rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Now that was a shite winter. We had 2-3" of snow on May 18th 2002, around Albany and Cap District. It was a SMH event as i had planted tomatoes and other sensitive veggies the day before (to stop my wife from bitching about it). And they died... Did that stop her? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 29 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Now that was a shite winter. We had 2-3" of snow on May 18th 2002, around Albany and Cap District. It was a SMH event as i had planted tomatoes and other sensitive veggies the day before (to stop my wife from bitching about it). And they died... I was a junior in high school and we had tents set up in a hayfield for after prom but the 4” or 5” of heavy wet snow destroyed all the tents! Not to mention destroying the hopes of 16 and 17yr old boys after prom.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 We had moved into our house in 2001 and planted at least a dozen lilacs. They had all survived the winter and leafed out beautifully. We woke that morning to about 4 inches of heavy wet oatmeal consistency snow. Lilacs took a beating. About half of them never full recovered. I think it was because they had just been transplanted the year before. I can still remember my wife outside in her work clothes trying to gently shake the snow off some of them. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Differences still present today especially with regard to extent of warm layer aloft and resulting ptype. Off the top, the GFS has trended to a very warm outlier even compared to its own ensembles from GEFS, both aloft and at the sfc. It seems to do this because it is farther northwest with its sfc low on Thursday morning. The NAM which was a cold outlier yesterday with its warm layer aloft is now much more like the majority of the models including the 00z ECMWF, Canadian-NH and WRF-ARW and NMM. That is how this forecast will head, which really won`t change the going forecast too much in terms of ptype late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Now though with a farther south sfc low, there is also trend for more precip to linger longer on Thursday from Niagara Frontier to the North Country. Could see some mixed precip over Niagara Frontier instead of just rain, mainly toward Niagara county as maxT aloft only gets above 0c there by late morning. And, for at least the far northern reaches of the North Country, it is feasible that primary ptype all day Thursday could remain snow, maybe mixing with sleet, as bulk of strongest warming aloft deflects more east than north as the day progresses. Adding to the dizzying model inconsistency for this system is the 12z ECMWF which now offers a sharp contrast to the warmer GFS and its previous runs as it trended colder over western NY, along Lake Ontario and certainly for the North Country. That ECMWF solution would probably keep ptype mainly snow in all those areas on Thursday, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle or light freezing rain if deep moisture strips away at times. Still have time to see if the colder trend holds or if it is just an aberation. Still likely will see a lull in more widespread precip Thursday afternoon, especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes as that is where sfc low and pocket of drier air aloft eventually slides across. On Thursday night, main coastal storm looks to miss us to the east as sfc low developing along the southeast coast quickly lifts along or just east of the Mid Atlantic states late Thursday night into Friday morning. However, the northern stream trough and right entrance region of departing jet across Quebec may support of swath of precip across much of the area. Ptype would have best chance of being snow over far western NY but could be a mix elsewhere (snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle perhaps) eventually changing to snow on Friday as deepening low lifting off the New England coast advects colder air across the lower Great Lakes. Based on good agreement from the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian-NH showing H85 temps lower than -10c and lift and deep moisture in upper trough axis moving through, it sure seems there could be a window where several inches of lake enhanced snow could occur for areas favored by nw winds into Friday afternoon. Deep moisture cuts out late so that would likely knock down intensity and coverage of the snow by evening. Overall we are still looking at the potential for headlines for what at this time looks like advisory level snow/wintry mix Wednesday night into Thursday and/or lake enhanced snow for areas favored by nw winds downwind of the lakes later Thursday night and especially on Friday. The morning commute on Thursday could be impacted by the snow and wintry mix over much of the region. No headlines yet as impact will not occur until late Wednesday night, but will continue to mention in the HWO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Thursdays event, as of now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Binghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Really close to something big on the icon.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I think we finally might get something boys! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Rare for ICON to spit out totals like this. Wish BUF had a little more confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 GFS slowly coming on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Man what a conundrum for me. Business dinner in NJ I can’t miss on Thursday night. Driving home Friday AM. Thinking the earlier I can leave the better I will be (about 4 hour ride under normal conditions back to Skaneateles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Man what a conundrum for me. Business dinner in NJ I can’t miss on Thursday night. Driving home Friday AM. Thinking the earlier I can leave the better I will be (about 4 hour ride under normal conditions back to Skaneateles). Most of your trip is south of any real action, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Most of your trip is south of any real action, no? It’s a good point. Could be a rough last hour and half or two coming up 81 and then 41A but since it’s been marginal for weeks I am hopeful I will be okay. I was just down in Parsippany and have no idea how people live where there are so many humans. I get some have to For work, family, etc. but it’s outrageous. Moving up here from there was such a life changing experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 hours ago, Geez150 said: I too wish we were to get a decade or two of those types of winters. The people who are old enough to remember those winters still talk about how winters should be. I have been saying this all winter as this is what our 4-5 bad year in a row and overall the last decade has been bad, this is our new normal... I feel like this damp barely cold enough for snow sometimes winters are what the southern mid West winters are like and now they are our winters too. Unfortunately I believe you have to bet warm until proven wrong. I am betting next winter is warm too...We truly need something big to happen in an equal to reaction of cold to break this warm trend and it would have to be in the way of cold like we have never seen. Thanks for sharing. Us hardcore winter-lovers are a rare breed! 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Thursdays event, as of now.. BUF trolling Freak's house? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 48 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Rare for ICON to spit out totals like this. Wish BUF had a little more confidence. I’m in heaven. Plattsburgh special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: I’m in heaven. Plattsburgh special I’ll be in Lake Placid! After all this, now I’m nervous about the northern cutoff. Lol. I think we look great.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: I’ll be in Lake Placid! After all this, now I’m nervous about the northern cutoff. Lol. I think we look great.? Yes we are in a really good spot at this point. Latest guidance even the GFS shows upwards of 10 inches from both combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Yes we are in a really good spot at this point. Latest guidance even the GFS shows upwards of 10 inches from both combined. Looks like epic skiing. Even 4-5 is great. Beats the driving rain that had been showing. Most of the action is inside 78 hrs- so one would hope the models have a lock on this at this point; this winter has ruined my confidence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Looks like epic skiing. Even 4-5 is great. Beats the driving rain that had been showing. Most of the action is inside 78 hrs- so one would hope the models have a lock on this at this point; this winter has ruined my confidence. I agree. We are traumatized. But like you said trends and time are on our side. For once we are trending the right way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Yes we are in a really good spot at this point. Latest guidance even the GFS shows upwards of 10 inches from both combined. I’ll be heading to my camp in old forge. Looks good but can’t get into the higher totals that far west and shadowed. I may have to drive through whatever ice condition develops along 87, that’s my main worry. Hopefully it’s all out by 18z or shortly after Friday so I can make my way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Went for a walk in the hood today. Despite getting nothing more than an inch at a time over the past 2.5 weeks, we have still kept some snowcover. Grass is now showing along south-facing areas, under areas with trees, and definitely within the town of Bville. I'd say we're still about 80% covered in my area with a couple inches of snow. I was still able to capture some wintry pictures, although it felt and sounded like Spring with the running water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS If I lived in BGM area, where my parents did, I'd be opening a vein about now. Likely hosed again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Early call NWS, valid 0z Sat.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Not a bad spot to see the Navy.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not a bad spot to see the Navy.. I was just visiting Navy Nuclear Power School. I told them they needed to step up their game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 KBGM going 2-3" here Wed/Thurs and 2-4" Friday/Sat. Sounds about right. Rain to snow on friday a.m. High temps mid 30s to 40s Fri & Sat in AFD. Temps after that in seasonal range next week, 30s and low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: KBGM going 2-3" here Wed/Thurs and 2-4" Friday/Sat. Sounds about right. Rain to snow on friday a.m. High temps mid 30s to 40s Fri & Sat in AFD. Temps after that in seasonal range next week, 30s and low 40s. The point and click for this area has temperatures in the mid 20s on Saturday while the 2M GFS forecast for Saturday has temperatures barely making it out of the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 13 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The point and click for this area has temperatures in the mid 20s on Saturday while the 2M GFS forecast for Saturday has temperatures barely making it out of the single digits. I was reading their AFD. Maybe it's old but certainly not inspiring. I've found their snowfall forecasts to be disturbingly accurate for us, as compared to KBUF. Generally, take the under as compared to NWP. Hopefully they're off this time, or old data. These look like 2 waves barely separated. So I can buy moderate snowfalls here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Another words, they have no clue where the baroclinic zones gonna be! Good forecast IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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