rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 GEM and GFS remain good hits. All the big models did better on the last one with positioning. No? Curious to see the Euro. As always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: GEM and GFS remain good hits. All the big models did better on the last one with positioning. No? Curious to see the Euro. As always. Yeah I'm kinda surprised you guys are putting more stock in the lower end models to why QPF is lower. GFS still spits out almost 6" at KBUF and I'm not sure that's the second part later Thursday into Friday were ratios will be 15 or 20 to 1. I'm still thinking when is said and done between both parts a solid 7 to 10 inches from southern Erie north to Lake Ontario eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 The SR guidance only goes out till Thursday morning..GFS and Ggem at the same time are 2"-4" .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Euro came in a touch lower and a tiny bit SE. like the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 12z euro Fwiw.. Has more of NW component behind the front as you can see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2020 Author Share Posted February 11, 2020 Yeah we need that shortwave and low pressure to merge at the perfect time like the GFS is showing, the Euro shows the wave being a tad late which decreases overall QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Looks ok for 3-6" areawide, to my eye. Temps a bit marginal but should keep taint amd rain south of the border for the most part. Haven't looked at soundings and its early/mid Feb so I can't imagine the sun angle excuse is in play yet for lowering snow accumulations. Maybe lower impact on roads at 32F...but that is more a function of the 5x10^6 tons of salt spewed on them per linear mile in upstate NY. It's free right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I gotta to admit though, the salt they spew on the roads all across CNY but specifically the city and the burbs, if ya wanna call them burbs, is absolutely atrocious, like you'd think we've received 400" thus far. I've actually thought I hit road bumps in some neighborhoods that were salt piles, RLMAO, I mean it's f'in nuts and if no one understands what I'm talking about just head to the Salt City, Syracuse's nickname, lol!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I haven't even looked at the models regarding this upcoming event yet, lol, cause with all the previous disappointments of the season, I find it hard to follow every run just to see the same prognosis day after day so now I wait till we're 1-2 days out and if its still a threat then I become a little more invested and I'm really not yet invested in this event but I am interested about the LE potential afterwards and it won't be a wickedly dry airmass like the last was so thats gonna help and with the temps forecasted, we can see some nice surprises anywhere in CNY. Its one of those airmass's that any or every cloud that passes overhead will contain snow, lol! If we can manage to see 4-6" before the LE, I'll be 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Gotta spend those $6,000 a year taxes on something....why not salt? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 KBUF doesn't sound so bad! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1259 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 .SYNOPSIS... The passage of a weak cold front will initiate some lake effect snow showers east of both lakes tonight...otherwise an increasing amount of attention will turn towards a plowable snowfall that will be experienced across the bulk of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This will be followed by the coldest airmass so far this season to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak cold front over southern Ontario late this afternoon will push across our forecast area this evening. While a vigorous shortwave associated with this boundary will help to generate scattered snow showers for some areas this evening...a lack of deep moisture will limit the coverage to areas closer to the lakes. This will especially be the case along the Chautauqua ridge and east of Lake Ontario where a short lived lake response will support nuisance accumulations of an inch or two...with up to three inches possible on the Tug. By daybreak Wednesday...warm advection will already be under way. This will shut down the response of Lake Erie by sunrise...while the residual lake snow showers near the Tug Hill will push north across Jefferson county while weakening to just flurries. Otherwise...a large surface high moving from the Upper Ohio Valley across the Mid Atlantic states will support fair dry weather while also encouraging at least partial clearing. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Water vapor imagery displays a cut-off low pressure along the AZ/Mexico border and this feature will advance northeastward... eventually joining with a northern branch shortwave to form a deep positively tilted trough that will pass across our region to start this forecast period. The 12Z suite of models remain in good agreement at this stage, with both the passage of the upper level trough as well as the track of the surface low... with this surface low tracking from western TN Wednesday night to central PA Thursday morning and then off the northern New England coastline Thursday afternoon. To start Wednesday evening...our region will be dry, with point soundings displaying a dry wedge between 925-850 hPa. A southerly flow ahead of this upper level trough will be transporting moisture northward, with isentropic lift generating light snow across our region Wednesday evening as the lower levels saturate. Additionally a strong 220 knot 300 hPa jet will be generally W-E across the Upper Great Lakes and southern Canada this period, with the favorable right entrance region across our area Wednesday night and into Thursday. This jet will further increase the synoptic lift for precipitation. As the surface low tracks northeastward Wednesday night a baroclinic boundary will tighten over our region, with a warmer wedge of air across the Southern Tier, and towards the Finger Lakes. Along and to the south of this baroclinic boundary a wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain will be possible...that could even change to plain rain late Wednesday night near the state line. Across the northern 2/3rds of the CWA snow will be the dominate p-type...with just a small chance of sleet/freezing rain late Wednesday night across WNY. As the surface low tracks to our east Thursday a much colder airmass will settle across our region, with precipitation becoming all snow by early Thursday afternoon. Moderate snow will be likely just to the northwest of the surface low...with this occurring late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning over parts of our region. Additionally 850 hPa frontogentic forcing will be increasing across WNY...leading to enhanced snowfall rates. Given the positive tilt to the upper level trough, speed of the surface low and lack of deep moisture in the dendritic snow growth zone, overall snow totals will generally be held to within the high advisory range. We will continue to mention this snow threat in the HWO. Thursday night a much colder airmass will settle across our region, with 850 hPa temperatures falling into the negative teens...to lower negative 20s Celsius across Lake Ontario and points eastward. This will generate a much higher SWE, with