PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Early 2000’s were pretty cool too. Syracuse would routinely get big lake effect snow storms. It’s just the year. Like Freak keeps saying, there’s just nothin stopping the warmth. I think if we get a good second storm, Syracuse will be fine. The temps were crashing at hr 84 and we have a 980’s LP near Philly moving North. Everything I know says that’s a beauty for CNY and WNY. At least we have something to track. Paulie could get lucky and stay all snow for both, but he needs it colder. Everyone goes to mix on the first one (according to NAM). NAM at 84 is digging so Hard it’s in NYC while GFS same run is just a flatter cold front look progressively speeding into Maine. Maybe it’s on to something . It’s slows it down the whole flow . I’m staying up for 0z and certainly will be up for 6z. Dave thanks for rooting for snow up my way also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 If we could get the transfer from the Primary to the Secondary faster, we could do well from both systems. But, the trend this year has been for the Primary to be stubborn and the secondary to be lackluster. Thus, it's warmer and rainier for longer. I was just checking out the latest ICON and you can soooort of see something like that trying to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 So, I was just reliving the bad old days of the 2011/12 winter. I recorded 5.3" of snow for the entire months of February and March 2012. Now that was a bad winter. We may get that much snow by the end of this week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 31 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: If we could get the transfer from the Primary to the Secondary faster, we could do well from both systems. But, the trend this year has been for the Primary to be stubborn and the secondary to be lackluster. Thus, it's warmer and rainier for longer. I was just checking out the latest ICON and you can soooort of see something like that trying to occur. You are right. Oz GFS more amped so far but similar to 18z. Snow to ZR for Dacks with round 1. Round 2 is gonna be close. Prob rain to mix to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 My guess is perhaps 1 to 3 inches on the front end and then a dry slot/showers. Hoping for Secondary development that wallops us all. Noticing the GFS bringing that Convection off the Mid-Atlantic coast more NW with the past several runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just saw the GFS at 78 hours. I win a gold ribbon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 0Z GFS has Syracuse changing to snow at 6Z Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 GFS comes really close to a great run. Hopeful stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Off to bed. I am DETERMINED to get 8 hours of sleep tonight. This weather obsession gets in the way...lol Happy resting, all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 27 minutes ago, Syrmax said: So, I was just reliving the bad old days of the 2011/12 winter. I recorded 5.3" of snow for the entire months of February and March 2012. Now that was a bad winter. We may get that much snow by the end of this week. That was the worst winter in Buffalos record keeping history, including when they kept records along the lake shore pre 1940. That is a once in a century type year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Canadian doesn’t ever get a good second storm to develop. They almost become one and the trough leans forward. First half a tiny bit cooler., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I don't like that viewpoint at all. I wish I lived during the winters of the 60s and 70s. I too wish we were to get a decade or two of those types of winters. The people who are old enough to remember those winters still talk about how winters should be. I have been saying this all winter as this is what our 4-5 bad year in a row and overall the last decade has been bad, this is our new normal... I feel like this damp barely cold enough for snow sometimes winters are what the southern mid West winters are like and now they are our winters too. Unfortunately I believe you have to bet warm until proven wrong. I am betting next winter is warm too...We truly need something big to happen in an equal to reaction of cold to break this warm trend and it would have to be in the way of cold like we have never seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I like coming to this subforum to check out the snow pics and forecasts but instead of complaining about lack of snow, try living where I am at. I'm only at 3.3 in NYC. It has been an awful winter 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 00z Euro has a good thump before mix then a bit of rain then a good shot of wraparound/lake enhanced snows. That run shows about 6 to 10 from about southern Erie north to lake Ontario east to the Syracuse-tug area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Take with a tiny speck of salt, but, the local in house model (pretty sure it's the Euro run) never gets buffalo north and east to rain at all during the storm. It's only about 48 hours now so I'm beginning (I'm going to hate myself) to become a bit more confident we see appreciable snows Thursday through early Saturday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Wednesday night into Thursday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Nam went from rain to barely anything lol Gfs and NAM are warmer on Wednesday night with almost no snow, not sure I'm buying that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3k Nam was pretty warm with the initial push as well..Less than an inch south of Ontario and not much more to the north of there verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 3k Nam was pretty warm with the initial push as well..Less than an inch south of Ontario and not much more to the north of there verbatim.. I'm riding the Euro. Yes it's cliche but it has overall the best short range track record and once it's on a track it rarely deviates. I'll take it inside 48 hours for synoptic over any other model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Split up the European between both events . Obviously the lake Enhancement should be higher than 10/1.. Basically two 3"-5" systems with a little rain/mix in-between.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 45 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam went from rain to barely anything lol Gfs and NAM are warmer on Wednesday night with almost no snow, not sure I'm buying that.. 81hr NAM. Better chance looking into a crystal ball. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Split up the European between both events . Obviously the lake Enhancement should be higher than 10/1.. Basically two 3"-5" systems with a little rain/mix in-between.. I'd take 6 1/2 at kbuf which like you stated will actually be a bit higher due to better ratios later on Thursday night and Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I just want plowable snow...I built an entire new mount for my tractor this year and couldn't even use it yet because of the 12" of concrete we got back in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Little bit colder on the NAM.. Even though the clown maps have very little if any snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Looks like 6” with the first wave with another 2-4 with the second for Plattsburgh. I take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Looks like it could stay all snow/sleet in the furthest northern part of NYS. But now’s a good time to remind myself of the rule: add 30 miles or so to the warm push. It always beats the models by at least that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Looks like it could stay all snow/sleet in the furthest northern part of NYS. But now’s a good time to remind myself of the rule: add 30 miles or so to the warm push. It always beats the models by at least that. I think the boundary today is pretty much the boundary for Thursday. 50 near state line and low to mid 30's Niagara frontier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 ICON develops a nice little storm that remains pretty far east. Typical S shore action but most of the synoptic fun would remain well SE of most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: ICON develops a nice little storm that remains pretty far east. Typical S shore action but most of the synoptic fun would remain well SE of most of us. I’m not putting much weight into the ICON. It’s consistently been wrong at every forecast interval this whole storm if you play back the runs. The only thing the ICON is consistently good at is being wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: ICON develops a nice little storm that remains pretty far east. Typical S shore action but most of the synoptic fun would remain well SE of most of us. Another forum had a post from a met, I believe who hides identity but the forum knows who he is, just showed an excellent depiction on the 6z euro control and if it's right it's lining up for a big event Thursday night Friday for us. 12z will be a huge run for that model imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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