rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Heavy snow in Niagara region just across the border. Tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: Hard to get too excited with this event. Euro has been a consistent Debbie Downer for most of CNY for days. The LES looks like it will be centered just north of Matt and I so expectations of no more than a sloppy couple of inches here with the Sou'Easter.... You can already see them trending that way in their forecasts being issued. Now, we are at, "Chances for snow showers" instead of the many days of "Snow showers likely" that they had for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 It's going to be close wether we can flip over to a wet paste job.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You can already see them trending that way in their forecasts being issued. Now, we are at, "Chances for snow showers" instead of the many days of "Snow showers likely" that they had for us. Not gonna lie, this near 50 degree temps the past two days feel good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Kbgm Low pressure is forecast to track E-NE across the Ohio Valley Wednesday and eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a secondary low will develop to the south of the primary low near the lee of central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. Models continue to differ in handling the interaction between both systems Wednesday night and Thursday (e.g., How quickly and to what extent does the primary low weaken and transfer its energy to the secondary low? Do they remain two separate low centers or merge together?) but the spread continues to decrease as we get closer to the event. Wednesday...Light rain (possibly mixing in with snow across the southern Tug Hill) along a warm front will lift northward during the morning Wednesday. There is a potential lull in precipitation across most of the area underneath the dry slot during the day. Wednesday night...The forecast has trended slightly slower with the arrival of the main slug of precipitation along the cold front, which is now expected to overspread the area from the southwest Wednesday evening. QPF amounts are between one-half and one inch for this event. Early Thursday...Westerly flow in wake of the cold front will yield strong cold-air advection late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There are some differences in the models to note regarding how quickly the cold air arrives relative to how quickly the precipitation shuts off, which contributes to the uncertainty in the snow potential on the backside of the system. The general consensus is for a narrow window (only a few hours) of accumulating snowfall at the tail end of the event after 06Z and before 15Z. The current forecast calls for around an inch across the higher terrain of CNY and 2-4 inches for the northern Oneida County. A reasonable high-end snow scenario (where the arrival of the colder air is quicker than currently depicted in our forecast, but the precip is slower to exit owing to a deeper secondary low tracking just to our south/east and a more negatively-tilted upper trough) is still on the table. This is represented by the latest 90th percentile snowfall guidance, which shows an advisory-level snowfall for the Twin Tiers/Finger Lakes/Catskills and near warning-level accumulation for the southern Tug Hill. Thursday afternoon...Temperatures will struggle to rise much throughout the day on Thursday (steady in the lower to mid 30s) as cold- air advection offsets the daytime heating. A brisk west wind gusting 25-35 mph will yield wind chills in the teens and 20s, serving as a reminder that winter is not over. Additional lake- effect/upslope snow showers are expected during the day but accumulations should be minimal with convection generally disorganized/cellular. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Cyclonic westerly and eventually northwesterly flow around the backside of the cutoff low will keep us in a cold and cloudy pattern with lake-effect snow showers persisting through at least Saturday, if not part of the day on Sunday. We will have to monitor the potential for an organized LES band to develop downwind of Lake Ontario Thursday night-Friday morning. However, with a 260-270 degree flow in the boundary layer, this band may only brush the northern fringes of Oneida County (or remain north entirely) during its peak. A 260-270 degree flow would also place the Twin Tiers in a favorable area for lake-effect snow showers downwind of Lake Erie on Friday. Updated PoPs accordingly to account to highlight these two areas. Snow showers off Lake Ontario will eventually expand/shift southward later Friday and Saturday once the flow veers out of the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Kbuf A very complex synoptic evolution will then unfold Wednesday night and Thursday. The sharp Ohio Valley trough will deepen further, and take on a negative tilt as it phases with additional shortwave energy diving into the western portion of the trough. The surface low will move northeast across Lake Erie Wednesday night, moving north of Lake Ontario by Thursday. The associated cold front will cross our region slowly from west to east Wednesday night, with most of the operational guidance suggesting one or more baroclinic waves running northward along the advancing front. The presence of these waves greatly complicates the forecast, as the waves may force the front to take on more anabatic characteristics with steadier, heavier precipitation developing on the cold side of the frontal zone. Expect a period of widespread precipitation Wednesday night with the passage of this system, generally advancing from west to east across the eastern Great Lakes. Forcing is very strong, and the system will capture an impressive plume of deep moisture with Gulf of Mexico origins. The quality of moisture and dynamics coming together will produce a general 0.50"-0.75" of liquid equivalent across the region Wednesday night. Precipitation type will generally be rain ahead of the