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Upstate/Eastern New York


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5 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I think it's just lack of blocking, lack of really cold air, and the progressive nature.

Yeah. They just get shunted. I forget who it was but one of the big brains in here poopoo’d the entire set up because the indices were crap. One of reasons was lack of any blocking. You’ll notice a few of the normal members haven’t even bothered with this storm. Smart! On the up side, the Friday thing still looks interesting- until it doesn’t. Lol

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2 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

EURO actually looks not half bad. Drops 6-12 over both storms for a majority of the region

 

33 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

These seem to be some type of pacific warm high pressure systems. Ridging strong positive anamoly high pressure system.  Weird. Anamaolous . No clue myself. Theory

For these HPs to be 'cold' that have to be at least arctic/polar origin, and that is basically in the Hudson Bay at this time frame based on the TTB Euro maps. The cold is pretty bottled up until the storm passes then we can a transient cold shot for like 36 hours, then we don't see another arctic/polar type airmass until later next week.  The euro shows just enough cold to tap for western NY/central NY for mostly snow.  This is 4 days so in Euro we trust.    

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The devil is in the details as they say (whoever they are).  We are going to see 2 systems and we’re going to see almost every form of precipitation there is.  What remains to be seen is the timing of the changeovers and where the back edge of the heavier precipitation from the second system sets up.  Anyways it should be interesting.

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2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

The devil is in the details as they say (whoever they are).  We are going to see 2 systems and we’re going to see almost every form of precipitation there is.  What remains to be seen is the timing of the changeovers and where the back edge of the heavier precipitation from the second system sets up.  Anyways it should be interesting.

Probably why models are struggling as many storms this year have been quite messy.

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro has a sizable snowstorm day 8 lol Always trying to drag us back in..More snow approaching from the west day 10, everything inland so a tightrope we walk lol

Are you talking about the 966 mb low in the Gulf of Maine?  It’s nothing more than a fantasy at this range.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I have to honest. That's a hell of a number considering a +8° temp anomaly and being so far behind in snowfall department (I'd imagine it's even greater in the hills as we've had very little lake effect to speak of save for a few nickle events). Not calling them fabricators but they must've spent a fortune on making the fake stuff the last 6 week's.

They've received 109" and do much better with snowfall retention at 2000' feet, but yes they've made a lot of snow at night. 

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Through the day on Wednesday upper low that is currently bringing
the wintry weather to the intermountain west today slides east from
the central Plains to northern part of Mexico. As jet energy rounds
the base of this trough, increasing southerly flow off the Gulf of
Mexico and associated low-level convergence helps develop low-level
cyclogenesis lower Mississippi River valley. There are differences
in placement of actual sfc low on Wednesday evening (possibly due to
the convection that will be ongoing in that region), but there is
better agreement in the development of H85 low centered on Arkansas.

As the northern portion of the upper trough lifts across the middle
CONUS, H85 low and associated warm air advection along with some sfc
wave of low pressure will head toward western Ohio valley into the
lower Great Lakes on nose of 40 kt low-level jet. The warm air
advection along with height falls ahead of the upper trough and exit
region forcing from 160+ kt jet will aid in spreading a widespread
shield of precip over the lower Great Lakes that should last 3-6
hours with best chances late Wednesday night through mid morning on
Thursday. Ptype is the main question. It does look like precip
arrives before the stronger warm air advection does, so snow or
maybe sleet is looking more probable to start, but based on latest
suite of models and GEFS ensembles a trend to warmer temps aloft
eventually shows up around or after 12z on Thursday. Forecasted qpf
attm would support low-end advisory level snow/sleet amounts on
leading side, but if ptype is more fzra then the expected qpf would
certainly cause issues. Would see more qpf from this first wave of
precip if the stronger moisture advection of pwats over 1 inch was
aimed into our region instead of the Mid Atlantic as models and
ensembles are very locked onto right now. Timing of any wintry
precip would also heighten the impact as it would affect the
Thursday morning commute time. Likely we will need headlines for
this initial event late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Now, once the precip moves through on Thursday morning, there is
good agreement there will be some sort of break in steadier precip
rest of Thursday, though could see a wintry mix hanging on over
northern forecast area. Tough to time this break though, so the pops
will stay likely for most all day Thursday. At least based on the
pattern the break makes sense as we will be awaiting arrival of main
upper level trough and strong upper jet moving east from the
southern Plains. Then, unlike the late Wednesday Night into Thursday
time frame, there are large disagreements on extent of precip on
Thursday night and ptype is also in question. GFS and GEFS peg most
of the qpf over our far eastern forecast area, mainly in form of
snow, while the ECMWF and Canadian-NH have qpf over most of
forecast area, but are either warmer with rain (Canadian-NH) or
colder with snow (ECMWF). Models have been jumping around for this
time frame for a while now in terms of extent and thermally, so
best to stay tuned.

Finally, on into Friday, it will eventually become colder,
possibly enough for lake enhanced snow as main trough axis and
colder air aloft crosses the northeast CONUS whle main sfc low
heads toward Atlantic Canada. Not sure how quick the transition
occurs and extent of deeper moisture present, but could see the
need for headlines for the lake enhanced snow. This would
especially be the case into the typical higher terrain areas
downwind of the lakes favored by wnw-nw winds.
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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Maybe these maps are off lol Because the Canadian looked the best lol

It starts us off with light rain but has the heaviest snow..

Depends on which model runs they based that disco on.  There's little consistency run to run it seems.

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