TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 The models have had the Thursday system here and there and everywhere. Now that they all show it cutting and barely giving anybody in the Northeast snow, they are locked in and won't budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The models have had the Thursday system here and there and everywhere. Now that they all show it cutting and barely giving anybody in the Northeast snow, they are locked in and won't budge. Truth. But come on, we all knew, right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 NAM running I will try to update everyone who won’t have a chance to access models tonight! Good evening all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2019-20' is the yr that if there is a chance of an event, chances are, it'll either change to rain or we'll taint and it should be no surprise at all to anyone. There is NO COLD AIR at all on our side of the globe and its not even on the other side, its right over the POLES hence the astronomically +++AO and its not changing anytime soon. Blah BLah BLah, -EPO, who cares as its Trumped by a -PNA and a super +NAO, RLMAO so I don't know why everyone is so surprised that its likely going to either rain or mix. Heck, it may even snow and accumulate, but its not like its gonna stay around for anyway, as we're right back into the upper 40's next week! IMO this season is Kaput, and if anyone thinks differently, then you can be one of the thousands that check every model run every 6hrs and watch how every event goes to absolute SHIT within 3-4 days of the event cause the models realize that WOW, there really isn't any cold air around, even to tap into, RLMAO, cause its sitting over Baffin Island and Lake Kara, lol! I'll be rooting for an extremely warm Fall next season, thats for damn sure! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 RLMAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 +18C at H925 @9PM over WV, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 NAM looks a bit more amped through 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Those are H925 temps? Obviously an inversion here as I’m sitting at 27 at the surface while it looks like about 35 at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: NAM looks a bit more amped through 45 You don’t want amped 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Amped=NW=rain all the way to Montreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Amped=NW=rain all the way to Montreal. I know . I been doing this for years. Like the rest of us. Haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Pretty amped at 57 and a tad west. Might be just enough for a big hit for many. We will see. Mixing already into cleavland and parts of southern Ontario. Ooff.. 500mb shows evidence of more digging as 540 goes into northern texas. Sharper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 NAM says let's get the 2nd low down over the DelMarVa and STILL let it rain up to Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Many will be happy with the NaM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: NAM says let's get the 2nd low down over the DelMarVa and STILL let it rain up to Syracuse. Are we looking at the same run? Big hit for many. 12 Km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Wow 12KM is so different from 32km it’s crazy. Let’s worry about wave 1 first. It’s a solid hit. Wave 2 is snow for many in the way the temps are orienting. I take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Maybe if you're in Buffalo, Rochester, and up to you. But Central NY has the warm fricken bubble spiking up just like it has all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Wow 12KM is so different from 32km it’s crazy Not sure what you're looking at. They both look like CRAP for Friday from Ithaca/Syracuse and eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Not sure what you're looking at. They both look like CRAP for Friday from Ithaca/Syracuse and eastward. I’m in plattsburgh. Northern Dacks. Looks fine . 4-6 inches with wave one looks like a good first call for my area. Wave 2 is still debatable as now the NAM amps this up to sub 985But you are right. Your area gets torched. Kitchen sink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 It's 84 hours out lol Might as well post hr 384 on the gfs.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 This was 6z this morning for Thursday.. 3 runs later 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: It's 84 hours out lol Might as well post hr 384 on the gfs.. I wouldn't bet against what it's showing. Lack of cold all over this winter, ridiculous SE Ridging, No Cold High Pressures to the north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: This was 6z this morning for Thursday.. Taint line moved north 400 miles in 18 hrs. These models have no clue 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 That doesn't help, wolfie. That just proves that Friday's Low will somehow end up over Buffalo...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I wouldn't bet against what it's showing. Lack of cold all over this winter, ridiculous SE Ridging, No Cold High Pressures to the north... It's not stopping WNY from seeing snow lol Actually the r/s line is in SW Oswego county, verbatim.. The snowiest model at 12z was the Canadian which was the warmest model to start, we almost definitely flip to snow next frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 In a normal winter, the track the NAM is showing would be pretty dang good for Upstate NY. Simply. no. cold. I mean we've had trouble even getting below freezing this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 The wheelhouse of the NAM is really within 48 hrs. Still a day away for the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 The 700’s are crashing here. Everyone goes back to snow. But for how long. It’s a decent look for 2nd half. First one is pretty crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's not stopping WNY from seeing snow lol Actually the r/s line is in SW Oswego county, verbatim.. The snowiest model at 12z was the Canadian which was the warmest model to start, we almost definitely flip to snow next frame.. I'm not so sure. The rain/snow line just lingers to our west for 6+ hours. I know it's just one run. At this point, it's look at every possible way it could go wrong. It's sort of sad. The past 5 winters have really given me a sour taste for enjoying winter weather. I LOVE cold and snow surprises...they are what got me into loving the weather. Now it seems like everything is a "surprise" in a warm-biased way. Basically, how will this event be ruined? I don't like that viewpoint at all. I wish I lived during the winters of the 60s and 70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I'm not so sure. The rain/snow line just lingers to our west for 6+ hours. I know it's just one run. At this point, it's look at every possible way it could go wrong. It's sort of sad. The past 5 winters have really given me a sour taste for enjoying winter weather. I LOVE cold and snow surprises...they are what got me into loving the weather. Now it seems like everything is a "surprise" in a warm-biased way. Basically, how will this event be ruined? I don't like that viewpoint at all. I wish I lived during the winters of the 60s and 70s. Early 2000’s were pretty cool too. Syracuse would routinely get big lake effect snow storms. It’s just the year. Like Freak keeps saying, there’s just nothin stopping the warmth. I think if we get a good second storm, Syracuse will be fine. The temps were crashing at hr 84 and we have a 980’s LP near Philly moving North. Everything I know says that’s a beauty for CNY and WNY. At least we have something to track. Paulie could get lucky and stay all snow for both, but he needs it colder. Everyone goes to mix on the first one (according to NAM). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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