front, then transition quickly to wet snow behind the frontal zone from west to east overnight. There may be a period of accumulating wet snow in some areas behind the front, although amounts will be highly dependent on the fine details of how the aforementioned frontal waves develop. Temperatures never get as warm east of Lake Ontario, and its possible some, or even most of the precipitation may fall as wet snow across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks, even on the warm side of the frontal zone. The potential for accumulating synoptic snow Wednesday night will need to be watched closely in future model runs, given the complexity and strongly forced nature of the system. Cold air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday as the surface low deepens further across the Ottawa Valley. General wrap around snow showers will continue as the deep, closing off mid level trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Lake effect/lake enhanced snow will also develop east of the lakes. Given the proximity of the upper level low, there may be some shear initially that inhibits band organization. Even so, lake enhanced and orographically enhanced snow will likely produce moderate accumulations across the higher terrain east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. It will also be quite windy Thursday, with wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range common across the region. Advisory level gusts in excess of 45 mph are a possibility. The wind will also produce significant blowing snow where accumulating snow is falling east of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 One more click south and we are in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 When was the last time you saw Toronto near the sweet spot of a storm. Granted this is a clown map but they are close to getting a very legit amount of snow. As a side, note, why on earth does tropical tidbits not show accumulated snow over the great lakes (or any major body of water)? I understand that the snow won't actually accumulate there but its not as if the snow won't fall there. It's downright idiotic and makes it harder to read these maps correctly especially for those of us that are close to the lake shores. They really should fix that. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Gfs was actually pretty good for kbuf, using kuchera about 10" by 12z Friday.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Wpc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: When was the last time you saw Toronto near the sweet spot of a storm. Granted this is a clown map but they are close to getting a very legit amount of snow. As a side, note, why on earth does tropical tidbits not show accumulated snow over the great lakes (or any major body of water)? I understand that the snow won't actually accumulate there but its not as if the snow won't fall there. It's downright idiotic and makes it harder to read these maps correctly especially for those of us that are close to the lake shores. They really should fix that. Between that and including sleet/ice as snow makes TT almost unusable. And it's probably done on purpose lol Keeps the weenies around and gives out false hope like JB and WB..If pivotal can take out mix Precipitation as snow so can they lol The WB kuchera is way higher than Pivotal, probably programed by jb himself lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: When was the last time you saw Toronto near the sweet spot of a storm. Granted this is a clown map but they are close to getting a very legit amount of snow. As a side, note, why on earth does tropical tidbits not show accumulated snow over the great lakes (or any major body of water)? I understand that the snow won't actually accumulate there but its not as if the snow won't fall there. It's downright idiotic and makes it harder to read these maps correctly especially for those of us that are close to the lake shores. They really should fix that. Wow!! My first call for Toronto is 4". I'm always skeptical of Toronto getting big storms until it's right on top of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs was actually pretty good for kbuf, using kuchera about 10" by 12z Friday.. Nah... GFS overdoing the lake enhanced wrap around for BUF like it has done for every one of the events this year. 6” from hour 66-72, not happening. Worst storm track possible for us... Synoptic stays west and north... Lake effect sets up well south. Bet I’ll still be looking at grass by 12z Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 24 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nah... GFS overdoing the lake enhanced wrap around for BUF like it has done for every one of the events this year. 6” from hour 66-72, not happening. Worst storm track possible for us... Synoptic stays west and north... Lake effect sets up well south. Bet I’ll still be looking at grass by 12z Friday. Unless we can get another bump south (125 miles or so) I totally agree. Never good to be in the SE quadrant. Trend is our friend. The GFS has moved the primary 300 miles south in the last 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Unless we can get another bump south (125 miles or so) I totally agree. Never good to be in the SE quadrant. Trend is our friend. The GFS has moved the primary 300 miles south in the last 72 hours. Yeah, if we were in the bullseye right now it would be a lock to not verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 The primary will be swinging a CF through, once that happens it should be cold enough for snow even with the system to our NW..How much Precipitation is left is another story. The presence of these waves greatly complicates the forecast, as the waves may force the front to take on more anabatic characteristics with steadier, heavier precipitation developing on the cold side of the frontal zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: When was the last time you saw Toronto near the sweet spot of a storm. Granted this is a clown map but they are close to getting a very