cny rider Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Nws extended summarizes the winter: 40s, chance of rain/snow showers The ceiling grade for this winter is now a C-. That's the upside potential with a big turnaround in February and March that we don't even see on the horizon. The current grade is D. F is not out of the question. If this winter was a kid taking my class I'd advise them to withdraw or audit the class, because the likelihood of an F is extremely high. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Nws extended summarizes the winter: 40s, chance of rain/snow showers The extended forecast all hinges on next week's system.. 6z Gfs for example has 20s for high because the system goes south of us. The European tries lol Would be like upper 30s/low40s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: The extended forecast all hinges on next week's system.. 6z Gfs for example has 20s for high because the system goes south of us. The European tries lol Would be like upper 30s/low40s.. I think the GFS is on to something...it has been advertising on the ensembles the PV over Hudson Bay arou ND that timeframe. IF that is right then the storm track will be shunted south as the GFS is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Here is the Canadian for that system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 The most frustrating part of this winter is that it constantly trolled us. “Just around the corner! Two weeks away!” For now, I’ve given up. Ya never know but I don’t see hopeful trends. I’d bet my entire net worth on the Tues-Thur thing going west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 This is all I'm hearing. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal! You stole fizzy lifting drinks. You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and sterilized, so you get *NOTHING*! You lose! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 36 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal! You stole fizzy lifting drinks. You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and sterilized, so you get *NOTHING*! You lose! You're a crook! A thief and a swindler! How could you do this to all of us weenies all winter long!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 But Daddy I don’t want to wait until February for the polar vortex! I want it now! Ok Wonka. How much for one of those lake effect storms? Oh... There not for sale... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: But Daddy I don’t want to wait until February for the polar vortex! I want it now! Ok Wonka. How much for one of those lake effect storms? Oh... There not for sale... Until this year I didn't realize we need the polar vortex to split to get any lake effect snow. Or is this year just an anomaly of the "one eyed pig" in Alaska similar to 2011-12? In a normal winter I feel like we should get cold enough to get lake effect snow without help from the PV. But this year that has been impossible. Worst lake effect year of all time including 2011-2012 and long range doesn't show enough cold air in the next 2 weeks for anything either. 2011-2012 had 8 LES events. I think we are at 2 this year? 1997-98 had 4 LES events, that is the least since 1994. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1997-1998&event=D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just a couple ops runs...but I'm liking the look of the ridge poking up to Alaska around the end of next week on the Canadian and GFS. Now THAT would be a pattern change...all these other modeled snow threats and shifts to cold IMO have been doomed as long as the polar vortex has been raging between Alaska and Greenland. If that modeled ridging holds into early next week, I'm keeping my snowshoes in my truck. If not, they're getting tossed into the balmy waters of Lake Erie and replaced with my golf clubs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Well the GFS held serve on the overunning/open wave storm next Wednesday, but to be honest, being in the sweet spot 7 days out is the worst case scenario. Nothing ever holds that long. I've given up on getting a storm for my trip, now I just want it to stay below freezing/no rain. I can deal with the lack of real snow. Just let me have some normal relatively ice free groomers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 We've had full coverage for last 4-5 days here. At least it feels like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 60 on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Well no one is forecasting that and honestly I'm surprised how much different GFS and euro are in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Well the GFS held serve on the overunning/open wave storm next Wednesday, but to be honest, being in the sweet spot 7 days out is the worst case scenario. Nothing ever holds that long. I've given up on getting a storm for my trip, now I just want it to stay below freezing/no rain. I can deal with the lack of real snow. Just let me have some normal relatively ice free groomers. Euro looks to be a hit too next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 60 on Monday? In a normal winter, a ridge like that only happens before a storm cuts through Superior. But this winter defies all odds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro looks to be a hit too next week. Yep which puts that pic above in serious peril Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Yep which puts that pic above in serious peril Well the "storm" hits Tues-Thurs. It's a weak overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 The long range all winter long but never coming true 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 30 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yep which puts that pic above in serious peril It's hard to tell but the warm-up is ahead of a CF, u can see the temps crashing on the backside right as precip is moving in..But the euro warms us up again after several inches of snow as the surface low cuts to far west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Wpc D7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 That's the look we need!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Wpc D7 That’s a different look at least. The HP won’t be able to outrun it. Now we got to hope the LP isn’t early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 EPS GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 Gradient right over our forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Being on the north side of a good over over-running event is always fun in the winter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 18z gfs is west. Lp goes right over us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Not that it matters 6 days out.. 18z vs 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 As seen on the 12z gfs, potential is there for a decent event if we can time it right, which has been a bitch to do this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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