February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 10degs. AN.

Feb. 02-18 is averaging 37degs., or about 3degs. AN, with 7" of Snow near the 13th. again.     PV never overwhelms this area by moving S and E of us, and warm air keeps getting involved in the mix which can be good for storms----but only in a clash with Arctic air.

WINTER TO DATE:      since Dec. 01   +3.5       since Dec. 22      +7.0   (includes Feb. 01)

39* here at 6am.  Streets are wet.   38* at 6:30am.      41*, partial  sunshine at 10am.     44* by 3pm.       Down to  39* windy, drizzle by 4:30pm.

 

[wdrag]

Good Sunday morning everyone,  Wantage NJ 0.4" 230A-530A. Season now 17.1"  Just salted the roads here at 700'MSL. 

Here's my thinking this afternoon-evening... based on strong WAA with pretty FGEN in eastern PA late today weakening as it transits east to NYC-BOS so that pretty good snowfall out in ne PA/extreme nw NJ weakens eastward and probably melts NYC.  If the FGEN shows sign of improvement for NYC I'll add the graphic later today. 

Snow redevelops this afternoon in ne PA between 2-3PM and spreads into nw NJ around 4P, diminishing to flurries or freezing rain sprinkles around 11PM. Should see between 1/2-2" with the snow coming down at a pretty good rate around sundown with untreated slippery roads developing in high terrain---more so than the impact of early this morning. Heaviest snow probably Pike County to northern Wantage-Vernon-High Point where I think an inch is likely, despite NWS and EPS statistics not very enthusiastic for 1".

I'm pretty sure we have significant ice threat (glaze with front end snow-sleet totals probably under 3") for the I84 region into nw NJ Thursday.  NYC might have a touch of snow/sleet but statistically not promising for much if any of both. Wind briefly above 45 MPH may be a problem for NYC-LI Friday. The ice and wind threats for Thu-Fri have been signaled for several days by the various models, with latitude of the primary impacts showing some variability. Timing could of both could be a player in cancels-delays. 715A/2

[Animal]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Sunday morning everyone,  Wantage NJ 0.4" 230A-530A. Season now 17.1"  Just salted the roads here at 700'MSL. 

Here's my thinking this afternoon-evening... based on strong WAA with pretty FGEN in eastern PA late today weakening as it transits east to NYC-BOS so that pretty good snowfall out in ne PA/extreme nw NJ weakens eastward and probably melts NYC.  If the FGEN shows sign of improvement for NYC I'll add the graphic later today. 

Snow redevelops this afternoon in ne PA between 2-3PM and spreads into nw NJ around 4P, diminishing to flurries or freezing rain sprinkles around 11PM. Should see between 1/2-2" with the snow coming down at a pretty good rate around sundown with untreated slippery roads developing in high terrain---more so than the impact of early this morning. Heaviest snow probably Pike County to northern Wantage-Vernon-High Point where I think an inch is likely, despite NWS and EPS statistics not very enthusiastic for 1".

I'm pretty sure we have significant ice threat (glaze with front end snow-sleet totals probably under 3") for the I84 region into nw NJ Thursday.  NYC might have a touch of snow/sleet but statistically not promising for much if any of both. Wind briefly above 45 MPH may be a problem for NYC-LI Friday. The ice and wind threats for Thu-Fri have been signaled for several days by the various models, with latitude of the primary impacts showing some variability. Timing could of both could be a player in cancels-delays. 715A/2

Looks like around the same here with snow overnight. 

[ForestHillWx]

Woke up to find a surprise dusting of snow.  Pleasant to see on Groundhog Day. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

1. Much of the region saw little or no snow during the past 36 hours. The seasonal snow drought continues.

2. The AO remains forecast to rise to extreme positive levels after the first week of the month (> +5.000 on the EPS).

3. The day 10-15 mean 500 mb height anomalies on the EPS depict a ridge that extends over the southeast and below normal height anomalies over a broad expanse of below normal height anomalies that stretch from the Pacific Northwest, across much of Canada, and into northern Europe.

4. A cluster of February AO +4.000 or above cases had a similar hemispheric pattern, though the composite mean didn't stretch quite as far east into Scandinavia as is currently shown on the EPS. The 500 mb height anomalies and surface temperature anomalies for that subset are below:

5. Parts of the Northeast were shown as somewhat colder than normal with the Lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast being warmer than normal. Most of Europe was warmer than normal.

6. Within a week, the cool anomalies in the Northeast, where they existed, yielded to warmer anomalies. Europe remained warm.

7. Overall, the ideas of a warmer to much warmer than normal February in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions and much warmer than normal (especially in eastern Europe and western Russia) would remain solidly on track if the forecast teleconnections and depicted pattern on the EPS verify.

