BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2020 Author Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: God damnit Brings us to March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 March will flip. I think. I hope. I don’t care, like some of you, about longevity. As long as we can get a couple real storms I’ll be happy. No more front end messes or anafront riders- I want a real storm. Greenland blocking....Miller A....retrograde. the whole thing. Lol. What? Too much? I know...but March....come on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Some lake effect potential behind the CF.. Cold air advection will continue Tuesday night as another cold front crosses the region, reinforcing the cold air advection, this will cause 850H temperatures to drop to the -12C to -15C range by Wednesday morning. With the cold air advection and some synoptic moisture still available, a lake response will begin downwind of the lakes. As of right now, snow looks like it should be light through Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning before additional cold air advection and an approaching trough for later Wednesday. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be in the low to mid 20s, with a few locations east of Lake Ontario in the teens. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wednesday through Thursday a broad longwave trough will become established from the Great Lakes to New England. This will bring a few days of below normal temperatures to our region, with Thursday likely being the coldest day. General WNW flow aloft will combine with increased lake instability to produce a few rounds of lake effect snow showers east and southeast of the lakes. It remains too early for any details, although the pattern would suggest a better potential for accumulating lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario, with a lesser potential off Lake Erie. The best setup appears to be Wednesday night through Thursday morning, when an upstream connection to Lake Huron may tie into the Lake Ontario band. Lake effect snow showers will continue through Thursday night southeast of the lakes. High pressure and the onset of warm advection will then bring an end to the lake snows by Friday, with the start of a warming trend and period of dry weather that will likely continue into next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The conversation on here has been riveting lately... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Forecast here is for 2"-4" early tomorrow before the flip to agua.. Possible moderate accumulations south/SE of the lake wed night-Thursday.. Wednesday night the lake snows will again intensify, especially across Lake Ontario where an upstream connection will return. A WNW flow along the long axis of the Lake, increased surface convergence and lake induced equilibrium levels rising towards 7-8K feet will bring moderate lake snows along the shoreline of Monroe...and inland across Wayne, Cayuga and southern Oswego. There are still some uncertainties to the low level wind directions, but advisory level snows will be possible south and southeast of Lake Ontario. We will highlight this potential in the HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 36 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The conversation on here has been riveting lately... Not much to talk about lol After this cutter, HP will take control for a few days before another potential cutter lol Best chance for snow is via the lake behind each cutter/CF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not much to talk about lol After this cutter, HP will take control for a few days before another potential cutter lol Best chance for snow is via the lake behind each cutter/CF.. Cutter, cutter, buy rope, make noose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I expect the forum to be like this until next winter unless we get a big one in March lol On a positive note, I have yet to use a full pallet of pellets It's been real fellas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 GEPS bringing back the SE ridge in early March. It’s been a bummer. Gonna take a while for me to drift away but I won’t miss this winter. I have one more ski trip in early March to your (Wolfie) neck of the woods: Snow Ridge. I hope they can maintain some pack. Staying at Brantingham Lake. They keep snow up there pretty well. The worst part, by far, was the models constantly promising better stuff in the long range only to watch it fall apart. It was exhausting and heart breaking. We haven’t had 70” in Rochester. We MAYBE nickel and dimed our way to mid 50’s. The rest is BS. I give it a D+ (a mega storm in March could get us into C+ range). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: GEPS bringing back the SE ridge in early March. It’s been a bummer. Gonna take a while for me to drift away but I won’t miss this winter. I have one more ski trip in early March to your (Wolfie) neck of the woods: Snow Ridge. I hope they can maintain some pack. Staying at Brantingham Lake. They keep snow up there pretty well. The worst part, by far, was the models constantly promising better stuff in the long range only to watch it fall apart. It was exhausting and heart breaking. We haven’t had 70” in Rochester. We MAYBE nickel and dimed our way to mid 50’s. The rest is BS. I give it a D+ (a mega storm in March could get us into C+ range). This reminds me of'11/'12 when the models similarly did the same thing...2 weeks out looked good only to never come to fruition...models are great with warmth and rain though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The epitome of this year. Low pressure able to squeeze between 2 strong HP systems lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 Uh yeah... https://www.noaa.gov/news/january-2020-was-earth-s-hottest-january-on-record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just saw a post on reddit. Comments: I live in Stockholm and we only had snow for a few days in November In my 20 years it will be the first year without any snow here on balkans You really see the difference up here in Southern Finland. Typically Jan-Feb are the coldest months, but now we have barely had any snow. When it has snowed, it melts in a couple of days. I have never seen anything like this (40+) years. I'm within the arctic circle and it's only -4 degrees centigrade outside. What the blazes is going on Warmest Jan/Feb I remember in Italy. I was out in a t-shirt like 2 weeks ago, insane. My 91 year old greatgrandma says that this is first winter in Zagreb She can remember without any snow. That is something slightly alarming coming from someone who has seen so many different years and seasons. