS analogs continue to return impressive analog means in terms of snowfall, and also return some notable dates of analog events. The large scale pattern also fits the climatology from our local analog research for major lake effect events for east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Off Lake Erie... Persistent westerly flow will support lake enhanced upslope snow across the higher terrain east of the lake Thursday night through Saturday, with boundary layer flow slowly veering more northwesterly late Friday night and Saturday. The highest snowfall rates will likely occur Friday afternoon and Friday night when deeper synoptic scale moisture and support move back over Western NY. The lake enhanced snow will then decrease quickly in areal coverage and intensity through the day Saturday as deeper moisture pulls away, and inversion heights begin to lower. As far as snowfall amounts go, storm totals are likely to reach 1-2 feet across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie along the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and western Wyoming County. Some localized amounts of over 2 feet are possible. Note, this does not include the synoptic snow that precedes the main lake effect event. Off Lake Ontario... The heaviest snow will likely occur Thursday night with well aligned westerly flow down the long axis of the lake, interacting cooperatively with orographic enhancement on the Tug Hill Plateau. Snowfall rates may reach 2+ inches per hour and this one 12 hour period could produce well over a foot of accumulation for the Tug Hill. On Friday boundary layer flow will begin to veer slightly, and the position of the upstream mid level trough may also force lake effect snow to move a little farther south, and re-orient itself with less potential for one single, strong band, and more potential for a broad area of lake enhanced snow east and southeast of the lake. Boundary layer flow will continue to slowly veer more northwest Friday night and Saturday, spreading lake enhanced snow to much of the area southeast of the lake. Snowfall rates will decrease during this time frame, but the footprint of the snow will spread out over a much wider area. The snow will continue through Saturday morning before decreasing in areal coverage and intensity Saturday afternoon and evening as the deeper moisture pulls away. As far as amounts go, storm totals are likely to reach 2-3 feet on the Tug Hill with locally higher amounts possible if the band of heaviest snow stalls in one location long enough. 6-10 inches of snow is possible for areas southeast of the lake from Orleans to western Oswego County, including the Rochester area. Much of this will fall later Friday through Saturday as boundary layer flow veers more northwesterly. Snowfall rates will not be as high in this phase of the event. Note, these totals do not include the synoptic snow that will precede the main lake effect event. Finally, it will be very windy during the first phase of this lake effect event Thursday and Thursday night. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be common at times, producing significant blowing and drifting snow. The strongest winds will be on the lake plains where the least amount of snow will fall. There may be a period with wind gusts up to or exceeding 45 mph Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will become somewhat lighter Friday through Saturday, although there will still be enough wind to produce at least some limited blowing and drifting snow in open areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 Might make a trip down to Holiday valley Friday or Sat. Should be some good conditions down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Might make a trip down to Holiday valley Friday or Sat. Should be some good conditions down there. Good thinking. I'm also planning a hike/snowshoe at Erie County Forest (East Concord) on Friday. Looks promising for one of those ideal fluff bomb hikes (or skis) down in the hills on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I usually just observe in this forum since I’m in Virginia. BUT I will be sitting through this one with you guys. Heading to Redfield tomorrow until Saturday. I’m southern Redfield on the south shore of the salmon reservoir. (Waterbury Rd) But I should be measuring things in feet!! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, swva said: I usually just observe in this forum since I’m in Virginia. BUT I will be sitting through this one with you guys. Heading to Redfield tomorrow until Saturday. I’m southern Redfield on the south shore of the salmon reservoir. (Waterbury Rd) But I should be measuring things in feet!! Awesome timing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I will say...even for those outside of the main snowbelts, most areas will have fresh snow on the ground by the end of the week. It looks like a rare case for this winter where we will have cold AND moisture very much available for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 You guys better not bring me bad luck Destroyed on the Nam, good 2-3 feet and still going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: You guys better not bring me bad luck Destroyed on the Nam, good 2-3 feet and still going.. The 18Z really looks meh for down here. Amazing how much the models change with each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Sorry I wasn’t clear. Perfect timing because I’m chasing. Trip wasn’t planned but I have a connection to a cabin anytime I want to come up. Was there at Christmas and there was NO SNOW!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, swva said: Sorry I wasn’t clear. Perfect timing because I’m chasing. Trip wasn’t planned but I have a connection to a cabin anytime I want to come up. Was there at Christmas and there was NO SNOW!! I was just down in your neck of the woods this past weekend. Surprised at how many things were already budding down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The 18Z really looks meh for down here. Amazing how much the models change with each run. This is pretty much a non event by us. A few inches maybe, at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: You guys better not bring me bad luck Destroyed on the Nam, good 2-3 feet and still going.. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I was just down in your neck of the woods this past weekend. Surprised at how many things were already budding down there! Yeah it’s been a super warm winter for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 18z NAM pretty meh for synoptic portion over WNY. Curious to see if GFS collapses it’s blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This is pretty much a non event by us. A few inches maybe, at some point. I will go with your experience and wisdom on this. Yet another snoozer in the Syracuse area? I am again surprised by how much more snow we still have on the ground here though compared to the city and areas closer to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, swva said: Where are you located? Probably about 13-14 miles WNW of where you will be, just south of Richland/Orwell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I will go with your experience and wisdom on this. Yet another snoozer in the Syracuse area? I am again surprised by how much more snow we still have on the ground here though compared to the city and areas closer to it though. Yeah, apart from model wobbles this looks like 3 or 4" of snow over a few days. My snow depth is still 6-7" after a ferocious couple of melting days. The LES is a red herring here as once it starts up on the Tug it's hard to dislodge it. Maybe a few hours of snow as it pushes south, falls of the lake and dies. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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