BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: 12z NAM What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: What happened? That was 6z, here is 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 Going with 3" for mby between both events. I picked up more when it wasn't even forecasted a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That was 6z, here is 12z 7" here, between two systems...I guess we'll have to take whatever scraps get hurled at us this winter. Of course this is the NAM. I'm just hoping we can keep some snowcover after the rain on Thursday afternoon and evening. Probably will as sfc temps don't look to get too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 Analogs http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F024&rundt=2020020500&map=thbCOOP72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 7" here, between two systems...I guess we'll have to take whatever scraps get hurled at us this winter. Of course this is the NAM. I'm just hoping we can keep some snowcover after the rain on Thursday afternoon and evening. Probably will as sfc temps don't look to get too warm. I'm not sold on the man but what strikes me is even it shows more snow for the northern counties. My guess is it'll all be about nowcasting the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 7" here, between two systems...I guess we'll have to take whatever scraps get hurled at us this winter. Of course this is the NAM. I'm just hoping we can keep some snowcover after the rain on Thursday afternoon and evening. Probably will as sfc temps don't look to get too warm. That's a lot of rain, but temps don't get too warm for too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I'm hopeful for tomorrow's event as there a nice bit of cold air in place beforehand. This is certainly more helpful that starting with a 45 degree day before the event. We're mid-20s today which will help keep the ground cold - even if the 2m temps rise above freezing temporarily. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 IDK. Roc East, this COULD be a big one. U take what u can get this year. Why are u so down on the second half SYRMAX? It looks like a decent potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: IDK. Roc East, this COULD be a big one. U take what u can get this year. Why are u so down on the second half SYRMAX? It looks like a decent potential. Even the NWS has a WSW for the 2nd... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's a lot of rain, but temps don't get too warm for too long 0Z Euro is a lot colder than that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Not that it matters much but the ICON has cut back some for round 2. and looked less wound up and more east. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 ICON was very similar. 6z was a 978. It just came back to earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 RGEM looks nice for CNY at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Little bit dicey at 48.. Rgem is one of the warmer models in between systems, bringing plain rain pretty far north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 27 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: IDK. Roc East, this COULD be a big one. U take what u can get this year. Why are u so down on the second half SYRMAX? It looks like a decent potential. Probably because every system has gone to crap for our area...especially in the day or 2 leading up to it. I mean, even tonight's little bit keeps looking worse and worse and worse. I don't think we will be positive until it's actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 We have to many models these days, no way to ever have a consensus, each differ on thermal profiles and precip output.. Just gonna have to wait and see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Little bit dicey at 48.. Rgem is one of the warmer models in between systems, bringing plain rain pretty far north.. Def strong and NW. but temps crashing here and you have a LP that will skip over Albany at 978ish. It’ll crush Syracuse region for a few hours at least. This is all front end (obviously) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 12z GFS never flips to rain buffalo north during the run...goes to mixed precip and a little ice but never plain rain. And FWIW all models are showing greatest accums in WNY in the 1 1/2 counties they with held the WSW for...just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 GFS looks like a real storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 This is cold. And main event just getting cooking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: This is cold. And main event just getting cooking. Normally this is a dream track for us...not sure why it wouldn't be this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: This is cold. And main event just getting cooking. I agree 700mb most important. and plenty cold. WAA quickly moves out after first overunning batch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I’m gonna get you CNY folks excited if I have to carry you on my back into a blizzard. Lol. It’s a good storm guys!! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 GFS looks good. At this time, I will stick with Euro Ukie and GFS in that order, and then tomorrow take the NAM and mesocscale guidance more serious. this is so borderline for many that the R/S/I line will be gametime call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, 96blizz said: GFS looks like a real storm... drops 16-22 inches across a large area of the dacks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 The only folks who should be bitching (well deserved) is those poor bastards near Buf and IAG. They could get a little skunked. North towns probably get a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: GFS looks good. At this time, I will stick with Euro Ukie and GFS in that order, and then tomorrow take the NAM and mesocscale guidance more serious. this is so borderline for many that the R/S/I line will be gametime call. Are you in Oneonta? I can’t remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: I’m gonna get you CNY folks excited if I have to carry you on my back into a blizzard. Lol. It’s a good storm guys!! Haha. I love your enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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