[JustinRP37]

Groundhog took the easy road out and predicted a continuation of spring this ‘winter’. What did NYC’s groundhog predict?

https://weather.com/news/news/2020-01-30-groundhog-day-punxsutawney-phil-did-he-see-his-shadow

[wdrag]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

1. Much of the region saw little or no snow during the past 36 hours. The seasonal snow drought continues.

2. The AO remains forecast to rise to extreme positive levels after the first week of the month (> +5.000 on the EPS).

3. The day 10-15 mean 500 mb height anomalies on the EPS depict a ridge that extends over the southeast and below normal height anomalies over a broad expanse of below normal height anomalies that stretch from the Pacific Northwest, across much of Canada, and into northern Europe.

4. A cluster of February AO +4.000 or above cases had a similar hemispheric pattern, though the composite mean didn't stretch quite as far east into Scandinavia as is currently shown on the EPS. The 500 mb height anomalies and surface temperature anomalies for that subset are below:

5. Parts of the Northeast were shown as somewhat colder than normal with the Lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast being warmer than normal. Most of Europe was warmer than normal.

6. Within a week, the cool anomalies in the Northeast, where they existed, yielded to warmer anomalies. Europe remained warm.

7. Overall, the ideas of a warmer to much warmer than normal February in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions and much warmer than normal (especially in eastern Europe and western Russia) would remain solidly on track if the forecast teleconnections and depicted pattern on the EPS verify.

Don,  I like stats and I expect you will be right...  but am a little concerned in short term that all the excessive warmth is still within the snow-ice threshold window.  Also,  i don't like seeing the EPO being forecast consistently negative as I see AK is trending warmer both aloft and the surface, via the anomalies as you posted and and the NAEFS as well.  This shall be interesting for ice events I84 region northward the next two-three weeks as a storm track from the southern Plains into the northeast exists, with multiple events already modeled and a very warm southern USA fighting for dominance against a normally cold southern Canada.  Also,  it seems to the polar vortex is slowly shifting southeastward out of the arctic and not quite sure how the AO is forecast so darn strong? This is probably my error in viewing the hemispheric pattern?  For us, timing the departing cold highs to our northeast will be critical for ice, vs rain knowing I95 NYC southward probably is cooked for any significant snow. 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Don,  I like stats and I expect you will be right...  but am a little concerned in short term that all the excessive warmth is still within the snow-ice threshold window.  Also,  i don't like seeing the EPO being forecast consistently negative as I see AK is trending warmer both aloft and the surface, via the anomalies as you posted and and the NAEFS as well.  This shall be interesting for ice events I84 region northward the next two-three weeks as a storm track from the southern Plains into the northeast exists, with multiple events already modeled and a very warm southern USA fighting for dominance against a normally cold southern Canada.  Also,  it seems to the polar vortex is slowly shifting southeastward out of the arctic and not quite sure how the AO is forecast so darn strong? This is probably my error in viewing the hemispheric pattern?  For us, timing the departing cold highs to our northeast will be critical for ice, vs rain knowing I95 NYC southward probably is cooked for any significant snow. 

I agree with your concerns, as well as thoughts for I-84 and northward. Over the next week or so, I think there remain opportunities for at least some snowfall, generally well north and west of PHL-EWR-NYC-BDR.

I'm not confident in the EPS's idea that the AO will exceed +6.000 for multiple days. +3.000 and +4.000 seem likely.

Have a great rest of the weekend.

[wdrag]

Just had an interesting experience. (Nice to have a day off when this happens.)  Our home and the one next door... at about 850AM.... with temp at 32.4 but sun shining on the roofs... melted the snow which suddenly  broke through marginal dams and cascaded-spilled into downspouts and onto the porch roof below. 

[Rtd208]

No positives for snowlovers in Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter that's for sure. He says the pattern is NOT going to change and the Easter Seaboard will remain more mild/warm then cold. He also is hinting at a hot summer east of the Continental Divide and good chances for severe weather in the center of the country this spring.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

No positives for snowlovers in Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter that's for sure. He says the pattern is NOT going to change and the Easter Seaboard will remain more mild/warm then cold. He also is hinting at a hot summer east of the Continental Divide and good chances for severe weather in the center of the country this spring.

This is just insane

Something has to give

[tomcatct]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This is just insane

Something has to give

Welcome to the 1980's Ant...

[bluewave]

The 2020’s are starting with a completely different AO state than the 2010’s did. 


 

 

 

[IrishRob17]

27 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Just had an interesting experience. (Nice to have a day off when this happens.)  Our home and the one next door... at about 850AM.... with temp at 32.4 but sun shining on the roofs... melted the snow which suddenly  broke through marginal dams and cascaded-spilled into downspouts and onto the porch roof below. 

I noticed in my driveway stripes of snow left behind from when the sun popped out for a couple of minutes and melted the snow that wasn’t in a trees shadow. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

32.0° 0.2 inches from last nights storm.

Brings the seasonal total to an even 19.0 inches. Still a solid two months for snow, but It will be tough getting to the seasonal average of 50-53 inches at this rate

[White Gorilla]

46 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

No positives for snowlovers in Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter that's for sure. He says the pattern is NOT going to change and the Easter Seaboard will remain more mild/warm then cold. He also is hinting at a hot summer east of the Continental Divide and good chances for severe weather in the center of the country this spring.

It is what it is.  Can't control it.  I will need to spray bug repellent around my house earlier and more frequently this year it looks like. 

