February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 0.5" new on all. SB ~344P. Most of the snowfall since 515P.  32.7F after a high of 40.3F (0.2F less than yesterday. Snowflakes of moderate size.  WET snowfall. It's nice again here after we completely melted this mornings 0.4" around 1030A.  Enjoy the game.  Walt

[JerseyWx]

Wet snow here for the last 1.5 hours or so.  Sticking to colder surfaces but not enough to measure.

[tmagan]

On 1/31/2020 at 5:14 PM, donsutherland1 said:

For those who are interested, the February and all-time AO+ record is +5.911, which was set on February 26, 1990.

A bit ironic, that day Central Park had a low temperature of nine degrees and that was just after a blowtorch January and most of February which introduced the modern era of blowtorch winters around here.

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ now 0.8" solid with roads here wet, slight slush. snowing fairly large flakes. wet snow.  Total with the morning 0.4 included is 1.2" today.  Have seen a report near Dingmans in Pike County PA of 2".

 

[Allsnow]

Higher elevation areas of northern Nj doing well with this event. Euro was showing this potential. Definitely a surprise for some. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Higher elevation areas of northern Nj doing well with this event. Euro was showing this potential. Definitely a surprise for some. 

It’s snowing hard by mountain creek. Nice 2-4 looks like a sure bet up there.

[Allsnow]

Why wouldn’t I be in good banding for a marginal airmass system during early February lol 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It’s snowing hard by mountain creek. Nice 2-4 looks like a sure bet up there.

Areas in the Poconos are doing well also. The system is definitely more robust then forecasted.

[NYCweatherNOW]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Why wouldn’t I be in good banding for a marginal airmass system during early February lol 

Hey next week looks interesting man. Let’s hope for a flatter East jog and we can get back to back two events. Looks marginal though but it can happen

 

lets go 49ers

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 1.1" of wet snow at 830P. Continues to snow. This may be my last report til 430A.  32.7F  Roads wet otherwise everything covered. 

[Cfa]

Drove through a bit of mixing on I-95 NE of Philly but otherwise all misty rain from about I-195 all the way to Suffolk.

[sussexcountyobs]

Just measured 2" new accumulation. Steady snow continues.  31.7°

[donsutherland1]

Groundhog Day was milder than normal across the region. However, even warmer temperatures prevailed in an area running from the Plains States to the Great Lakes region where numerous record high temperatures were toppled.

Daily records included:

Chicago: 52° (old record: 51°, 1992); Colorado Springs: 73° (old record: 66°, 1934); Denver: 74° (tied record set in 1934); Goodland, KS: 79° (old record: 72°, 1934); Indianapolis: 63° (old record: 61°, 2016); Madison: 51° (old record: 47°, 1987); Milwaukee: 56° (old record: 49°, 1992); Peoria: 61° (old record: 54°, 1920); St. Louis: 70° (old record: 66°, 2016); and, Wichita: 76° (old record: 73°, 1924).

Kansas City had a high temperature of 65°, which missed the daily record of 69°, which was set in 1924 and tied in 1992. However, Kansas City was able to settle for a victory in Super Bowl LIV.

Even milder air will push into the region tomorrow. Temperatures could peak well into the 50s during the first half of the work week in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. As a result, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later.

Somewhat colder air could return late in the first week of February or just afterward. However, Arctic air is unlikely. In addition, no significant snowfalls (6" or above) are likely through at least the first week of February for Washington, DC to New York City and the surrounding region.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, a storm will likely bring a moderate or significant snowfall to parts of northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England late this week. The major cities from Washington to New York City will likely see no more than a light accumulation from that storm. Another system could follow during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -13.59 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.857.

The guidance suggests that the AO could spend an extended period at or above +3.000 beginning during the second week of the month. Since 1950, none of the 36 days during which the AO was +3.000 or above saw daily snowfall of 1" or more in New York City or Philadelphia. During the overall February 5-20, 1950-2019 period, daily snowfall of 1" or more occurred on 8% days in New York City and 7% of days in Philadelphia. The biggest snowstorm during that timeframe when the AO was +3.000 or above was February 9-10, 1982. Boston picked up 4.0" snow; New York City received 0.3" snow; and, Philadelphia saw 0.6" snow.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 10. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February.

On February 1, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.609 (RMM). The January 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.818.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

32.2° with light snow.

0.5 inches so far this evening, 0.2 inches last night bringing the total today to 0.7 inches and the seasonal to 19.5

Now we're rolling.

I'm sure I'm showing my age but I really preferred The Stones, Mcartney, The Who, and Tom Petty halftime shows over the performers they've had the last several years. No complaints about the butt shaking though. Much better optical than Adam Levine stripping on stage last year.

[ForestHillWx]

1.5" here. Roads were covered. 

[JerseyWx]

25 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

1.5" here. Roads were covered. 

That's impressive considering how things have gone thus far.  Between this morning and tonight I measured nada.  The colder surfaces, including grass, had a very light coating of saturated wet snow that I did not even bother to measure.

Did you see something that I didn't @rgwp96?  Seems like places south and west of us got under better banding.

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 1.6" final. Settling occurred so this may be conservative. Roads generally wet and some pavements have quite a bit of melting.  2.0 for the day. 18.7 for the season. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.,  or 9degs. AN.

