Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 41 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs wants to get everyone involved fwiw Between synoptic, Enhancement and lake effect. Yeah but...GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Ukmet is a pretty nice synoptic hit for WNY and a huge lake effect hit east of Ontario..Has almost no synoptic snow for CNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Solid hit on the European for wny.. Sold with the lake effect as well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Well over a foot for BUF on the 06z GFS with Kuchie and still over a foot with 10:1. Obviously overdone but am not confident in at least advisory criteria for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 51 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Well over a foot for BUF on the 06z GFS with Kuching and still over a foot with 10:1. Obviously overdone but am not confident in at least advisory criteria for us. Seems like lots if things changed last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 KBUF wants nothing to do with any accumulating snows Wednesday night and Thursday keeping it all rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Even the local scrubs are showing 6"+ for Wednesday night and Thursday...KBUF...asleep at the wheel...again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 9 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Agree, but even dividing those numbers by 5 (which is similar to what you're eluding to) still yields a statistically significant "snowstorm" for Toronto. I'm happy to see them at least have a shot. Toronto is an unbelievably snowless location for its latitude and proximity to the great lakes (which obviously don't help them). Look at these pitiful numbers... If they even got 7 inches it would be their largest single day snowfall in over a decade, AMAZING Most snow to fall in one day during recent years in Toronto Inches Date 3.5 November 15, 2018 6.1 February 12, 2017 5.4 December 11, 2016 4.1 February 21, 2015 6.9 December 11, 2014 4.1 December 14, 2013 5.0 February 02, 2012 2.5 February 26, 2011 5.3 January 28, 2010 What about February 7, 2013. I could have sworn we saw over a foot with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Winter storm watch issued.. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of 2 feet possible. Snowfall rates may reach over 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow amounts are expected to focus across the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I think this is going to be "your" event Wolfie…..finally!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Even the local scrubs are showing 6"+ for Wednesday night and Thursday...KBUF...asleep at the wheel...again... Yeah, after quickly checking the overnight runs was expecting some type of headline for NIag Frontier from BUF, but nada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 It’s hard to get too excited about this event here. Too far East for synoptic snow and too far south for lake effect. Guess I’ll get my popcorn and beer and be a spectator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: What about February 7, 2013. I could have sworn we saw over a foot with that storm. Maybe didn't make the list as the snowfall occurred overnight and was accounted for over 2 calendar days? That's why a lot of why records "miss" some actual storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 Crazy last minute model runs. Winter storm warning for all of wny based on model consensus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Crazy last minute model runs. Winter storm warning for all of wny based on model consensus. Yeah except the folks with their hands on the button are unimpressed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Latest SREF plumes for KSYR. Looks like a couple inches with the CFROPA and a few inches of LES. Total of 5-6" based on the mean. Still continues to trend up each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 00Z Euro looks good for all of WNY and the 50 or 60 residents of the of the Tug area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 NAM fishes it out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Whew, I am SO glad I did not move to Geneva, Mt. Morris, Canandaigua, or Penn Yan. Talk about a consistent screw zone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 31 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: It’s hard to get too excited about this event here. Too far East for synoptic snow and too far south for lake effect. Guess I’ll get my popcorn and beer and be a spectator. You will get in on the action as well bro, flow will turn WNW later Friday into Saturday. Global models look pretty good out that way as well fwiw.. Obviously not as much as the tug but that's to be expected lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Here was the 6z global and regional Canadian.. You can see some differences in where the enhancement starts off, global more Westerly while regional more WSW..Nam has been going back and forth between Westerly and wsw.. Meanwhile the European models have very little WSW and keep it mostly west-wnw, crushing central Oswego county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3k NAM finally on board. Looks like route 390 might be the dividing line (unusual). West of it could do quite well. Strong dynamics with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 It’s gonna be close for Rochester. Ultimately, I gotta believe the models, best thermals just N and W. It’s a heartbreak and I’m gonna be hoping on ‘dynamic cooling’ whatever that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: It’s gonna be close for Rochester. Ultimately, I gotta believe the models, best thermals just N and W. It’s a heartbreak and I’m gonna be hoping on ‘dynamic cooling’ whatever that is. This is that critical frame! It’s a race between the cold air and precip. There’s likely gonna be a disappointed back side area! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 GFS shows rapidly strengthening system, some very heavy snow in that 20-30 mile wide band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 976 MB NE of Rochester! This would be a blizzard for all of WNY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Wow lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 It’s a monster for BUF and IAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Wow lmao That was the strongest synoptic run since I've been following within 36 hours too. Insane! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Well, BUF is gonna HAVE to take notice. Watches go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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