TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I have noticed a big time glitch in this area on the snow depth maps and models, I always assumed it was downsloping but nope it's a glitch lol Not sure why though.. I can't see my driveway yet let alone grass lol There are things called shovels, snowblowers, and plows to help with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I have a gravel driveway that's full of rocks and pebbles lol I had my snowblower purposely adjusted to leave a thin layer of snow on top lol And that thin layer of snow has yet to melt.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: I have a gravel driveway that's full of rocks and pebbles lol I had my snowblower purposely adjusted to leave a thin layer of snow on top lol GFS has now wobbled back south with the threats. I wouldn’t trust it at this point. Was so north last run now south with the overrunning storm 2 this run. Icon vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Lol yeah, gfs says what snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 It's basically a cold front.. Friday one can still be decent, we'll see soon enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 The 2nd wave was a cutter at 6z now it misses us to the South, not the worst solution in the world for us in W/C NY lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Gfs looked pretty good fwiw, with very little rain/mix..Most of this comes on Friday though which is an eternity away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Canadian is looking like last nights euro.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 "Coastal" or Cutter? I wonder which will be closer to reality. Hmmmmmmmmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 It’s hard to see a cut like the Canadian during this train of events. But it sure does feel right....Hope for weaker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Ukmet by Friday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Cutting will require some phasing of vorts early...don't see that happening in this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Powerful storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Powerful storm Man, just can't see that strong of a LP forming in this situation. My guess is we'll see 2 weaker waves along the frontal boundary, with the 3rd being the strongest (990ish). Where the boundary sits will be the big question. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 So Ukmet runs the storm straight north from there? IDK. I agree with vortmax, I’m happy to see a bomb this far SE, anything less than that SHOULD be further East. Gosh, this thing is nerve wracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Ukmet was traveling NE to that point..It was pretty warm though and weird with precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Euro was east of 0z but still sucked lol The system goes due north right over us.. The 2nd wave was east and a little snowier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 That's usually a decent look lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 The SE ridge is still causing some issues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Yup, I was just going to say that. It doesn't really matter where the boundary sets up ahead of time. It's the fact that the SE Ridge will NOT go away. If a Low starts to gain strength, it teams up with the ridge, and NORTH it goes. Like I said earlier, the only way we get SOME snow this winter is weak systems riding West to East that end with rain showers on the backside and a melt on the side. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 It just confirms what we already knew. Where would we have been if we didn’t have a few nighttime lows in the single numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That's usually a decent look lol No HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I had 7 nights were the Mercury dropped to 0.3°F or less in January and my average low was still 19° lol Average high finished around 35°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z GEFS look less amped on the ridge- I don’t know. Why am I doing this to myself. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 45 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I had 7 nights were the Mercury dropped to 0.3°F or less in January and my average low was still 19° lol Average high finished around 35°.. Syracuse didn’t have any nights below zero in January. There were 6 nights with lows in the single digits with the lowest being 4 on the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Looking at the ensembles from 12z, I’m liking the cooler, less amplified trend. With some luck we could end up on the good side of the boundary. That reduces the chance of a blockbuster but keeps us in the white as opposed to the green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 It's been quite amusing to me to read through the last few pages of this thread without posting, cause it surely shows how completely nuts we really are about Winter Weather, lol! I'm not being pessimistic but I just don't see anything materializing the next couple weeks and that brings us to the last Month of Winter and who really cares by then, lol. Yeah the EPO goes Negative for a time but having both a Super +PNA and a equally positive NAO pretty much negates the push of Cold Air out way or else we'd all be rejoicing right now even if one of the other indices were in the other direction, lol! What has been off all yr has been the timing of our beloved indices, lol! With that type of drop in the EPO I'd be rejoicing but when I see a PNA and a NAO the way they are I have to seriously laugh and say to myself, WTF is going on, lol, but unfortunately these kinds of Winters occur. Oh believe me, we'll get our week of Winter but it may in fact be, at the end of March, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I won't even talk about the Trop Pac because before December most of the forcing was West of the DL and all of a sudden it shifts almost 40 degrees East and so does our troughing! Look out in the North Atlantic, trough after trough after trough and it tells the story easily. our Rosby wave dispersion is off by several degrees and it has been since late November, when it all changed for the worse, and it hasn't gone back the other way so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 But the good news in all of this is that it can still snow, lol !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: But the good news in all of this is that it can still snow, lol !! At least in Rochester... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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