BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Looking at the 6z gfs, we miss about 5 storms to the SE, I guess that's better than seeing cutter after cutter lol Some weak northern stream disturbances and intermittent LES save give us at least something over the next 2 weeks, verbatim..Gfs is almost to active to get any sustained lake effect going.. Cutters straight to supression, no in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 What a terrible winter for everyone I live in nyc and I only have 3.3 inches. Alot of fantasy storms which didnt pan out and the cold air hasnt been existence. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cutters straight to supression, no in between. I know many are not fans of Judah Cohen and I find some if his findings a stretch, however he just tweeted about 50 minutes ago that the GEFS is showing the PV over Hudson Bay in 2 weeks with the PV disturbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 35 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I know many are not fans of Judah Cohen and I find some if his findings a stretch, however he just tweeted about 50 minutes ago that the GEFS is showing the PV over Hudson Bay in 2 weeks with the PV disturbed. It’s like a two day disruption. Blink and u miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Next two weeks of weather looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Next two weeks of weather looks awful. GFS says go big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Next two weeks of weather looks awful. I'll try to be an optimistic here. At face value, it looks ugly, but there is definitely indications of a much more defined trough in the east going forward. A lot of storm are just missing South of us which is way better than cutting through the lakes. At least there is a chance for these to trend in a direction to bring us snow. Also, that strong cutter foretasted for earlier next week has really evolved over the last 24 horus, it now develops a strong wave south of us that is almost a Miller B type hit for us. A few more moves in the direction and a super warm torch turns into a sizeable snow storm. We went from this at noon yesterday To this today at noon. At least trending the right way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS says go big Looks like a gradient type pattern in the LR, just need to be on the northern side lol Multiple impulses ride through the flow, some good, some not so good..If the gfs has a clue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like a gradient type pattern in the LR, just need to be on the northern side lol Multiple impulses ride through the flow, some good, some not so good..If the gfs has a clue.. The GFS also develops a -EPO around this timeframe, hence the strong gradient storm. The PV is also parked up near Hudson Bay. I'll take that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 10 days of on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I'll try to be an optimistic here. At face value, it looks ugly, but there is definitely indications of a much more defined trough in the east going forward. A lot of storm are just missing South of us which is way better than cutting through the lakes. At least there is a chance for these to trend in a direction to bring us snow. Also, that strong cutter foretasted for earlier next week has really evolved over the last 24 horus, it now develops a strong wave south of us that is almost a Miller B type hit for us. A few more moves in the direction and a super warm torch turns into a sizeable snow storm. We went from this at noon yesterday To this today at noon. At least trending the right way. Yeah, European also had a sizable shift SE with the day 7 system, be interesting to see which way this one trends in the coming days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 Thats a nice look for a battlezone around us for synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 For a lower Rez model, ukmet shows lake effect pretty good, not that I believe it necessarily lol Kicks off some LES with the northern stream energy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Gfs with a little light-moderate snow with the northern stream as well.. While the track of the possible Nor`easter looks to not directly impact our region, its track to the northeast will influence how the model guidances handle the passage of a shortwave disturbance impacting our region. This shortwave trough axis appears to move through the Upper Great Lakes Friday night, crossing NYS Saturday evening into Sunday. As the shortwave passes, chances of rain and snow showers increase. Most of the precipitation falling through out this period should be snow, however there are chances for some mixed/rain showers in the lower terrain. The precipitation should switch over to all fall as snow during the overnight hours on Saturday into Sunday and remain as snow throughout the day on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Looks like a wave riding a CF, looks better than in did yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Blizzard of 77 anniversary. Ugh sucks having to see all these pictures of a real winter! Interesting comparison one of the stations posted comparing this season to that season. These stats are up to the day BEFORE the blizzard started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 There was a day with 10" snowpack this year? I guess the Veteran's Day event barely got there at the Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Been so busy today, just got the chance to check out the 12Z runs. Wow, do they look yawnilicious for the next two weeks. 2 more wasted weeks closer to Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 12z was meh. Tonight’s Oz may not be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, cleetussnow said: 12z was meh. Tonight’s Oz may not be It's going to show "big changes" in 2 weeks, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's going to show "big changes" in 2 weeks, right? I’m pretty sick of that song and dance but I keep coming back. Seriously the 18z eps just cooked up a miller b with inland runners in the mix. Might be a head fake but that’s the reason I come in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like a wave riding a CF, looks better than in did yesterday.. Yeah, I shouldn’t have called this a miller b earlier. Just a really nice wave and over running. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Pretty interesting special the History Channel did like 20 years ago on the Blizzard of 77. Few slower stories mixed in but lot of really nice original video from back then. https://youtu.be/l-F8OeZOEU0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Thats an awesome storm track for sure so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 00z GFS was almost all snow the entire run...06 is beginning the same...could this be the trend from yesterday as Wolfie and BW pointed out actually coming to fruition??? Nahhh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 And then the Euro was 180° different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Nws extended summarizes the winter: 40s, chance of rain/snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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