wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 First bump north by the NWS . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Good band in Irondequoit. P&C took a dive as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: First bump north by the NWS . Also narrowed precip field a bit. Which is appropriate down here as LES is usually a narrow strip of measurable snow by the time its over. I'd put almost the whole band into So. Oswego cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I don’t think anyone NC is seeing a foot but it’s been fun to watch the Euro cave to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 22 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Also narrowed precip field a bit. Which is appropriate down here as LES is usually a narrow strip of measurable snow by the time its over. I'd put almost the whole band into So. Oswego cty. SUNY Oswego doesn’t get it often and they love it! I went to school there expecting huge snowfalls. Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: SUNY Oswego doesn’t get it often and they love it! I went to school there expecting huge snowfalls. Not so much. We got a few big ones in my 4 years there. First (and only) time I ever experienced 8"/hr rates with a massive band in Jan '96. 1' in 1.5hrs. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Yeah Oswego "officially" owns the state record for 15 min, 30 min, 1hr and 3 hour Snowfall..They managed to keep a 9" an hour rate for 3 hours!! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah Oswego "officially" owns the state record for 15 min, 30 min, 1hr and 3 hour Snowfall..They managed to keep a 9" an hour rate for 3 hours!! Lol Was that in 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I'm looking for the link now but I'm thinking the 70s or 50s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: I'm looking for the link now but I'm thinking the 70s or 50s lol Oh, was thinking it was during their 100" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, vortmax said: Oh, was thinking it was during their 100" event. Some of this could be outdated.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 51 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Some of this could be outdated.. Yeah doesn't include Nov 2014 in there which rivals quite a few of those 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 As far as accumulations go, for tonight through Thursday expect accumulations of 6-10 inches. The lower end of that range is more likely with greater band movement, while the higher end is possible with less band movement and more residence time in any one location. The greatest snow amounts are expected across southern Oswego, northern Cayuga, and northeast Wayne counties, along a line from Wolcott to Martville to Central Square. Farther west, expect a few inches of accumulation along and north of Route 104 in Orleans and Monroe counties, with up to 4-5 inches locally near and east of Irondequoit Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Some of this could be outdated.. Well I can Say that and 2007, I received 40 inches in 8 hours in Parish... during which time I had several hours of 8 inches per hour.... And near the end of that time frame the snow was settling at about 1.5 inces per hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I was only at SUNY Oswego for 2 winters, 91/92 and 92/93. Both were a little disappointing. I quickly learned that the campus misses a lot of the heavy ones because the are right in the water. I’ve said it before but I was always amazed at how much more Hannibal had- just a few miles away. We did have one crazy band that dumped two feet inside of several hours. Which was fun!!! Fluffiest snow ever. My Chevy Celebrity could drive through it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I was only at SUNY Oswego for 2 winters, 91/92 and 92/93. Both were a little disappointing. I quickly learned that the campus misses a lot of the heavy ones because the are right in the water. I’ve said it before but I was always amazed at how much more Hannibal had- just a few miles away. We did have one crazy band that dumped two feet inside of several hours. Which was fun!!! Fluffiest snow ever. My Chevy Celebrity could drive through it. Funny to think we were there at the same time...92/93 was my freshman year. I remember one LE storm that winter where we had lightning/thunder and one of the NYC residents on my floor came running to my room thinking the sky was falling - never experienced that before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Potential still there day 8.. Another Miller B type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Meso-low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 We're not gonna see anywhere near 12" or anywhere near 6", it'll be somewhere right in between somewhere and itll be North of me, that's a guarantee. I'm thinking Palermo, Fulton and Scriba East and I'll get missed by a few miles to my North! I've seen it play out too many times and it all has to do with Coastal fictional convergence with the concavity which encompasses Sodus Bay to north of Oswego! Wind hits there and doesn't know whether to go N-S-E-W, lol!!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 12z GFS was really ugly. About 4 chances for rain with one strange shot at some snow with a hybrid Miller B system. Getting ready to toss in the towel on this Winter. Somehow I actually salvaged some decent days on the slopes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Meso-low? NahSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Snowing nicely at the route 31, I90 intersection and getting heavier as I head West so.. