wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 12z CMC and 12zGFS Keep in mind this over like 36 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Go look at NE forum right now, some epic meltdowns because of their lack of snow right now. I think some of those guys would sacrifice their first born for a good snowstorm. I understand when winter doesn't produce people get frustrated, but that group is off the rails. And look at how often some of them post. 50k is not unusual over there. Get a life. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: I understand when winter doesn't produce people get frustrated, but that group is off the rails. And look at how often some of them post. 50k is not unusual over there. Get a life. I post so much so I can stay ahead of Wolf, I know hes secretly trying to catch me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 12z CMC and 12zGFS Keep in mind this over like 36 hours lol It is Wolfie, but more importantly it's pretty well modeled by all the big guns. I'd take back to back 8" plus events during a winter that rivals the same track record as finding a 1 inch needle in a pile of 1 1/2" needles 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Yeah, it's pretty locked in across all models. I think WSW for all of the area, especially with the cold and LES potential that comes after it passes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Deepest its been so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS Those are all pretty solid hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 I am glad it comes (HOPEFULLY) before I leave for Florida on Saturday morning. Going from single digits to mid 80. The wife will be heaven...I will be in he...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 54 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah, it's pretty locked in across all models. I think WSW for all of the area, especially with the cold and LES potential that comes after it passes. Maybe I'm wrong about this, but it seems like the Buffalo WFO is recently very reluctant to issue WSW for the Buffalo metro unless the low probability (10%) scenario meets WSW criteria. Didn't the November events get only advisory notices, even though at lease one met WSW criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Quick hitter on the European, probably 6-9 hrs of snow with the first system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Quick hitter on the European, probably 6-9 hrs of snow with the first system.. Like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Euro is nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 39 minutes ago, WNash said: Maybe I'm wrong about this, but it seems like the Buffalo WFO is recently very reluctant to issue WSW for the Buffalo metro unless the low probability (10%) scenario meets WSW criteria. Didn't the November events get only advisory notices, even though at lease one met WSW criteria? I think Nov was a WSW. But yeah this one is going to be a close call with snowfall amounts reaching criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 40 minutes ago, WNash said: Maybe I'm wrong about this, but it seems like the Buffalo WFO is recently very reluctant to issue WSW for the Buffalo metro unless the low probability (10%) scenario meets WSW criteria. Didn't the November events get only advisory notices, even though at lease one met WSW criteria? Aren't WSW's and advisories and all that jazz only important for the clueless general population? I couldn't care less how they qualify a storm in regards to verbiage as long as it snows and snows a lot, lol. The nomenclature doesn't change the tangible weather that occurs. For super weather nerds like us we shouldn't care at all what silly level of advisory the NWS gives out, we know whats going to happen in far more detail than some dumbed down product. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Aren't WSW's and advisories and all that jazz only important for the clueless general population? I couldn't care less how they qualify a storm in regards to verbiage as long as it snows and snows a lot, lol. The nomenclature doesn't change the tangible weather that occurs. For super weather nerds like us we shouldn't care at all what silly level of advisory the NWS gives out, we know whats going to happen in far more detail than some dumbed down product. What he said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Temps Friday and Saturday look pretty ridiculous on some progs. We might achieve Wolfie like temps down here near the Syracuse sauna and orange groves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Temps Friday and Saturday look pretty ridiculous on some progs. We might achieve Wolfie like temps down here near the Syracuse sauna and orange groves. Get out the fans and smoke pots, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Talk about a perfect day for skiing Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Saturday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Ukmet probably overdone lol That low in the dacks would be close to record territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Bgm doesn't sound to enthused... As a northern stream upper trough digs into the northwestern Great Lakes, a southern stream embedded wave will run out ahead of it which quickly zips our direction. Southwest flow aloft again taps Gulf moisture, and sends it up our way with forced ascent occurring via the right entrance region of a strong upper jet. Models are still exhibiting some inconsistency for the track of the resultant low pressure, though with consensus having shifted a bit cooler/further south. Much guidance takes the low through Central to Northeast PA into Catskills-Hudson Valley, but there are still some with tracks more up the Finger Lakes to Adirondacks. The one thing in common, is that thermal profiles show at least a narrow zone ahead of the low in which a warm above freezing layer aloft manages to overlap a below freezing layer near the surface; the question is where and how much, in terms of freezing rain/sleet potential. At this point a light accumulation of snow to the tune of about 1-3 inches (perhaps slightly more north of the NY Thruway) appears the more probable solution for Wednesday night-early Thursday before rain mixes for at least a chunk of the area. Patchy ice could play a factor as well but low confidence for locations; a more southern track could limit this potential considerably. There is still quite a bit to sort out on the details, but this has the potential to impact the Thursday morning commute with some messy conditions so monitor the forecast for updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: What he said... Agreed, but I feel like KBUF has been soft-pedaling forecasts recently, erring on the low side. We've had a garbage winter, and even when they're wrong, we haven't been able overshoot their call by much, but it's an issue that they've taken a turn towards the cautious lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Accumulating snow remains likely Wednesday night into Thursday as a southern stream system tracks south-southeast of the forecast area. Low pressure will become organized in eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday. A strong upper level ridge will slide off the southeast U.S. coast and allow strong, moisture advection into the Gulf Coast states. A upper level trough across the Central Plains will steer the low north along the Appalachians moving into Pennslyvania by early Thursday morning. A very strong jet stream will track along the leading edge of the upper level trough and curve around the top of the upper level ridge which will supply the low with strong lift in the right front entrance region. A warm front will extend west to east from the surface low, approaching southern New York Wednesday night. Warm air advection will increase in intensity as the low moves closer and snow will spread from south to north across Western and North Central NY Wednesday night. Overall, this system has been on track to move ahead of an approaching northern stream system which will limit intensification and therefore harsher conditions across the region. While models have been consistent the last few days with the low moving south-southeast of a majority of the forecast area, there remians question if there will be a warm layer aloft which will move into portions of Western NY. This would cause snow to mix with ice or rain. Using a consensus of model guidance, this period would be late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and be across inland portions of the forecast area including inland Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Overnight low temperatures will be mild, in the upper 20s to low 30s. This will produce a wetter snow with lower snow ratios. Places to the north of these areas will likely see snow accumulation of 3-6 inches which may warrent Winter Weather Advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Liking KBUF's forecast...if realized it wouldn't meet WSW criteria but we could see 6 to 10 over WNY over a 30 hour period...sounds like a fun 48 to 72 hours... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 From my conspiratorial eye, KBUF will underestimate the marginal temp synoptic events (which is all we've seen this year) and overestimate lake effect events. But they also do those maps that are always too high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Quite an early call.. Not sure why they included a little snow on Tuesday in with the wed night system.. This doesn't include what falls during the day Thursday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Deep winter = 2 high confidence snow chances and a wicked cold shot, and there is a lot of snowpack on the ground. Maybe someone should start a deep winter snow thread for these 'storms' since with a little LE the totals could rival last Fridays storm. = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 KBGM may be underenthused because the southern part of their CWA looks to get little or no snow? Even the northern half is probably 3-6" of synoptic, assuming it doesnt tick north in the next day or so which would push higher accum more into just Oneida county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 It snows for like 36 hours straight on the GFS. It merges the 2 systems right at us. Nearly perfect track for WNY, would think 6-12". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Energy with the shortwave from Alberta stays over us with really cold air and lots of moisture. If that's the track we're getting way over 3-6", especially in areas south of Ontario and Chat. ridge. 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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