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just saw a post on reddit. Comments: I live in Stockholm and we only had snow for a few days in November In my 20 years it will be the first year without any snow here on balkans You really see the difference up here in Southern Finland. Typically Jan-Feb are the coldest months, but now we have barely had any snow. When it has snowed, it melts in a couple of days. I have never seen anything like this (40+) years. I'm within the arctic circle and it's only -4 degrees centigrade outside. What the blazes is going on Warmest Jan/Feb I remember in Italy. I was out in a t-shirt like 2 weeks ago, insane. My 91 year old greatgrandma says that this is first winter in Zagreb She can remember without any snow. That is something slightly alarming coming from someone who has seen so many different years and seasons. Definitely something to be concerned about. Have to see if it's a trend, though. Europe saw some pretty intense cold snaps over the past decade (2012, 2013, 2017). If a winter like this occurs three years in a row, then we know that something is really up. I find that nature is always searching for equilibrium, or balance. It will be interesting to see if, in 2021 or 2022, central and eastern Europe get an intense cold snap similar to 2006 to balance this out. Note how warm winters were in Alaska over the past decade only for them to see intense cold this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Already 5° below the forecast minimum.. Down to 14.5° under clear skies..HRRR is pretty much all frozen/snow tomorrow, just not much in the way of precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Could be a decent event for freak/max and company come Wednesday night-thursday.. Obviously location this far out is tricky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Definitely something to be concerned about. Have to see if it's a trend, though. Europe saw some pretty intense cold snaps over the past decade (2012, 2013, 2017). If a winter like this occurs three years in a row, then we know that something is really up. I find that nature is always searching for equilibrium, or balance. It will be interesting to see if, in 2021 or 2022, central and eastern Europe get an intense cold snap similar to 2006 to balance this out. Note how warm winters were in Alaska over the past decade only for them to see intense cold this year. Yeah I wasn't implying any global warming with that post even though its obviously occurring. Just goes to show what type of winter 2019-2020 has been. I can see it within a super nino, but in a neutral ENSO state its very odd to me. What caused the entire planet to be so warm this winter? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I wasn't implying any global warming with that post even though its obviously occurring. Just goes to show what type of winter 2019-2020 has been. I can see it within a super nino, but in a neutral ENSO state its very odd to me. What caused the entire planet to be so warm this winter? Don Paul had an interesting article this weekend regarding this. https://buffalonews.com/2020/02/14/valentines-day-deep-freeze-aside-its-been-a-very-odd-winter/?fbclid=IwAR3NNtz1zvAdrnEkfCUplovYX913QXoNY91XKt0I7yXzWfG1lbMJAOfqPqk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Don Paul had an interesting article this weekend regarding this. https://buffalonews.com/2020/02/14/valentines-day-deep-freeze-aside-its-been-a-very-odd-winter/?fbclid=IwAR3NNtz1zvAdrnEkfCUplovYX913QXoNY91XKt0I7yXzWfG1lbMJAOfqPqk That's a great article. So global warming would actually help weaken the PV and lead to more arctic intrusions in a normal winter? That's interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Could be a decent event for freak/max and company come Wednesday night-thursday.. Obviously location this far out is tricky. We probably won't see jack sh*t out of this but KBGM also mentioned the possibility in their AFD today. We've actually had decent snow depth the last few weeks in spite of the general malaise of this winter. Will be nice to get back to our steady diet of cutters. Upper midwest has to be well above average snowfall this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Of course you guys will finally get a decent lake effect snow event...I am in Florida!!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Of course you guys will finally get a decent lake effect snow event...I am in Florida!!!!! KBGM was spitballing 5-8" possibly. A bit surprised to see them even mention possible accumulation amounts for LES 2 days ahead of time. Something to keep an eye on i suppose. An area of 5-8 inches is possible from Baldwinsville through Syracuse over to Cazenovia. Snowfall rates may approach 1-2 inches per hour at times Wed night/Thur morning. Favorable lapse rates, lift and moisture within the DGZ along with limited shear and a sufficiently mixed boundary layer will all contribute to lake effect snow overnight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Take a ride up North Matt!! Lol This system could drop more snow in the SE than phi-nyc has seen all winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Yawn. Time for baseball. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 From the dept of FWIW the 00z Euro has no cutters over the next 10 days...in fact if things played out correctly we could see a few snow chances 7+ days from now...its all we've got at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: From the dept of FWIW the 00z Euro has no cutters over the next 10 days...in fact if things played out correctly we could see a few snow chances 7+ days from now...its all we've got at this point. Beats the hell out of having to talk about sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2" down as of 7 a.m. Seems this will overachieve a bit, at least w.r.t. the official forecast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 What is overachiever? lol. Yeah, over achiever in Rochester too. Looks like precip cutoff May precede changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I’ll bet the EURO is on to something. That’s a more like March pattern. March/ end of Feb isn’t for cutters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: What is overachiever? lol. Yeah, over achiever in Rochester too. Looks like precip cutoff May precede changeover. Certainly overachieving my expectations, which were based mainly on KBGM forecast of maybe an inch of wet snow then rain, from what little I looked at this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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