DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Do I stay up for the 0z? Or just wack myself in the nuts and call it good? It's looking good to me so far. I can't believe its holding serve still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Do I stay up for the 0z? Or just wack myself in the nuts and call it good? Depends on which ones are higher quality...the models... or your nuts? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Its the Thursday and Friday time frame that are looking messy. The "good" runs continually redevelop a surface low back to the south along the front. The bad runs create a deeper primary low that rolls right up over us. 0zGFS just went the latter of the two options. There are very subtle things dictating that surface low position in round 2. Will be a nailbiter for days I'm sure. Wednesday looks decent though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Nice run for the tug/dacks over the next 10 days, we all do well one way or another.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 So the Canadian looked pretty good, quite a bit east of 12z.. Not much going on with the first wave but the next 2 are all snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 European was terrible.. Nothing from the first wave then back to back cutters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Well good luck the rest of winter purgatory fellow weenies. After reading this morning's AFD and seeing possible 50' s for Thursday night I've thrown in the towel on this season. It's been a blast may us weenies find comfort in knowing the NE forum and the MA forum pushed each other off the cliff of despair long ago. We held as one. Peace! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 The only positive about a cutter here is potential LES... Would be a nice fallback lol The rain will quickly transition to snow showers...with lake effect snow then becoming possible on Friday as H85 temps of -10c or lower will prompt a lake response within a westerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Screwed either way with the Friday system according to guidance... NWS is going with the European and a track just west of us while the GFS fringes us with a track to far east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 It's funny every time a model run cuts we see lake effect on a Westerly flow, when the system goes east of us we see very little in the way of a lake response lol Kind of ironic.. Another example yesterdays 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Summary for this week: Slop...40s and sunshine...slop....40s and rain/slop.... Summary of Long Range: Cutter after cutter winter 19-20 carries on.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 We don't want any strengthening lows this winter. If we want to see snow, we need little junk waves to move through from West to East and deposit a coating to an inch or two. Any developing lows and it's game over. Simply extremely limited amount of cold to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Gefs FWIW Keep in mind they've had a huge cold bias this year as alluded to by BW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 We have nothing to stop these systems from cutting except well timed HP but we have nothing to hold those in place lol A 50/50 low can become a temporary-NAO but for the most part the coast is toast lol And were next.. With the -epo we should have a little more cold to work with though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Well good luck the rest of winter purgatory fellow weenies. After reading this morning's AFD and seeing possible 50' s for Thursday night I've thrown in the towel on this season. It's been a blast may us weenies find comfort in knowing the NE forum and the MA forum pushed each other off the cliff of despair long ago. We held as one. Peace! Pretty soon we are going to be the Mid-Atlantic Forum....with our winter discussions consisting of talk about frozen bird feeders last night and freezing fog causing water droplets to freeze to our windshields. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Weather prediction center 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 The closed Low on Friday looks like a blend of the gfs/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Weather prediction center Looks perfect to me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I don’t know why the morning freak out. Jeez. GFS 6z looks like it has for last 3 days. Euro has been bouncing around and WPC looks ideal. Yeah, it could all goto crap but right now it’s at least a coin toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 Some good analogs http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2020020100&map=thbCOOP72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Eps was farther SE then the op, little on the warm side verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Gefs mean a good deal NW of the OP but plenty of spread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I don’t know why the morning freak out. Jeez. GFS 6z looks like it has for last 3 days. Euro has been bouncing around and WPC looks ideal. Yeah, it could all goto crap but right now it’s at least a coin toss. And at least it’s something to watch with some potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Probably because of the constant disappointments...BUT...I will say this positive: It has looked like winter here with a solid snowpack for over 2 weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Probably because of the constant disappointments...BUT...I will say this positive: It has looked like winter here with a solid snowpack for over 2 weeks now. Same here although with the lack of any replenishment there are thin spots starting to show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, CNY_WX said: Same here although with the lack of any replenishment there are thin spots starting to show. Same. Looks like a different world down in the city of Syracuse. Not much snow there at all. I know we have had more than them. Is it pretty typical for the northern part of the county to hold onto snowpack much better than the city? I noticed this winter that the thaws seem to be more pronounced in the city. Other than it being a city, I am interested in whether the downsloping off the hills JUST south of the city has more of impact on them during thaws than up here. Would love to learn some more about the local climate from you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 45 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gefs mean a good deal NW of the OP but plenty of spread.. I count at least 2 that give us a storm. Lol. Honestly, that huge bunch in NW Ontario is worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 54 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Some good analogs http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2020020100&map=thbCOOP72 Actually, quite a lot of good ones. IDK. This winter has made us all so pessimistic. It’s like despite some good evidence, we all know just what is about to happen and it aint good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Wow the ICON looks beautiful. Tons of overrunning! Low pressure circus train riding the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I have noticed a big time glitch in this area on the snow depth maps and models, I always assumed it was downsloping but nope it's a glitch lol Not sure why though.. I can't see my driveway yet let alone grass lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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