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah doesn't include Nov 2014 in there which rivals quite a few of those Really wish we would have had some more spotter recording during that storm in terms of rates and more short term snowfall amounts like the chart. Still mad I wrote that first night off as the band looked to be sinking south and went to bed only to wake up to over 36” in a 6-7 hour period. Considering the amount of compaction under that much snowfall rates had to peak over 8”/hr. Only real record type report I remember seeing was the 65” in 24 hours in South Cheektowaga which I’m not even sure was considered official but would say it coincided with what I was able to estimate at my location a few miles south west of there. Debated trying to climb my way to my board in the backyard but when I dropped a yardstick into the middle of the driveway and it just disappeared I knew any sort of offical measuring wasn’t going to happen so instead just started shoveling... and shoveling... and shoveling some more. Ahh memory lane... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 710.5" in 3 months. To average 7.75" every day for 3 months is amazing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Really wish we would have had some more spotter recording during that storm in terms of rates and more short term snowfall amounts like the chart. Still mad I wrote that first night off as the band looked to be sinking south and went to bed only to wake up to over 36” in a 6-7 hour period. Considering the amount of compaction under that much snowfall rates had to peak over 8”/hr. Only real record type report I remember seeing was the 65” in 24 hours in South Cheektowaga which I’m not even sure was considered official but would say it coincided with what I was able to estimate at my location a few miles south west of there. Debated trying to climb my way to my board in the backyard but when I dropped a yardstick into the middle of the driveway and it just disappeared I knew any sort of offical measuring wasn’t going to happen so instead just started shoveling... and shoveling... and shoveling some more. Ahh memory lane... A few places recorded 65" in 24 hours during that (South Cheektowaga/Lancaster) and rates of 7-8" per at some points. I measured over 88" of snow between both storms here, max snow depth was 52", first storm my depth was 36". Received 50" total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Wayne Cty sees the lion share of tonight's snow and perhaps a very small part of Monroe but that's questionable at best!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour at times from late this evening through daybreak on Thursday. WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. The greatest snow amounts are expected to focus across northern Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties. WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 New map.. Went from nada to the 4"-6" line just to my south, I'll take it lol If it verified of course.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 36 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour at times from late this evening through daybreak on Thursday. WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. The greatest snow amounts are expected to focus across northern Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties. WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Enjoy the snow up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 A favorable setup continues to unfold for heavy lake effect snow over a portion of central NY tonight and Thursday. A broad upper level trough over eastern Canada, much of the Great Lakes and Northeast US will become re-enforced by a strong push of Arctic air from the north which will be the primary mechanism for lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario. Model guidance continues to hint at 850mb temps around -15 to -18 deg C...which is very favorable given that Lake Ontario water temperature is roughly +4 deg C. The cold air advecting in will be capable of generating 300-500 J/kg of lake induced CAPE, with steep lapse rates within at least a 6-8k ft mixed layer. Channeled convergent nw flow over the lake will also aid in the lift which will support a singular convective lake effect snow band that will likely have upstream support from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay...and possibly even Lake Superior. An organized band is expected to develop along the srn shore of Lake Ontario around 7 pm or so...and then extend east, eventually into the nrn Finger Lakes and wrn Mohawk Valley by 10 pm. The threat for heavy snow and snowfall rates will likely be highest from around midnight through 7 am. At this time there is the potential for 1-2 inch per hour rates which will create potentially hazardous travel conditions. The area most likely to see 6 to 10 inches will be from Baldwinsville to North Syracuse to Verona. The lake snow band will drop to the south Thursday morning after sunrise and weaken in intensity as drier air starts to move in and the next upper short wave causes wind to veer more to the north. This band will most likely interact with some Finger Lakes and some enhancement may be seen down wind/south of the larger lakes during the late morning and into the afternoon. May see a quick 1-2 inches in the favored areas of the southern Finger Lakes and srn tier of NY during the day Thursday. The upper wave passes with very dry air and winds backing to the west, and eventually sw Thursday night which will shift any remaining/weakening lake bands back to the north. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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