vortmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Another forum had a post from a met, I believe who hides identity but the forum knows who he is, just showed an excellent depiction on the 6z euro control and if it's right it's lining up for a big event Thursday night Friday for us. 12z will be a huge run for that model imo. We shall see. Here's to hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Gfs not bad for Friday and a little bit colder for Thursday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Rgem in it's LR pretty cold for Thursday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem in it's LR pretty cold for Thursday.. NWS has S Shore hitting 40 on Thu. Hoping this changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, vortmax said: NWS has S Shore hitting 40 on Thu. Hoping this changes. Nws pulls from previous models...if the gfs was warm at 00z that's what they're using. The afternoon AFD will be quite different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Obviously can't be trusted in the LR, or SR ..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 They’ve suddenly become my favorite models, lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Ukmet looks really good fwiw.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Ukmet looks really good fwiw.. Seems the UK has been the most consistent tracking these 2 systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 CMC is a beauty! 10-12 easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 If the 12z EC stays steady, all of the global models have a good hit for most of us through Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ukmet looks really good fwiw.. Any chance you could post a couple maps from it? That’s a monster!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Some before this (Thursday) and some after these frames.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Plenty cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Another forum had a post from a met, I believe who hides identity but the forum knows who he is, just showed an excellent depiction on the 6z euro control and if it's right it's lining up for a big event Thursday night Friday for us. 12z will be a huge run for that model imo. 12Z Euro biggest run of our lives? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 12Z Euro biggest run of our lives? It's got potential! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Wednesday night/Thursday looked pretty good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Actually so far it never flips to even mixed precipitation on the 90 corridor north...IF that verifies, then yes, biggest run of our lives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Warmest frame at the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Warmest frame at the surface.. I'm going to hate myself for this but...its starting to look good for a majority of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Between both events.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 That was a great euro run and it’s possible. Best look since November. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Between both events.. May even squeak out 12:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Wondering if 12z has enough evidence for a long (Wed PM-Fri PM) WWA from BUF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Wondering if 12z has enough evidence for WWAs from BUF. KBUF is hard headed...according to them we will be in the 40's with rain and a little backend snow which won't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: KBUF is hard headed...according to them we will be in the 40's with rain and a little backend snow which won't amount to much. Every global model is showing something worthy of headlines. They already mentioned headlines for the Wed-Thu event due to the commute impact Thu AM. 12z is suggesting colder temps...I'd say it's easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 Lake erie is warmest it's ever been for todays date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 You can get LES events in March quite often if you get arctic air. Just not so much off Erie as the lake is usually frozen. 2001-2002 was an example of a warm winter. 3 events in March. The mildest winter in 70 years. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2001-2002&event=D 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 This explains the entire winter. Our only hope is the -EPO, but expect lots of cutters and hits the next few weeks. Little to no arctic air. Gradient type pattern locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You can get LES events in March quite often if you get arctic air. Just not so much off Erie as the lake is usually frozen. 2001-2002 was an example of a warm winter. 3 events in March. The mildest winter in 70 years. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2001-2002&event=D Now that was a shite winter. We had 2-3" of snow on May 18th 2002, around Albany and Cap District. It was a SMH event as i had planted tomatoes and other sensitive veggies the day before (to stop my wife from bitching about it). And they died... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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