40* here at 6am.   39* at 6:25am.       49* by Noon.         50* by 1pm.         55* by 3pm, but I am nice and cool, I have a sea breeze  LOL.     56* by 3:30pm.      57* at 4pm.

The next 17 days on the 06Z GFS are averaging 36.5degs., or about 2degs. AN.        12Z sucks too, cooks up 6 more 50-Degree Days and maybe 1 BN at end of run (Feb. 17,18), which should disappear presently---then more toasties incoming.

EURO is 13" on the 9th.; GFS is 8" total on 3 different dates---7th., 13th., 17th.; CMC is 3" on the 10th.        12Z EURO gets lost on way to the big storm---NO SNOW anymore.

Only way to stop this silliness is to have these models take the FIFTH and refuse to produce any output.

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning everyone,

Pretty windy at our house in Wantage NJ the past two hours with gusts ~25MPH. 

Still not much to write about for NYC-LI.  Action next two weeks focused I84 corridor northward and mostly as ice episodes. Adding 3 graphics for ensemble model background as of 09z/3.  Didn't start a specific topic for the 6th-7th since I've gotten the sense that if NYC is not involved in accumulative snow it's not worth a specific event topic.  So... have remained within this thread. 

Left graphic: 

NWS ensemble chance of 1" of snow Wednesday into early Thursday. Note the 80% probability from the legend (orange) into ne PA with 70% nw CT to extreme northwest Sussex County NJ. The non-winter continues south of PA down to NC. Issue time ~9z/3

Center graphic: NWS ensemble chance of glaze Wednesday, and especially Thursday morning prior to daybreak. These probabilities may?? be too low by 30-40%. You can see the axis is favoring PA/nw NJ. Issue time ~9z/3

Right graphic: NWS ensemble chance of 3+ inches of snow Thursday into early Friday (7A Thursday-7A Friday). The blue 50% or greater is basically just north of I90. I do want to say though that some sort of icing is going to occur in most of the green area Thursday morning down to I78, even though it wont snow much, if at all there.   This ensemble was derived mostly from 18z/2 guidance since it was issue around 05z/3 prior to the arrival of 00z/3 ensemble guidance. 

Wind: The ECMWF continues to forecast a brief period of gusty winds between 50-65 MPH in the I95 corridor from BOS-DC Friday morning. Northward extent right now is uncertain.  1104z/3

[bluewave]

Another warm day on tap. NYC is 42 degrees at 7am and already ahead of the average high of 39 degrees. 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another warm day on tap. NYC is 42 degrees at 7am and already ahead of the average high of 39 degrees. 
 

Met winter is most definitely dead. The AO could hit a new record soon, an absurd +6 or better. 

NAO will also be rising and PNA will tank. Only good news is the EPO will drop but that tends to favor the west first. 

MJO isn't helpful whatsoever. So given all that I think models will trend stronger with the SE ridging and push the gradient further north. This is a God awful winter pattern and it would be a miracle for it to suddenly reverse heading into March. 

[bluewave]

At least we weren’t as cloudy as the Midwest and Great Lakes have been.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least we weren’t as cloudy as the Midwest and Great Lakes have been.

 

Simple, complete lack of arctic high pressure. Add more moisture in the atmosphere and it’s continuously cloudy. 

[PB-99]

The 7/8 time frame  threat was brought up in here last week, you want to see this S of us initially as these have a habit of coming N in this pattern.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Met winter is most definitely dead. The AO could hit a new record soon, an absurd +6 or better. 

NAO will also be rising and PNA will tank. Only good news is the EPO will drop but that tends to favor the west first. 

MJO isn't helpful whatsoever. So given all that I think models will trend stronger with the SE ridging and push the gradient further north. This is a God awful winter pattern and it would be a miracle for it to suddenly reverse heading into March. 

I don’t think there is going to be some miracle March flip this time. We are going into a record positive NAM (++AO, ++NAO), it should peak somewhere around 2/10 - 2/12, the PNA is also going to really tank at the same time, ensuring the rest of February is almost certainly cooked. I just don’t think there is some last minute March pattern flip 

[rgwp96]

9 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

That's impressive considering how things have gone thus far.  Between this morning and tonight I measured nada.  The colder surfaces, including grass, had a very light coating of saturated wet snow that I did not even bother to measure.

Did you see something that I didn't @rgwp96?  Seems like places south and west of us got under better banding.

My precip total was .11 and a trace of snow by my house but on top of the hill behind Lowe’s grassy areas had .25-.50 ( well at the party I was at up there )And yes we missed most of the heavier echoes .  It did snow for awhile but just didn’t stick especially in lower spots of town 

[bluewave]

50 degrees in Newark at 11am.

Newark Liberty FAIR      50  39  66 SW7  

[JerseyWx]

23 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

My precip total was .11 and a trace of snow by my house but on top of the hill behind Lowe’s grassy areas had .25-.50 ( well at the party I was at up there )And yes we missed most of the heavier echoes .  It did snow for awhile but just didn’t stick especially in lower spots of town 

Interesting.  I'd say .25" here too.  What are you on the season?

[the_other_guy]

For my peeps suffering at home in the warm weather… The Adirondacks have plenty of snow and cold

[TJW014]

58* here so far. I think ill take off the roof and do some cruising when I get home before throwing the cover on for all this rain later in the week. And pray that the Subie will start.