rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Navy would be a decent snowstorm for all. Of course, it’s the Navy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just miss out on some decent synoptic snow on the European.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Same for the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Hit 50° today lol All windows now open.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 You got ensemble snowfalls? Curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 The bees enjoyed the little reprieve today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Navy would be a decent snowstorm for all. Of course, it’s the Navy Anchors Aweigh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 LR NAM doing what the other guidance tried to .. granted its the NAM at 84 hours but its plausible if the secondary develops quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Storm reminds me of the one in late January. We had a beautiful synoptic snow burst that Saturday afternoon in Skaneateles when the call was all rain. Elevation may throw some surprises out with this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Later Wednesday and Wednesday night the deepening and elongating surface low will bodily lift northeastward across our region...with an attendant shot of moderate to possibly heavy rain out ahead of it then giving way to lighter wraparound snows as progressively colder air wraps into our region following its passage. Later in the night the airmass looks to grow cold enough to support the development of some lake enhanced or lake effect snow east or east-northeast of Lake Erie...with the combination of this and the lighter synoptic snows likely producing some minor accumulations by daybreak. Meanwhile... the developing cold advection regime will help to send temperatures back down into the mid to upper 20s across the far west...and to the lower 30s across the Finger Lakes and North Country. On Thursday the surface low will continue to make its way northeastward across Quebec Province...while maintaining a deep cyclonic flow of much colder air across our region that will feature 850 mb temps falling into the negative mid teens. Within this environment...lingering wraparound moisture and energy attendant to the main upper level trough will promote at least a likelihood of some light snow pretty much everywhere... while increasing lake effect/lake enhancement will also help to promote better organized (and potentially significant) lake snows downwind of the lakes. The above said...this far out in advance the available guidance unsurprisingly continues to suggest a fair amount of uncertainty in wind direction (and resultant lake band placement)...with the degree of band organization that we might see also uncertain given the likelihood of at least some disruption from strengthening late February diurnal influences...which would tend to favor any lake bands becoming more cellular and less organized at least for a time. With the above in mind... have just continued to highlight the potential for headline-worthy lake snows within the HWO for now. Otherwise temperatures will continue to slowly fall given the ongoing cold air advection...with readings dropping off into the 20s areawide by late in the day. Coupled with brisk west winds...this will result in wind chills dipping into the teens. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...Potentially significant lake effect snows late in the week... By Thursday night, temperatures aloft will be plenty cold enough to support lake effect snow with 850mb temperatures around -17C. There also will be ample moisture in place with a mid-level low forecast to slowly pass to our north before moving into southern Quebec through Friday. Expect the steadiest lake snows to occur in the Thursday night and Friday timeframe. The challenge is wind direction, and this is where subtle model differences will lead to big differences in the timing and location of snow. In general terms, the best chance for lake effect snow will be in the snow belts ENE of the lakes Thursday night. On Friday, a potential Lake Huron connection and a more westerly flow suggests the heaviest snows may be across the Tug Hill and areas east of Lake Ontario. There is potential for more than a foot of snow at some locations, but it may take several more model runs before there is ample confidence in timing and location for headlines to be issued. Will continue to discuss this potential in the HWO. There will be less synoptic moisture as the mid level low moves slowly eastward Friday night, but model guidance suggests a secondary shortwave will pivot around the back of this either Friday night or Saturday. This will provide a temporary moisture infusion. Also, with a weaker synoptic flow there is more uncertainty in wind direction, with a consensus suggesting a generally northwest flow during the period. This would bring the steadiest snows southeast of the lakes. This shortwave and associated moisture will exit to the east Sunday, with lake snows diminishing. With 850mb temperatures near -20c there still is a risk of tea-kettle type snows if a convergent band develops Saturday night. Depending the exact wind direction and timing of the second shortwave, it is possible that significant lake effect snows will continue through Saturday night, but these are likely to be more localized. One thing to note is that the higher late February sun angle could disrupt banding during the daytime hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Anything from the synoptic system would be a bonus east of Ontario as the lake effect is the real story..GFS has very little from the synoptic system but plenty of lake effect.. Only 3-4 more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Lots of SYR hits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 18z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 18z gefs Yeah. Had a feeling this could get interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Starting to get more interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Weird that the primary hangs on and yet heavy snow? I don’t buy the exact depiction but I think we are looking at something intriguing to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 It's an elongated low, so not sure what to expect lol Later Wednesday and Wednesday night the deepening and elongating surface low will bodily lift northeastward across our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Weird that the primary hangs on and yet heavy snow? I don’t buy the exact depiction but I think we are looking at something intriguing to be sure I was thinking the same thing. Looks like it may stall out and wrap cold air in from the southwest...which is definitely a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Definitely goes negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Definitely goes negative NAM is best case scenario with that H5. Nice back door CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Icon and GFS looking lame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Euro not much in the synoptic department, little down towards SW NY, main wind flow is out of the WSW with some variations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just in case the NAM is right which it isn't lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Speaking of the NAM, this model should be banished lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Already 48° as of 930 am lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Nam still sticking to its guns lol 6"-12" before lake effect even starts haha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam still sticking to its guns lol 6"-12" before lake effect even starts haha.. I hate myself for doing this but the 00z Euro was almost a hit for WNY...kinda waiting for the 12z run to see if a trend is starting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 Well my winter fix has been satisfied. Definitely my favorite trip ever to the Adirondacks. 30-50" of snow on our hikes up to the peaks. Winds at the top of the one peak had to be over 80 mph. By far the strongest winds I have ever experienced in my life, nothing comes even close. We did a sunrise hike the first day. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Gfs is trying lol Not as much Precipitation in the cold sector like the Nam, which is no surprise lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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