CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 4:35 AM, TugHillMatt said: Bummer, looking at radar, it looks to be staying in Oswego County.Yeah, I was gonna mention that as I'm about 18 miles to ur NNE and Wolfie's about 28 miles to my North perhaps a bit farther. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 4:38 AM, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, I was gonna mention that as I'm about 18 miles to ur NNE and Wolfie's about 28 miles to my North perhaps a bit farther. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Expand Enjoy this rare sighting of a lake effect snow band! I was staying up to see if I should go for a Jebwalk...but that nudge back north on the radar answered that one. haha Good night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 We've gone over to S+ but it looks like it's not going to last much longer anyhow so we might hit 1/2" Maybe if it stays this heavy an 1" but that'll be it. I was expecting nothing so thats a +. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Hoping the GEM is onto something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 4:45 AM, CNY-LES FREAK said: We've gone over to S+ but it looks like it's not going to last much longer anyhow so we might hit 1/2" Maybe if it stays this heavy an 1" but that'll be it. I was expecting nothing so thats a +. Expand Band is ending before it shifts south. What kind of f***ery is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Is there really any way that we avoid a 50F degree rain storm a week from now? I don't see how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 1:06 PM, cny rider said: Is there really any way that we avoid a 50F degree rain storm a week from now? I don't see how. Expand Ask the euro...it is not on the same page, at all, as the GFS. In fact a 50 mile shift south would look just like a similar track to this event. And looking beyond that it has another southern storm lifting from the gulf. It tells the GFS to hold my beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 1:10 PM, Thinksnow18 said: Ask the euro...it is not on the same page, at all, as the GFS. In fact a 50 mile shift south would look just like a similar track to this event. And looking beyond that it has another southern storm lifting from the gulf. It tells the GFS to hold my beer. Expand This is when the superior H500 Z scores of the EC model will fail us and cave to the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 1:10 PM, Thinksnow18 said: Ask the euro...it is not on the same page, at all, as the GFS. In fact a 50 mile shift south would look just like a similar track to this event. And looking beyond that it has another southern storm lifting from the gulf. It tells the GFS to hold my beer. Expand I hope you're right but even on the Euro that SE ridge looks mighty stout.......going to be hard to overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 2:24 PM, cny rider said: I hope you're right but even on the Euro that SE ridge looks mighty stout.......going to be hard to overcome that. Expand EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 2:44 PM, BuffaloWeather said: EPS Expand 50 miles is all that will take. It's not far off...and on the post below...an I missing something? Has anyone spoke of that much accumulation for buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 2:54 PM, Thinksnow18 said: 50 miles is all that will take. It's not far off...and on the post below...an I missing something? Has anyone spoke of that much accumulation for buffalo? Expand That's including the lake effect/enhancement that comes through after the initial 3-6" from the low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 2:54 PM, Thinksnow18 said: 50 miles is all that will take. It's not far off...and on the post below...an I missing something? Has anyone spoke of that much accumulation for buffalo? Expand Did you see this? Pretty crazy. I haven't dropped below 10 degrees at my location either. While many areas have reached single digit lows this winter season, the coldest temperature at the Buffalo Airport has only been 10F, and this cold airmass will likely end the streak of non-single digit temperatures on the 14th, a streak ending at 342 days (tied 4th longest). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I'd say 2 to 4 for roc with low then another 3 to 5 with lake. My guess 5 to 9 for 2 days at airport. 6 to 12 east side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 2:55 PM, BuffaloWeather said: That's including the lake effect/enhancement that comes through after the initial 3-6" from the low pressure. Expand They must be pretty impressed with tomorrow evening. Oddly no one else seems to be catching on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 3:04 PM, Thinksnow18 said: They must be pretty impressed with tomorrow evening. Oddly no one else seems to be catching on... Expand I think it’s ridiculous. But we’ll see. I mean, how does Rochester and BUF get 8-12??? I’m thinking 3-5 total TOTAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 That's 8"-12" Dave.. Not really impressed with this"cold snap" lol Forecast lows are warmer than many nights I've already seen.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 3:41 PM, rochesterdave said: I think it’s ridiculous. But we’ll see. I mean, how does Rochester and BUF get 8-12??? I’m thinking 3-5 total TOTAL. Expand Normally I'd say KBUF being KBUF but they were pretty much spot on with the last event for accumulation totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 HRRR doing its thang 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Gain a little latitude and they've actually had a decent winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Gfs coming closer to the eps mean.. Obviously still work to do.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Just read the 11:25 AFD from KBUF...unless I missed it this morning, KBUF is bumping up snow totals tonight and is mentioning 1" to 2" snowfall rates for a few hours tonight with a once in a generation jet streak into the right rear quadrant producing max lift and perfect snow growth region...while they do not believe any area will receive warning amounts with this first system I can see now why the map paints 8" to 12" for buf and roc as they are expecting a few to several inches tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 5:09 PM, Thinksnow18 said: Just read the 11:25 AFD from KBUF...unless I missed it this morning, KBUF is bumping up snow totals tonight and is mentioning 1" to 2" snowfall rates for a few hours tonight with a once in a generation jet streak into the right rear quadrant producing max lift and perfect snow growth region...while they do not believe any area will receive warning amounts with this first system I can see now why the map paints 8" to 12" for buf and roc as they are expecting a few to several inches tomorrow night. Expand lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Just read the disco and as Thinksnow said, BUF is super bullish on this little storm. Toyed with raising warning flags a couple times in disco and suggested very effective snowfall rates/ parameters. They love talking about the exit jet etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 It’s hard to discount BUF because they are so good but I don’t quite see it. The track is good for enhancement but that’s not what they are excited about. In fact, they mention a minima along the south shore and a maxima from BUF to just south of the thruway through Ontario and Livingston. It’ll be fun to see this play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 5:28 PM, rochesterdave said: Just read the disco and as Thinksnow said, BUF is super bullish on this little storm. Toyed with raising warning flags a couple times in disco and suggested very effective snowfall rates/ parameters. They love talking about the exit jet etc.... Expand The left-exit never gets love...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 5:28 PM, rochesterdave said: Just read the disco and as Thinksnow said, BUF is super bullish on this little storm. Toyed with raising warning flags a couple times in disco and suggested very effective snowfall rates/ parameters. They love talking about the exit jet etc.... Expand Didn't up accums for the first time period ending 10am tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Euro pretty far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 5:57 PM, rochesterdave said: Euro pretty far south Expand Like we've talked about before, the track could look consistent for days and days and days and days....and then shifts within 24 hours. Then, when you're hoping for that 24 hours shift to happen, it won't happen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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