wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Canadian with a pretty big jump east.. Precip is not as heavy as the gfs but that's not important at this juncture 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Gfs has a lot of inland storms which we are just gonna have to deal with lol Extremely active, counted like 7 synoptic systems and a lake effect event over the next 14days, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Well I'll be damned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Really good track for WNY.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 This would need to change though.. Surface in the 20s would spell some ice during the height of the system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Really good trends tonight Wolfie. Glad I’m not the only one geeking out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Euro has a nice front end thump with the 2nd wave on Wednesday night/Thursday before flipping to a wintry mix.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I think it is because we have to wait a week for the "big one" showing up. At least there are a few smaller waves to track before then. Just got in from my walk. Beautiful with a steady light snow falling. It is pixie dust, but can't be too picky at this point. A few tenths of an inch so far. The hood still has a solid 3 to 5 inch pack that can be walked on without falling through. All in all, a nice winter's evening walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Euro cuts the Friday one..974mb north of lake Erie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 Ride the Euro. Theme of the season. Also, no lake effect is coming. Whatever cold air is shown in the long range will be 40s by the time we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 It's close to being on its own now. But, if one shows the cut, we tread lightly. There have been many times this year where a model has been on its own by showing a cutter, and it's been correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Wow the 6Z GFS was a huge hit for the Dacks!!! Huge Friday hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 You aint kidding Paul!! Any more west and it starts to get dicey lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Buffalo still going with the European. While there is still a relatively broad envelope of solutions concerning a large storm system early in this time period... confidence is slowly increasing that winter weather headlines will eventually be needed for at least parts of our forecast area. In the wake of this system...there is high confidence that it will become notably colder with accumulating lake snows in the typical snowbelts. Since there is still a fair amount of spread in the various ensemble members...it would not be beneficial to get too deep into the details. It would be more helpful to briefly describe the two main scenarios that are being forecast. The first...which is the one that we will lean towards...is that the cyclogenesis over the Lower Mississippi Valley will yield a consolidating sfc low that will track up the western side of the Appalachians then over or just west of our forecast area. This seems more plausible than the other scenario given the trend of the deep longwave trough to become negatively tilted over the plains. The result would be a period of snow that would spread across our region Wednesday night and early Thursday. The snow would become mixed with sleet and rain before changing to just rain for a time during the day. The second scenario is that the system will track further to the east across the Deep South before making its way up the coastal side of the Appalachians. This would be a colder solution for our area with the resulting pcpn being nearly all snow...albeit it with lower general QPF. For what its worth...the majority of the GEFS ensembles favor this line of thinking. In both cases...cold air on the backside of the storm system will return/deepen over our forecast area during the course of Thursday night and especially on Friday. Any mixed pcpn will change to snow...with lake snows blossoming east of both lakes Friday and Friday night. Even if headlines were not required for the synoptic system leading into the lake snows...there is higher confidence that lake snows would necessitate headlines as we end the week and proceed into the weekend. Finally for Saturday...a deep cyclonic flow of sub arctic air (H85 temps minus teens) over the wide open lakes will maintain at least scattered lake driven snow showers with accumulating snows still found east of both lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 The 6z icon kicked towards the GFS solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Even the eps is SE of the European, more inline with the ukmet/icon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Yeah. We know how this likely turns out. If I were a media forecaster I’d be saying snow to rain. But I’m not. So I’ll hope for all snow! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 The entire evolution of this northern stream disturbance has changed in litterly the last 12hours... Goes to show you how bad the models really are.. NWS failed to recognize this and they still have the most snow on the tug which seems like a Longshot looking at the latest guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 27° with light snow, just a coating on the ground..At least as of right now the flakes are pretty fluffy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Bahaha..12Z NAM now has today's system going so far south that Syracuse, once again, doesn't even get an inch. All these waves keep hitting Western NY and then fizzle by the time they get here. Could this work out in our favor later in the week? So tired of this frickin snow shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Phil calls for an early spring which means dust off the snowblowers.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Sitting on pins and needles for the 12z. Almost in range. I need an intervention 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 That's what I like to see lol Icon is always missing hours, have no idea what the storm actually does lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 WTF! Lol. The most important ones of the run. Lol. But that end point can’t be good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Freezing line appears to stay just south of SYR. Of course, no 700 or 850 with ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Don't like what I see early on the gfs. I think we won't like this run. Will be glad to eat my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 You would be correct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 GFS same through 96. Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Buffalo changes over to heavy snow verbatim.. Actually transfers off the NE coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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