fluffy lake effect snow falling to the south and southeast of the Lakes. This activity will likely peak Friday afternoon...when inversion heights are at their peak and a very cold airmass creates steep instability over the still wide open lakes. Later Friday afternoon, a much drier airmass coinciding with the 850 hPa ridge axis will end much of the lake snows east of Lake Erie Friday evening. As winds become light over the region Friday night what lake snows are left south and southeast of Lake Ontario will contract back towards the Lake, with a tea kettle band of snow then drifting out over Lake Ontario as synoptic flow becomes light from the south. T I still don't know about the pos tilt cause I haven't looked yet but I will very shortly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I haven't even looked at the models regarding this upcoming event yet, lol, cause with all the previous disappointments of the season, I find it hard to follow every run just to see the same prognosis day after day so now I wait till we're 1-2 days out and if its still a threat then I become a little more invested and I'm really not yet invested in this event but I am interested about the LE potential afterwards and it won't be a wickedly dry airmass like the last was so thats gonna help and with the temps forecasted, we can see some nice surprises anywhere in CNY. Its one of those airmass's that any or every cloud that passes overhead will contain snow, lol! If we can manage to see 4-6" before the LE, I'll be I have stepped back from looking at the models run to run as well. Too tiring. I did read one of the NWS discussions yesterday that said they were only expecting 1 to 2 INCHES of lake effect on Friday because of flake size. They said it would be a "greasy snow" so not sure how impressive it will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Wind direction matters a little too lol Euro for example has a NW flow behind the front while the GFS is due north changing to NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected with patchy freezing rain. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches with a light glaze of ice accumulation. * WHERE...Northern Oneida, Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Schuyler, Tompkins, Madison, Southern Oneida, Cortland, Chenango and Otsego counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Interestingly, P&C has heavy snow listed for Thursday night (at times). The disco is still downplaying the lake response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Soon this will barely register as advisory. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 meh. At least its snowy lately and cold is coming. Let's see if early next week breaks our way... ...edit...which is not looking good on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: meh. At least its snowy lately and cold is coming. Let's see if early next week breaks our way... ...edit...which is not looking good on the 18z GFS. 18z is colder than prior runs but still wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: meh. At least its snowy lately and cold is coming. Let's see if early next week breaks our way... ...edit...which is not looking good on the 18z GFS. 18z see is the best run yet in regards to next weeks rain storm. I think we have had almost 10 runs now that have trended at least in the right direction. As for the Thursday storm, I'm not sure where the doom and gloom is coming from. This storm has been 3-6" for days and still looks easily locked in as such. In fact the latest run looks about as good as any. We only got 4 inches with the storm last Friday and it was a great day of chasing and snowboarding. We just have to adjust our standards a little this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: 18z see is the best run yet in regards to next weeks rain storm. I think we have had almost 10 runs now that have trended at least in the right direction. As for the Thursday storm, I'm not sure where the doom and gloom is coming from. This storm has been 3-6" for days and still looks easily locked in as such. In fact the latest run looks about as good as any. We only got 4 inches with the storm last Friday and it was a great day of chasing and snowboarding. We just have to adjust our standards a little this winter. East side easily doubled or tripled that 4”. I’ve heard that from several people too. When I returned, on Monday, from my trip there was evidence of a much bigger storm than what the airport reported. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: East side easily doubled or tripled that 4”. I’ve heard that from several people too. When I returned, on Monday, from my trip there was evidence of a much bigger storm than what the airport reported. Weird. Well it’s not too weird. The storm was certainly biased East west with the highest amounts east of us. From the primary synoptic side of the storm I measured 4 inches of low ratio snow. Then overnight into Saturday we picked up 3 inches of absolute fake 30:1 snow. Then another inch on sat night. So total from Friday to Sunday was 8 inches. But only 4 of those inches had any real substance too them. For once the airport measurement was spot on compared to my backyard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I have stepped back from looking at the models run to run as well. Too tiring. I did read one of the NWS discussions yesterday that said they were only expecting 1 to 2 INCHES of lake effect on Friday because of flake size. They said it would be a "greasy snow" so not sure how impressive it will be? I peeked at some soundings and absolutely true. We've seen this many times before. Its very wintery and vis can be low, but accums are in the inch or two range on our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: 18z see is the best run yet in regards to next weeks rain storm. I think we have had almost 10 runs now that have trended at least in the right direction. As for the Thursday storm, I'm not sure where the doom and gloom is coming from. This storm has been 3-6" for days and still looks easily locked in as such. In fact the latest run looks about as good as any. We only got 4 inches with the storm last Friday and it was a great day of chasing and snowboarding. We just have to adjust our standards a little this winter. Agree. We're in a better place right now than most of this winter. We still have a solid 4-6 weeks to go. If you live south of the NY border (and CT/Mass border in NE), this winter has been an atrocity for snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Soon this will barely register as advisory. Lol Ok Deb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I kinda look like her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I kinda look like her Pervert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 The 0Z HRRR looks like crap. Then again, I don't really find it to be a very good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The 0Z HRRR looks like crap. Then again, I don't really find it to be a very good model. Looked just far enough south to remove that dirty taint from corrupting your precip with sleet and a glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Looked just far enough south to remove that dirty taint from corrupting your precip with sleet and a glaze. Actually, it shows rain/mix for the first couple hours to the north of the snow line over the Lake Plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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