PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Finally looks like winter Jesus Maine is buried. Caribou area NNW Maine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 You don't want to be in the bullseye 5 days out. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just missing right now.. Also depends on the strength/placement of HP to the north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: You don't want to be in the bullseye 5 days out. Lol It’s been moving to the north the last couple of runs. About another 100-125 miles would be fine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 A nice band coming off Erie and moving north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Better enjoy this little ripple we had because it's right back to the pattern of Pacific air with weak dying waves and cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 I actually was hoping to check out the xfl I have one spot in my house that gets 4g lol Spectrum customers throughout the northeast are experiencing service issues. Early Saturday afternoon Spectrum released this statement on Twitter: "We are aware of service issues in Upstate New York, Maine and New Hampshire at this time. We are investigating and working to resolve the problem. We apologize for any inconvenience this is causing." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Whiteface with a 28-40" depth, should add to that the 2 weeks. @DeltaT13 What's the website to track the high peaks snow depth? https://www.whiteface.com/mountain/conditions https://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: I actually was hoping to check out the xfl I have one spot in my house that gets 4g lol Spectrum customers throughout the northeast are experiencing service issues. Early Saturday afternoon Spectrum released this statement on Twitter: "We are aware of service issues in Upstate New York, Maine and New Hampshire at this time. We are investigating and working to resolve the problem. We apologize for any inconvenience this is causing." Typical Spectrum. I’ve been having issues with my cable with them that I never had with Time Warner. Good thing I can use my cell phone as a hot spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 18z gfs jumped north again, I think we know where this ones going lol Gfs has a lot of inland systems which we are going to have to deal with it.. Going to be a cold evening, down to 5.7°.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Down to -8, should start heading the other way soon.. Had to verify with the car thermometer lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Nice bands coming in off Erie. With the temps that’s gonna be pure fluff! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Just sitting here waiting for those bands that will probably fizzle out.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Saved by a transfer on the gfs lol But looks like a trend towards the European.. Icon has a nice look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 I see what you Wolfie, but in true NWS BUF fashion, they raised the stakes calling for good agreement for a decent snow event for Wed night and Thursday for buff and roch east and North...another nail biter... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 9° with light snow.. Had a "cheap" low yesterday as I made it to -8F before midnight and -9.2° after midnight.. Last nights Euro tracked the system right over us, 2"-3" of snow followed by some drizzle verbatim, not much in the way of Precipitation.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Wpc looks like they are siding with the European.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Looks like lots of opportunities in the next 10 days. Anyone of these southern systems could catch at the right time and we’d be off and running. Active AF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Pretty nice looking band trying to setup into metro BUF at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Gonna have to do it with some crappy teleconnections lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Gonna have to do it with some crappy teleconnections lol Remember when the epo was supposed to freefall? Well that was short lived. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Eps looks warm https://www.americanwx.com/forum/topic/7126-you-know-its-a-lousy-winter-when/page/4/?tab=comments#comment-1100262 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 To get snow we are going to have depend on good timing from blocking highs, in order to make them transfer lol At this stage of the game I'm just trying to pad the stats lol Euro fantasy range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Wouldn't be surprised to see an advisory issued for Oswego county, mainly over the tug.. Must be nice to upslope lol NAM one of the more favorable models here with about 3"-4", NWS going with 1"-2".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 NAM looking more Euro like for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Obviously subject to change.. 00Z model guidance has come into much better agreement than previous model runs. Considering the complexity of the forecast there still is a chance that model guidance will change again, however forecast will lean toward 00z model consensus as the most likely scenario at this point. Low pressure near Kentucky Wednesday evening is forecast to track across southern New England through Thursday. Meanwhile, a northern branch shortwave and associated arctic frontal boundary will dig into the western Great Lakes region. 00Z guidance is slow to phase the two waves, and generally tracks a fairly weak surface low to our south. Despite the weak surface wave, there is plenty of moisture and good upper level support for precipitation. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM show between a quarter and an inch of QPF Wednesday night and Thursday so have raised PoPs into the likely category. Precipitation type will depend on the exact track of the low and evolution of the system, but in general expect mostly snow from Buffalo and Rochester northward, and mostly rain across the Western Southern Tier. There`s still too much uncertainty to pin down snow amounts, but there is at least a potential for significant snow accumulations in the advisory range or more. Will add a mention to the HWO reflecting this possibility, but there are still lots of ways this system can evolve which would produce little if any snow. After this, forecast confidence increases, with model guidance suggesting the northern branch shortwave will be strong enough to push the arctic boundary through the region sometime in the vicinity of late Thursday. This is likely to bring much colder weather...possibly the coldest of the season. The core of the cold air should cross on Friday, with the GGEM/ECMWF both clipping the North Country with 850mb temperatures down to -30c. While this may not pan out, there is no doubt that Friday will be a cold day with highs forecast to be mainly in the teens with single digits across the North Country. Lows Friday night should easily drop into the single digits with lows well below zero across the North Country. Forecast is about 5 degrees colder than NBM, and if the colder model guidance verifies this may have to be lowered even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 "...there still is a chance that model guidance will change again,..." Oh Really? You don't say... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Eventually the front will pushed this east/SE, the question is when lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Gfs farther south, weak sauce in regards to Precipitation but better than rain lol Icon is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Some frigid air behind the front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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