wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Euro was quite a bit warmer for the Thursday event, made up for it some with the Friday event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 And it goes to crap on the 6Z NAM runs...lol Secondary development way too late and east. My call from 3 days ago of the Albany area getting the most may end up correct. These extreme changes on the models within 1 to 2 days of an event are ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 So it appears that every county in upstate New York has a winter storm watch with the exception of N. Erie and. Niagara county...seems about right for this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 So the in house models on WIVB (euro as he actually showed it) shows the heaviest accumulation over the NW part of WNY, exactly where the WSW isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So the in house models on WIVB (euro as he actually showed it) shows the heaviest accumulation over the NW part of WNY, exactly where the WSW isn't. That is probably just for tonight. The Friday part may fringe you guys which is why total snow will be lower there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: That is probably just for tonight. The Friday part may fringe you guys which is why total snow will be lower there. Actually he's showing the opposite...and is literally showing the Euro accums not his own estimates. Plus if the storm track is correct and it goes to Eastern NY as the GFS shows then KBUF is wrong regarding the lake enhanced snows on a NW wind. That trajectory would be almost impossible. The more likely wind direction would be NNE to northerly to the NW as the low pulls away. I feel like they never get this right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Actually he's showing the opposite...and is literally showing the Euro accums not his own estimates. Plus if the storm track is correct and it goes to Eastern NY as the GFS shows then KBUF is wrong regarding the lake enhanced snows on a NW wind. That trajectory would be almost impossible. The more likely wind direction would be NNE to northerly to the NW as the low pulls away. I feel like they never get this right. Hmm, that makes sense. My advice, based on this winter, especially here: take the lowest amount and run with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Unfortunately Thursday is looking warmer but Friday is looking better...May even have to deal with a light rain in between systems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Best gfs run in a while.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Probably only see 1"-3" on Thursday with a little ice... Friday has the potential for 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Hoping the S. Shore can hold the frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: Hoping the S. Shore can hold the frozen precip. Any one have the overall accum map? If the trend continues I'm really wondering what they're looking at for Niagara county at minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 That BUF map seems way too high for tonight. My thoughts, based on the general outcome of this type of setup in the past, is a quick inch followed by some sleet showers, and over to occasional light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Lets outline some timing of the onset and changeover of the pcpn. The snow will start across the Southern Tier early this evening and overspread the remainder of the western counties by midnight. The leading edge of the snow will quickly work across the Eastern lake Ontario region after midnight...while the transition to mixed pcpn will start to take place over the southern Tier. On Thursday...the remaining moderately heavy wet snow will continue to change to a mix of sleet and freezing rain before completely changing to rain over the western counties by midday. Its worth noting that the pcpn over the western counties Thursday afternoon will be more spotty due to the weaker forcing and mid level drying. Otherwise...the change from snow to a mix will take about six hours from the onset. Areas east of Lake Ontario may not complete the change over to just rain...rather experiencing a longer duration of snow sleet and or freezing rain. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Another surface wave will develop across the mid Atlantic States Thursday night then move northeast along the eastern seaboard into Friday. This low will develop another round of precipitation across the area, especially the second half of the night. Developing northerly flow will pull down colder air changing the precipitation back to snow, although there are still are model differences on when this occurs. The 00z GFS remains the warm outlier, so we favored the colder NAM/Canadian solutions and went for a quicker change over with snow continuing into Friday. The general expectation is a 1-3 inch accumulation Thursday night with most of this falling after midnight with the higher amounts focused across the higher terrain. The colder solutions showing 850 mb temperatures lowering to near -14c during Friday, favoring a period of northwest flow lake enhanced snow, as synoptic moisture lingers across the area at least into early Friday night. It seems plausible that there may be a window where moderate to possible heavy accumulations could occur Friday into Friday night. The best chance to see locally higher accumulations would be from Rochester to the southern Tug Hill, perhaps as far south as the Bristol Hills and over the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Still some uncertainty to how all this will play out, but there is enough model support to issue a winter storm watch for the entire area for the potential of greater than 6 inches of snow during this time frame, with the exception of the far northwest part of the area where there should be a minimum in snowfall around the Buffalo metro area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Notice the hole in northern Erie? Yet almost 2/3rds of Niagara are 8 to 12 but not included in a WSW? It also appears to my eye that lake enhanced area is on a NNE wind. There's more snow to the SW Niagara county than there is to the NW part of the county which would not indicate NW winds. I think this will change overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Well if the 6z gfs is to be believed, 850s May be a little to warm when winds are out of the NNE/NE, at least at first..As we are mostly in a "lull" Once winds shift NW/NNW 850s drop to -12c to -18c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 It's those damn pesky 850mb lows lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I would love to see this band about 30 miles west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Probally will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Looks good for Pauly.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Weather prediction center day 3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I would love to see this band about 30 miles west lol 18z and winds are still out of the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks good for Pauly.. Yes look amazing’ Looks like they are also noting the potential for a CCB band with round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Nam for round 1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Once again the H5 is digging more yet again for round 2. Might even be stronger than last few runs. Pretty far west also with the second developing low as its being captured by the trough and bombing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Not like 0z was but a big hit for the dacks as well. Time to start the storm prep! I will start looking at short range Meso models tonight to see where best lifting and banding may occur. What’s good to see that all the models are showing is Plattsburgh will likely not see a lull at all but instead get 36 hours of straight snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Looks like a nice run for all. Not a blockbuster but lots of snow spread around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Tim will recognize this setup. A crush job for south shore. Double totals. All on back end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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