legit amount of snow. As a side, note, why on earth does tropical tidbits not show accumulated snow over the great lakes (or any major body of water)? I understand that the snow won't actually accumulate there but its not as if the snow won't fall there. It's downright idiotic and makes it harder to read these maps correctly especially for those of us that are close to the lake shores. They really should fix that. Not happening. Cut that in half and it still seems unbelievable. I'm going with 4-6" of wet snow for now. We're riding the thin line at the surface coupled with warm ground temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Not happening. Cut that in half and it still seems unbelievable. I'm going with 4-6" of wet snow for now. We're riding the thin line at the surface coupled with warm ground temperatures. Agree, but even dividing those numbers by 5 (which is similar to what you're eluding to) still yields a statistically significant "snowstorm" for Toronto. I'm happy to see them at least have a shot. Toronto is an unbelievably snowless location for its latitude and proximity to the great lakes (which obviously don't help them). Look at these pitiful numbers... If they even got 7 inches it would be their largest single day snowfall in over a decade, AMAZING Most snow to fall in one day during recent years in Toronto Inches Date 3.5 November 15, 2018 6.1 February 12, 2017 5.4 December 11, 2016 4.1 February 21, 2015 6.9 December 11, 2014 4.1 December 14, 2013 5.0 February 02, 2012 2.5 February 26, 2011 5.3 January 28, 2010 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Agree, but even dividing those numbers by 5 (which is similar to what you're eluding to) still yields a statistically significant "snowstorm" for Toronto. I'm happy to see them at least have a shot. Toronto is an unbelievably snowless location for its latitude and proximity to the great lakes (which obviously don't help them). Look at these pitiful numbers... If they even got 7 inches it would be their largest single day snowfall in over a decade, AMAZING Most snow to fall in one day during recent years in Toronto Inches Date 3.5 November 15, 2018 6.1 February 12, 2017 5.4 December 11, 2016 4.1 February 21, 2015 6.9 December 11, 2014 4.1 December 14, 2013 5.0 February 02, 2012 2.5 February 26, 2011 5.3 January 28, 2010 It's rare to see an East wind off the Lake. Only really happens when a storm passes just south of us and upper air dynamics are favorable for LES bands to set-up. You guys are in the sweet spot off Lake Ontario. I go to Buffalo occasionally in the Winter so it's refreshing to see some nice drifts after a good lake effect snow event. Actually we got 10.4" in one day last winter thanks to an over-performing clipper. Two day total was 13". But you can see how bad we've had it recently lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, Snowstorms said: It's rare to see an East wind off the Lake. Only really happens when a storm passes just south of us and upper air dynamics are favorable for LES bands to set-up. You guys are in the sweet spot off Lake Ontario. I go to Buffalo occasionally in the Winter so it's refreshing to see some nice drifts after a good lake effect snow event. Actually we got 10.4" in one day last winter thanks to an over-performing clipper. Two day total was 13". Exactly, when I think of all the big cities around all the great lakes you can almost always find a way that they can get some sort of lake effect band to hit them at least once a generation to give them a substantial snowfall (18 inches plus). But poor Toronto is just in a horrible location. Even when that rare East West Band forms every few years it clobbers Hamilton to St Catharines and almost never clips Toronto. In most peoples eyes, these stats actually make Toronto a very attractive Northern City. It's just us weirdos that see it as a detriment. haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I’m just setting myself up but some really solid hits on SREF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Toronto’s tiny annual snowfall has always astounded me. They get about half or less from everyone else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Nam is just silly with 1-2 feet east of Ontario by Friday morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I played around with SREF plumes for KSYR using latest runs...took out the 2 high outliers. Looks like 5" mean FWIW. Trend has been getting better each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 45 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Exactly, when I think of all the big cities around all the great lakes you can almost always find a way that they can get some sort of lake effect band to hit them at least once a generation to give them a substantial snowfall (18 inches plus). But poor Toronto is just in a horrible location. Even when that rare East West Band forms every few years it clobbers Hamilton to St Catharines and almost never clips Toronto. In most peoples eyes, these stats actually make Toronto a very attractive Northern City. It's just us weirdos that see it as a detriment. haha We had a rare band off Georgian Bay rip through the city a few years ago. Dropped 3" in an hour. The city was at a standstill haha. Our geographic location has its benefits but a lot of drawbacks too lol. Either way, it's nice to have welcoming neighbours across the border. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 The systems are pretty much working together..3k has over 6" at 10-1 and 4"-5" kuchera fwiw . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Big changes on GFS. Yeah baby. Getting super interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Heavy snow knocking on Buffalos door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Hour 54 has BUF at 29. The 18z had it at 42 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Gfs wants to get everyone involved fwiw Between synoptic, Enhancement and lake effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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