Leelee Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I wish I understood what KBUF NWS is excited about. This looks like your regular shortwave through the Ohio Valley to me. This must be how normal people feel listening to my weather babble. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Looks pretty good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Euro wasn’t bueno for next weeks system. Rainy mix meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks pretty good Actually looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Hard to figure the lack of a phase. Looking at just the radar it looks like a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 SREF for ROC is bumped upto 4. With a 2-6 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 39 minutes ago, Leelee said: I wish I understood what KBUF NWS is excited about. This looks like your regular shortwave through the Ohio Valley to me. This must be how normal people feel listening to my weather babble. Well they are still really only forecasting 3-6 of synoptic so I’m not sure what part you are interpreting as exciting. They are just doing a thorough job explaining the dynamics of the system. I hadn’t noticed until they mentioned it but that is an incredibly large and powerful upper level jet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks pretty good Yeah I agree...thats a lot more moisture than I thought...if that's a regular shortwave I'm just a regular guy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah I agree...thats a lot more moisture than I thought...if that's a regular shortwave I'm just a regular guy... So close to combining with the weak wave from the NW. A little quicker and we're looking at a much stronger system, that was showing up 3-4 days ago with higher QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Euro pretty far south The models will get this fully figured out by the 18Z runs tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Here are some fun factoids to taunt and annoy your friends and coworkers with regarding this upcoming Monday's Holiday (Washington's Birthday, not Presidents Day, FYI), courtesy of KBGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 It's actually pretty amazing they don't find a way to phase.. Probably would cut anyway lol I'm starting to wonder If the CF is acting as a kicker, at least on some guidance.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 This could be yet another over-performer. Get on the happy train winter-cancel LeeLee/Matt...lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Guidance has the heaviest snow just north of the LP..Hrrr Nam Hi Rez Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Guidance has the heaviest snow just north of the LP..Hrrr Nam Hi Rez Nam I keep reminding myself that models do a pretty rough job of predicting the exact location of the heavy axis. Can be 50-75 miles off. At least we aren’t gonna sweat the mix line... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Not too bad. Love to see a 50 mile bump north. Enhancement gonna help more than this I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 My Point and click forecast. Tonight Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 29. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Snow before 2pm, then a chance of snow showers between 2pm and 3pm, then snow likely after 3pm. High near 32. North wind 7 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow, mainly before 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 9. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: My Point and click forecast. Tonight Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 29. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Snow before 2pm, then a chance of snow showers between 2pm and 3pm, then snow likely after 3pm. High near 32. North wind 7 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow, mainly before 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 9. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. That's 8-14" for you by Fri AM... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 KBUF is toking on something special lately cause their discussions sometimes resemble someone with severe ADHD, not that ADHD is bad or anything, Seinfeld reference, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 BUF AFD... The “sweet spot”... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... After a day of uneventful weather...our attention will now be focused on a couple of shortwaves digging across the Upper Rio Grande Valley. The resulting cyclogenesis over Texas will yield an area of low pressure that will track from the Lower Mississippi to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys early tonight...then to Pennsylvania by late tonight. The track of the storm system...being just a few (latitudinal) degrees to our south...will place our region in the `sweet` spot for widespread accumulating snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 We won't be seeing any taint, thats a + but rates will take an immediate tumble and will most likely not be like the past 2 events. It felt like I was living on the coast again, with half dollar parachutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Its a rapidly progressive Positively tilted system and we're lucky cause if the Northern stream really took hold of this in the Mid West, we'd be talking Cutter over Detroit so thank God for the progressive Positively tilt to this monster, or what it could have been. The cold snap would of been much more pronounced if the System was stronger and it cut, but I'll sacrifice a weaker system for no taint and lesser ratios, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: My Point and click forecast. Tonight Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 29. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Snow before 2pm, then a chance of snow showers between 2pm and 3pm, then snow likely after 3pm. High near 32. North wind 7 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow, mainly before 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 9. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. 8 to 14? That's warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Its amazing this doesn't phase, wow! All the energy is already ahead of the trough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 What happened to our bone chilling cold? Lol Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -7. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Gfs may be best case scenario for next week, front end thump, rain, back end snow.. Even though it wouldn't take much to be all snow, but not this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Kept wondering where this Thursday night 2-4” was coming from as the storm is pulling away and a NW flow was setting up. This could be cool... While the main area of snow will move out of the region...there will be a pair of cold fronts that could trigger localized snow squalls during the afternoon. The first front will push south across the western counties during the afternoon. Many of the higher resolution guidance packages suggest that some organized snow squalls will break out along and ahead of this first boundary...and given a steepening of the lapse rates below 10k ft...cannot argue against this reasoning. I do take issue with some referring to this as the true arctic front though...as there will clearly be a second boundary push south during the early evening. H925 temps will sharply drop off in the wake of this second boundary...and THIS is when I would think that any squalls would be present. There is little baroclinicity with the first boundary...but will adhere to the consensus of the mesoscale models and include some heavy snow and squally weather with the first as well. Before leaving this vein...it would not be out of the question that localized forcing from either boundary could support some thunder and lightning with the heavier squalls. The level of -10c is high enough to allow for a mixed phase layer that would support graupel...and with a convective depth of roughly 10k ft...electrification is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Filling in nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 It sure doesn’t look like a 2-4 thing. It looks like a much bigger deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Sucks for freak.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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