rochesterdave Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Look at those HP’s!! How does this become a torch fest!?!? This winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Look at those HP’s!! How does this become a torch fest!?!? This winter.. Ancient Chinese secret Dave...i have no other answers... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Ancient Chinese secret Dave...i have no other answers... These seem to be some type of pacific warm high pressure systems. Ridging strong positive anamoly high pressure system. Weird. Anamaolous . No clue myself. Theory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I think it's just lack of blocking, lack of really cold air, and the progressive nature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: I think it's just lack of blocking, lack of really cold air, and the progressive nature. Yeah. They just get shunted. I forget who it was but one of the big brains in here poopoo’d the entire set up because the indices were crap. One of reasons was lack of any blocking. You’ll notice a few of the normal members haven’t even bothered with this storm. Smart! On the up side, the Friday thing still looks interesting- until it doesn’t. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 EURO actually looks not half bad. Drops 6-12 over both storms for a majority of the region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: EURO actually looks not half bad. Drops 6-12 over both storms for a majority of the region Clearly headline worthy for synoptic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: Clearly headline worthy for synoptic. Maybe we can get a trend back to a good storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: EURO actually looks not half bad. Drops 6-12 over both storms for a majority of the region 33 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: These seem to be some type of pacific warm high pressure systems. Ridging strong positive anamoly high pressure system. Weird. Anamaolous . No clue myself. Theory For these HPs to be 'cold' that have to be at least arctic/polar origin, and that is basically in the Hudson Bay at this time frame based on the TTB Euro maps. The cold is pretty bottled up until the storm passes then we can a transient cold shot for like 36 hours, then we don't see another arctic/polar type airmass until later next week. The euro shows just enough cold to tap for western NY/central NY for mostly snow. This is 4 days so in Euro we trust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 The devil is in the details as they say (whoever they are). We are going to see 2 systems and we’re going to see almost every form of precipitation there is. What remains to be seen is the timing of the changeovers and where the back edge of the heavier precipitation from the second system sets up. Anyways it should be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The devil is in the details as they say (whoever they are). We are going to see 2 systems and we’re going to see almost every form of precipitation there is. What remains to be seen is the timing of the changeovers and where the back edge of the heavier precipitation from the second system sets up. Anyways it should be interesting. Probably why models are struggling as many storms this year have been quite messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Euro has a sizable snowstorm day 8 lol Always trying to drag us back in..More snow approaching from the west day 10, everything inland so a tightrope we walk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro has a sizable snowstorm day 8 lol Always trying to drag us back in..More snow approaching from the west day 10, everything inland so a tightrope we walk lol Are you talking about the 966 mb low in the Gulf of Maine? It’s nothing more than a fantasy at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: I have to honest. That's a hell of a number considering a +8° temp anomaly and being so far behind in snowfall department (I'd imagine it's even greater in the hills as we've had very little lake effect to speak of save for a few nickle events). Not calling them fabricators but they must've spent a fortune on making the fake stuff the last 6 week's. They've received 109" and do much better with snowfall retention at 2000' feet, but yes they've made a lot of snow at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, vortmax said: I think it's just lack of blocking, lack of really cold air, and the progressive nature. Pacific has been controlling the lower 48 all winter, like a strong El Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 Analogs for weds-fri http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2020020312&map=thbCOOP72 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I actually really like how the NAM looks at 84 for northern Dacks. 4-6 down from first wave with more from round 2! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Through the day on Wednesday upper low that is currently bringing the wintry weather to the intermountain west today slides east from the central Plains to northern part of Mexico. As jet energy rounds the base of this trough, increasing southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico and associated low-level convergence helps develop low-level cyclogenesis lower Mississippi River valley. There are differences in placement of actual sfc low on Wednesday evening (possibly due to the convection that will be ongoing in that region), but there is better agreement in the development of H85 low centered on Arkansas. As the northern portion of the upper trough lifts across the middle CONUS, H85 low and associated warm air advection along with some sfc wave of low pressure will head toward western Ohio valley into the lower Great Lakes on nose of 40 kt low-level jet. The warm air advection along with height falls ahead of the upper trough and exit region forcing from 160+ kt jet will aid in spreading a widespread shield of precip over the lower Great Lakes that should last 3-6 hours with best chances late Wednesday night through mid morning on Thursday. Ptype is the main question. It does look like precip arrives before the stronger warm air advection does, so snow or maybe sleet is looking more probable to start, but based on latest suite of models and GEFS ensembles a trend to warmer temps aloft eventually shows up around or after 12z on Thursday. Forecasted qpf attm would support low-end advisory level snow/sleet amounts on leading side, but if ptype is more fzra then the expected qpf would certainly cause issues. Would see more qpf from this first wave of precip if the stronger moisture advection of pwats over 1 inch was aimed into our region instead of the Mid Atlantic as models and ensembles are very locked onto right now. Timing of any wintry precip would also heighten the impact as it would affect the Thursday morning commute time. Likely we will need headlines for this initial event late Wednesday night into Thursday. Now, once the precip moves through on Thursday morning, there is good agreement there will be some sort of break in steadier precip rest of Thursday, though could see a wintry mix hanging on over northern forecast area. Tough to time this break though, so the pops will stay likely for most all day Thursday. At least based on the pattern the break makes sense as we will be awaiting arrival of main upper level trough and strong upper jet moving east from the southern Plains. Then, unlike the late Wednesday Night into Thursday time frame, there are large disagreements on extent of precip on Thursday night and ptype is also in question. GFS and GEFS peg most of the qpf over our far eastern forecast area, mainly in form of snow, while the ECMWF and Canadian-NH have qpf over most of forecast area, but are either warmer with rain (Canadian-NH) or colder with snow (ECMWF). Models have been jumping around for this time frame for a while now in terms of extent and thermally, so best to stay tuned. Finally, on into Friday, it will eventually become colder, possibly enough for lake enhanced snow as main trough axis and colder air aloft crosses the northeast CONUS whle main sfc low heads toward Atlantic Canada. Not sure how quick the transition occurs and extent of deeper moisture present, but could see the need for headlines for the lake enhanced snow. This would especially be the case into the typical higher terrain areas downwind of the lakes favored by wnw-nw winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 Right back into the 40s next week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 NAM looks like it’s setting up for a nice storm on Friday. Who knows. The front end has a lot more Ptype issues even compared to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 while the ECMWF and Canadian-NH have qpf over most of forecast area, but are either warmer with rain (Canadian-NH) or colder with snow (ECMWF). Rooting for the EC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 NAM drives rain/ frz all the way to Montreal on first batch. Ya gotta watch the 700’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Maybe these maps are off lol Because the Canadian looked the best lol It starts us off with light rain but has the heaviest snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 You want the Euro in your court despite recent erratic behavior. its still the king if weaker. I say ukie + euro is the way to go at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Right back into the 40s next week lol And following that doesn't look much better. The SE ridge isn't budging in any long-range ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Maybe these maps are off lol Because the Canadian looked the best lol It starts us off with light rain but has the heaviest snow.. Depends on which model runs they based that disco on. There's little consistency run to run it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Depends on which model runs they based that disco on. There's little consistency run to run it seems. The only consistency is a slow drive towards worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 While we complain about our lack of winter weather these are high temperatures today across Europe. Many temperatures above 80 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 18z was ok I guess lol Nothing but a mix for Wednesday/Thursday.. About 4"-5" for the Friday system between synoptic and a little enhancement.. Maybe that part could Surprise, who knows lol Doubtful this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 lol..what a wretched winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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