wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Wpc copy and paste the ensembles? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Wpc copy and paste the ensembles? Lol Isn't that the same look the WPC showed yesterday??? They are by far the furthest southeast with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Some decent ones in there, but a bunch of not so good ones as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Some decent ones in there, but a bunch of not so good ones as well.. I think most of our forum would be happy with 10 and love 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Tale of 2 halves this month in terms of Temps.. First half splits 39/25 2nd half (so far) 31/14 Technically the second half is still above average but it was much improved, granted we still didn't see much snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Late Tuesday though as the shortwave and associated sfc low race across the region, there is loose agreement that a quick change back to snow could be in the offing from west to east. System is high tailing it to the east by that time thanks for very strong upper jet running out ahead of the longwave trough, but could be just enough overlap of the cooling and lingering qpf to generate minor snow accums as the cold air sweeps across the region. Does not look like even moderate snow accums at this time though given the progressive nature of the system. And finally, even with decent cold air moving in behind the system for the rest of Wednesday (well H85 temps of -15c on the GFS are at least decent compared to what we have seen recently), any lake response looks to be muted due to significant dry air advection as high pressure builds in quickly. Those details could certainly change especially if the system comes in stronger in future model runs, but that is how it is looking at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Some decent ones in there, but a bunch of not so good ones as well.. Lots of nice hits for Northern NY. Guess it’s going to depend exactly where that gradient pattern sets up. The way guidance has been this year, I wouldn’t trust any runs until 1-2 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 51 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think most of our forum would be happy with 10 and love 14 I would take 15. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 If we stuck with Ensembles this winter, like the GEFS within a week, I would have 150 inches of snow on the season. The models have sucked, the pattern has sucked, the meteorologists have sucked, this winter has sucked. Everybody gets a suck suck from the Lollipop Garden! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Well even the colder gfs has like 2" in Syracuse, mostly a mix, so that area is already toast , farther North and west who knows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 You know what’s more annoying than those of us incessantly complaining about this winter? Those of you who chastise the complainers. I mean really. It’s ok to vent. This winter’s been a hot turd. Most of you end up complaining one or two runs later once you realize the complaints were in fact correct and the thing is west.....Again! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 36 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: If we stuck with Ensembles this winter, like the GEFS within a week, I would have 150 inches of snow on the season. The models have sucked, the pattern has sucked, the meteorologists have sucked, this winter has sucked. Everybody gets a suck suck from the Lollipop Garden! The models and even the ensembles have been putrid outside of 4-5 days. Last weeks storm went 250 miles further NW in the last 72 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 44 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: I would take 15. Haha I'm actually starting to cheer for Adirondack snow. I'll be doing a few high peaks Feb 21-23rd and want some deep snow there, just ordered my crampons yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 GEFS with a really bad cold bias all winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Cohen throwing in the towel. About time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Cohen throwing in the towel. About time. Did that idiot really say “all intensive purposes”. Good grief. What a moron. It’s all intents and purposes. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 separate waves on the gfs, pretty much all find a way to screw us, verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just no cold air anywhere. Get the cold air and we get above average snowfall in Upstate 95% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 48 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 3 separate waves on the gfs, pretty much all find a way to screw us, verbatim.. I mean it doesn't screw WNY...yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Did that idiot really say “all intensive purposes”. Good grief. What a moron. It’s all intents and purposes. I used to be more snarky about spelling but with the advent of spelling being more difficult on mobile devices, and the dreaded autospell, I tend to give people a bit of slack. Its easy to miss mistakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS Many of those look good for us! CONGRATS, Thunder Bay, Ontario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: 3 separate waves on the gfs, pretty much all find a way to screw us, verbatim.. Reminds me of Feb. 2018. Multiple waves back to back but nothing extraordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Euro coming in interesting. Can we get a rally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: I used to be more snarky about spelling but with the advent of spelling being more difficult on mobile devices, and the dreaded autospell, I tend to give people a bit of slack. Its easy to miss mistakes. That isnt a typo, that isnt a spelling mistake. That is a complete misunderstanding of a saying. Intensive purposes doesn't make any sense at all. What is an intensive purpose, lolz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Euro is pretty much mainly a mixed Precipitation event, next wave misses us to the east, neither event much to write home about.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Euro is pretty much mainly mixed Precipitation, next wave misses us to the east, neither event much to write home about.. It's a decent event for the Dacks. Foot or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 True, but thats through hr 240 which includes 3 events lol Euro had a snowstorm with wave 3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Can you believe this whole pattern really started with the Thanksgiving weekend system? That was the writing on the wall, right there. Winter came in November. Winter left in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Can you believe this whole pattern really started with the Thanksgiving weekend system? That was the writing on the wall, right there. Winter came in November. Winter left in November. Every year a pattern gets formed. Those tracks are laid and don’t think they get moved. Some exceptions but for the most part you get what you had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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