rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 GFS actually ticked NW on LP track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 976 MB NE of Rochester! This would be a blizzard for all of WNY If only there was a WSW...then it would be real... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 850’s good for only extreme WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Can we get excited in buffalo yet? Or is this the equivalent to the Bills Houston game at halftime... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 GFS is such a bad model. IDK where where its getting these crazy totals. I would cut that by half to one third at least... That would be low ratio isothermal wet snow of Rochester at best that run.... I would go with a blend of the NAM and Canadian on this one... and not get any synoptic hopes up... LE is where you will score. I hope you all get feet on snow just cannot be oblivious to this track and set up. Synoptically not favorable for many in WNY and even my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Our big storm a couple weeks ago ended up considerably further east than programmed, including the Binghamton area as a last minute surprise. With the constant progressive nature of the track this year, I wonder if this might end up a hundred miles east too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: GFS is such a bad model. IDK where where its getting these crazy totals. I would cut that by half to one third at least... That would be low ratio isothermal wet snow of Rochester at best that run.... I would go with a blend of the NAM and Canadian on this one... and not get any synoptic hopes up... LE is where you will score. I hope you all get feet on snow just cannot be oblivious to this track and set up. Synoptically not favorable for many in WNY and even my area... Synoptically, it’s a decent set up for IAG at least. Euro and Ukie have shown it for a couple runs now. LE set up is very bad for Roc and BUF (city north) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Starting to get into rgem time for me, about 25 mm by 12z Friday as the band fluctuates between west and wsw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Synoptically, it’s a decent set up for IAG at least. Euro and Ukie have shown it for a couple runs now. LE set up is very bad for Roc and BUF (city north) please look at the CMC because it validates my concerns... warm and rainy for roc. lets not all hug the GFS all at once lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 CMC is 991 same time GFS is 976. Clearly GFS is way to amped in this set up. also GFS never develops the secondary which almost every model is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: GFS is such a bad model. IDK where where its getting these crazy totals. I would cut that by half to one third at least... That would be low ratio isothermal wet snow of Rochester at best that run.... I would go with a blend of the NAM and Canadian on this one... and not get any synoptic hopes up... LE is where you will score. I hope you all get feet on snow just cannot be oblivious to this track and set up. Synoptically not favorable for many in WNY and even my area... The NAM and Canadian are worst on verification scores. It goes Euro, UK, GFS. So the GFS is not a bad model. However its highly unlikely the latest run comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The NAM and Canadian are worst on verification scores. It goes Euro, UK, GFS. So the GFS is not a bad model. However its highly unlikely the latest run comes to fruition. Show me these verification scores? The GFS has been playing catch up all year. We were talking about this since November that's why I am so confused. NAM has been very accurate in its short to mid range last time I checked Verfication scores. would love to see them for myself and clear up the confusion. I apologize in advance and thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Roc is most likely mix. I’m talking IAG and BUF (maybe). Definitely a lot of moving parts. GFS overdone but it gives a good idea if everything comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Canadian moves primary 100 miles east between 0z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Show me these verification scores? The GFS has been playing catch up all year. We were talking about this since November that's why I am so confused. NAM has been very accurate in its short to mid range last time I checked Verfication scores. would love to see them for myself and clear up the confusion. I apologize in advance and thank you Go look for yourself, I'm at work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Ukmet is a crusher for almost all of Oswego county, west-wnw flow unlike the Canadian which is west-wsw.. At 10-1 ukmet Kuchera Ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 What an exciting time to be a WNY'er! This storm has a lot of tricks up its sleeve. I'm definitely not sold on the GFS as it seems amped to moon like it has been all year ( I seriously wonder if there is a bug in the code somewhere). That said, almost all models have continually trended in a favorable direction for us for many days. I've put in for a day off on Friday to hit up Holiday Valley, hoping that pays dividends! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 GFS bugged netcode dood, nothing it could do. If GFS is right, it was on this for over a week. And soundly defeated NWS mets. I'm rooting hard for it to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 GFS ENS much more realistic, all of these are WSW for WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Kinda nice to be sitting this one out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 GFS ensembles have had this for 3 days. Gonna be fun to see how it plays out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Here is the mean up until Thursday afternoon when the synoptic should be over..Gefs have terrible resolution and can't be trusted with enhancement/LES, obviously lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS ENS much more realistic, all of these are WSW for WNY. Wow there's not one run with less than a 1/2 foot for KBUF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 26 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Kinda nice to be sitting this one out. Time for me to go back to Florida? P.S. to all the GEFS maps being posted...Are we really going to believe the GEFS??? They have showed that exact same snowfall setup sooooooooo many times this winter...and failed. I would love to believe them, as they look good for us in Central NY, but I am highly skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 Euro is identical to GFS, (a few MB weaker, but pretty much exact track. I have yet to see those colored purples in a synoptic storm across WNY on pivotal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Through the synoptic portion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 Tops out at 980 MB before weakening. A little weaker than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 So the Low goes due north through the Finger Lakes? Hopefully it makes a farther SE run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 What a beauty 1.5" + LE all enhancement/lake effect and euro doesn't usually show lake effect well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Cutoff right through Monroe County. Gonna be a close call. I bet NWS hoists Watches one county west.... The East ticks have stopped. For now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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