MJO812 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Nice hit for the Vday storm on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: What a nice surprise! I immediately went for a walk as soon as I looked out the window. Working our way towards an inch already here in the No. Onon. area. Big, wet flakes covering everything. 31.5 degrees. Roads are extremely slippery. Even if it changes to rain, the roads will be ugly for the morning commute. Hoping to wake up to a big surprise! Yeah I forgot there was some snow in forecast. Just figured it was a non event until I went outside...close to an inch down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Tomorrow when the system goes north of L.ontario we will flip but probably won't have much Precipitation left.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Lots of pieces here. They could come together. Not doing it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Not bad results 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Not bad after a little enhancement and lake effect.. Gfs was solid a well..This includes tonights system which is not much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just hit my first inch, ripping out at the moment, 28.9°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Looks like about 1" so far. The dry hole has arrived. We'll see if anything else materializes here the rest of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Euro looks great for WNY. Almost a foot at BUF. Looks too good for 4 days out, 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Really it's 72 hours. Which is almost just close enough to get a touch excited...almost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 26 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Really it's 72 hours. Which is almost just close enough to get a touch excited...almost... 06z GFS looks perfect for all of us. Think this could be a solid 4-8" snowfall for most of this forum. Only 12 more runs to go! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Nice 4"+ this morning after a surprise 6" out of the last storm. Decent snowpack at my house finally. Hope it can stay around for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 About 3 inches overnight, lumpy mashed potato consistency. We just went above freezing. Still falling as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 These are daytime temps on Friday lol High pressure will then build across the region Friday night, which should provide good radiational cooling for most areas. If this pans out, temperatures should easily drop to near zero south of Lake Ontario, with lows 10 to 20 below across the North Country. The coldest high temperature in Buffalo so far this season is 20 (Jan 17) and the coldest low is 10 (Dec 19). At Rochester the coldest high is 18 (Jan 17) and low is 5 (Jan 20). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Overnight snow totals https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Thinking I'm going to Holiday on Saturday, should be a perfect day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 @DeltaT13 Mansfield above average now at 60" depth, we just booked our air bnb for next weekend. https://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 19 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: BW you're pretty much the guy when it comes to historical facts about our winters...so I've got one for you...what is the longest timeframe the AO has been positive in WNY weather? This has to be close. We have our answer The most recently observed Arctic Oscillation is the highest daily value in our historical record (6.34), breaking the past record from February 26th, 1990 (5.91). #AO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We have our answer The most recently observed Arctic Oscillation is the highest daily value in our historical record (6.34), breaking the past record from February 26th, 1990 (5.91). #AO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml So that's what a can of whoop ass feels like...son you just opened a whole case of whoop ass... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 As incredible as that level of AO is, I think it's equally incredible that we weren't torching really at any point during the time frame. Yes is was above average but it's been in the 60's and 70's in January in buffalo and I think we approached 60 once in the last month. Still an incredible number from normal none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: As incredible as that level of AO is, I think it's equally incredible that we weren't torching really at any point during the time frame. Yes is was above average but it's been in the 60's and 70's in January in buffalo and I think we approached 60 once in the last month. Still an incredible number from normal none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 LR NAM FWIW 3"-5" with the initial batch, cold front getting ready to swing through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 The impactful weather of the period will be Wednesday night through Thursday night when an accumulating snowfall is likely. Model guidance is in considerably better agreement than previous runs, but there are still differences in QPF, precipitation type, and timing. A broad area of low pressure associated with a southern branch shortwave will track from Tennessee, and then across Pennsylvania Wednesday night before exiting across the Gulf of Maine on Thursday. 00Z runs of the NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM continue the trend of not phasing this low with the northern branch as it moves by our area. This would keep the track to our south and leave it just cold enough to support snow across most of the cwa. The only exception is the western Southern Tier and Upper Genesee Valley where precipitation will probably mix with rain at times Wednesday night before colder air moves in behind the low Thursday morning. The second part of this event will come with the passage of the northern branch cold/arctic front around Thursday evening. There is not as good model agreement with this feature, with the 00Z ECMWF slower and weaker with the boundary than the GFS/GGEM. Either way, temperatures aloft will be plenty cold enough to support a lake response which will be enhanced by moisture from a shortwave which will accompany its passage. There may be a break in the snow during the day Thursday, but expect this will quickly be followed by a burst of snow with this front. It will be MUCH colder behind this front with temperatures falling into the single digits most areas Thursday night, with below zero readings across the North Country. The rapid drop in temperatures may pose a risk for a flash freeze of any standing water on roads or sidewalks. This also will support higher/fluffier snow ratios, and may be more impactful than the first round of synoptic snows. Combined, these are likely to bring at least several inches of snow to most locations. There is potential for more, especially across higher terrain in Western Southern Tier. Will continue to highlight this potential in the HWO, although model differences suggests its too early to get too specific with snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 This has the makings of a decent to possibly warning criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Navy rule? Lol Ironically the farthest NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Lucky we have that front coming down..lol Another bump north on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Lucky we have that front coming down..lol Another bump north on the gfs. That would be a perfect track for most of use. 72hrs? A little scary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 That's a nice hit on the 12z. This event really isn't far away time wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Go look at NE forum right now, some epic meltdowns because of their lack of snow. I think some of those guys would sacrifice their first born for a good snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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