cleetussnow Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 There really isn’t a strong case to be made for the next 6 days. One can argue the LR because models show promise, but La la land is really day 6. Or 5. It’s like the models don’t believe the fast flow is sustained enough of the time. Next winter will probably repeat if you figure the pacific will remain a furnace. I’m hedging that. The west will do alright and Alaska cold. Could be like this for awhile ala the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 It sure feels like the 80’s. It’s gonna be close for those of us in the Dacks over the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Well the midweek snow for the ‘dacks is waning but I’d rather have no snow than rain. So I guess I’ll take it for now. Impressive model uncertainty for less than 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1"-3" type of event on the euro for wave 1..Let's see what the rest of the run holds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: 1"-3" type of event on the euro for wave 1..Let's see what the rest of the run holds.. And the next one is cutting west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Next week is gonna be interesting. With our luck we end up with three messes. CN we get lucky just once? This progressive flow is annoying. Anything that has any potential is strong so it catches too soon and cuts. The weaker ones slide south. So it’s damned if you do and damned if you don’t. At this juncture, I’d take weak sliders. It’s tough to see a big one catching at the right time. It’s easy to see on the ensembles, the deeper LP’s are NW while the weaker ones are South. At least we have stuff to track! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Canadian has been remarkably stable with its westward depiction of next weeks storm. It would be an absolute disaster for my ski trip (just like last year). You simply can’t plan a ski trip in the east anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 The euro did have snow for the last wave but the brunt of precip misses us East.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 19 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Next week is gonna be interesting. With our luck we end up with three messes. CN we get lucky just once? This progressive flow is annoying. Anything that has any potential is strong so it catches too soon and cuts. The weaker ones slide south. So it’s damned if you do and damned if you don’t. At this juncture, I’d take weak sliders. It’s tough to see a big one catching at the right time. It’s easy to see on the ensembles, the deeper LP’s are NW while the weaker ones are South. At least we have stuff to track! if those 6 days threats were our oasis then we would die of thirst. Mirages or minimal qpf to quench thirst. Just then another oasis appears 7 days off, so we crawl and claw on our bedraggled bellies toward it, parched and desperate, but that's all we can do! track. We always have hope and hope never lets us down. here's to winter 2022. i might just turtle up and conserve energy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 32 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Canadian has been remarkably stable with its westward depiction of next weeks storm. It would be an absolute disaster for my ski trip (just like last year). You simply can’t plan a ski trip in the east anymore. I feel for you man. Next weekend is either going to be a massive snowstorm or a complete washout. That’s some risky shit right there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 29 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I feel for you man. Next weekend is either going to be a massive snowstorm or a complete washout. That’s some risky shit right there Are we really believing in a 979 LP?? Do the ULs support such development of the 2nd (of 3) waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Every single day after work I check this page and models hoping for some good news....and it is the SAME CRAP over and over again. My gosh, it's like Groundhog's Day this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Lol..Even the "system" for Sunday went from a couple inches on the NAM at 12Z to UMMMM, where did it go??? on the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Well, this would be about as good as it gets. I feel like I’m holding my breath. I wish we didn’t have a track record of 1/10.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Jesus, 18z GFS run just trolled us the hardest it has all winter. Days and days of snow for the ROC and 'dacks. I'm not taking the bait yet, but god damn what a run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Enjoy it now because I'll be posting something completely different in 6hrs lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Enjoy it now because I'll be posting something completely different in 6hr lol 4' for where I'll be hiking in 3 weeks. =0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 It's definitely plausible, there is going to be a really sharp gradient somewhere from Michigan to the NE. Where ever that sets-up will be the jackpot zone if we can get cold enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 An inverted surface trough and its associated frontal boundary appears to stall over our area for the majority of this period before becoming a closed low and tracking northeast by the tail end. These patterns will result in unsettled weather throughout the period. The latest model guidances are still variable with the placement of the frontal boundary and the number of shortwave disturbances that will ride the boundary. Thus, there is quite a bit of uncertainty to whether we`ll experience a few rounds of rain, mixed precipitation or snow. However, near the end of this period the surface trough looks to form into a closed low, but the model guidances are still in disagreement as to where this low will track. Again causing uncertainty to precipitation type. We will have to keep an eye on this period as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 So, even the best of these ensembles would translate to like a few inches of slop at lower elevation. Bleh. We need cold and LES somehow for once this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Leelee said: So, even the best of these ensembles would translate to like a few inches of slop at lower elevation. Bleh. We need cold and LES somehow for once this year. We must be looking at different things. That was one of the best runs all winter for a lot of this forum. Not that it will happen. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, Leelee said: So, even the best of these ensembles would translate to like a few inches of slop at lower elevation. Bleh. We need cold and LES somehow for once this year. If those don't look good to you I don't know what would make you happy. The best ensembles show 12-18 inches at lower elevations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 47 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Enjoy it now because I'll be posting something completely different in 6hrs lol Yes please!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 She is talking about the heaviest being over the higher elevations on the ensembles, which it is.. 6"-8' on a mean isn't necessarily great when it includes 3 systems lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: She is talking about the heaviest being over the higher elevations on the ensembles, which it is.. 6"-8' on a mean isn't necessarily great when it includes 3 systems lol I understand that, but the first time we have something to look forward to and here come the debbie downers to poop on it. Good grief, let us have one 6 hour period with some hope. lolz 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 For this weekend.. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: For this weekend.. FWIW Highmarket is the big winner again...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Mean is pretty far west but members are all over the place, timing also an issue as expected.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Do I stay up for the 0z? Or just wack myself in the nuts and call it good? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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