[IrishRob17]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

32.0° 0.2 inches from last nights storm (sarcasm)

Brings the seasonal total to an even 19.0 inches. Still a solid two months for snow, but It will be tough getting to the seasonal average of 50-53 inches at this rate

That’s a nice seasonal average, how long back do your records go at your location?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

That’s a nice seasonal average, how long back do your records go at your location?

From 1998/99 through 2009/10 is not complete so i had to estimate in spots.

I have everything from 2010/11 to present.

I wish I had been keeping complete records in 1995/96, I know I went over 100 but not sure of the exact figure.

Since 2010 I also measure every minor event (case in point last nights 0.2 inches, 0.5 from Jan 8 squall, 0.4 from Dec 18 squall, 0.8 from Jan 6 etc, etc) I've noticed many people ignore those type events in their totals and in the end they make a difference.

What's your average up there Rob and how far back do your records go?

[MJO812]

[wdrag]

By the way, I have checked the CoCoRAHS reps and widespread 0.2-0.8" fell overnight in ne PA and far nw NJ.  Wantage total now 17.1". The 5am viewing of small flake snow was uplifting...no matter how paltry.  Roads were salted here at 530A and driveways were still icy at 8AM, so even the little ones can have impact (bone breakers - if not careful).  It all adds up.  

I think we love the KU storms but they aren't often... I didn't count them up but my guess is we average ~1-2/year with some years ni,l like this one, but some years 3.  Maybe someone will chime in on the mean of KU's/yr? 

In any case it's inspiring to see a little snow.  NYC should not be surprised for a little wet snow mix this eve, and no acc.  Not sure about all the big warmup for us tomorrow-Tuesday either...  my guess is with sunshine we can crack 50 in the non sea breezed areas.  Interior nw NJ Tuesday might have a hard time exceeding 40s.  BL temps are not modeled quite as warm up here along I80. EC was pretty quick past two cycles spreading a bit of snow-ice down into southern NYS early next week. 

[bluewave]

You wonder if the MJO slowing in the warm phases like this means different March expectations from recent years? The MJO last several years made it to the cold phases by late February. Then we got the lagged cold and snow for March.

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, tomcatct said:

Welcome to the 1980's Ant...

More like 90s. 80s were considerably colder and most years saw at least 3x what we've had this year

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You wonder if the MJO slowing in the warm phases like this means different March expectations from recent years? The MJO last several years made it to the cold phases by late February. Then we got the lagged cold and snow for March.

I think so.....Eric fisher had a interesting tweet about years with a AO this positive the warmth continued into March. I don’t see much help from the mjo after the 15th. The roundy plots keep convection in the warm phases and it collapses there. We would need other help if we want a cold March. I just don’t see help from the Pv or any other area to think that currently. This is a mild/snowless winter from end to end 

[weatherpruf]

16 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I too, have questioned the water rising thing. I live on Long Island. Don’t see it. 

Ask the folks in Miami

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

From 1998/99 through 2009/10 is not complete so i had to estimate in spots.

I have everything from 2010/11 to present.

I wish I had been keeping complete records in 1995/96, I know I went over 100 but not sure of the exact figure.

Since 2010 I also measure every minor event (case in point last nights 0.2 inches, 0.5 from Jan 8 squall, 0.4 from Dec 18 squall, 0.8 from Jan 6 etc, etc) I've noticed many people ignore those type events in their totals and in the end they make a difference.

What's your average up there Rob and how far back do your records go?

I think many of us wish we had started earlier with better records. I did have some 95-96 stuff jotted down on the old Commodore 128 but it’s long gone LOL. I started a weather log back in 1999 where I recorded a lot but still not as meticulous as I am now which started when I moved here in May 2005. That said, work sometimes gets in the way of measuring snow plus I’m not pulling all nighters to measure exactly when a storm ends in the middle of the night. Anyway, here are some numbers, remember I’m only a couple miles as the crow flies from KMGJ:

KMGJ long term, last I checked: 42.2”

My average here since 2005: 46.8”

My 09-10 thru 18-19: 49.1”

[lee59]

39 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Ask the folks in Miami

Actually there is some evidence that the Miami sea level rise is not the sea rising but the ground sinking. I am not saying the ocean is or isn't rising, just referring to certain parts of the Miami area that have some flooding issues.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Wow think back to 2 weeks ago and what the models were showing for today and how it actually is outside right now  ! Enjoy the game all

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I think so.....Eric fisher had a interesting tweet about years with a AO this positive the warmth continued into March. I don’t see much help from the mjo after the 15th. The roundy plots keep convection in the warm phases and it collapses there. We would need other help if we want a cold March. I just don’t see help from the Pv or any other area to think that currently. This is a mild/snowless winter from end to end 

Yeah, the roundly plots slow down the MJO through the warm phases. Convection really lingers over those record warm SST’s. 
 

 

[weatherpruf]

21 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Actually there is some evidence that the Miami sea level rise is not the sea rising but the ground sinking. I am not saying the ocean is or isn't rising, just referring to certain parts of the Miami area that have some flooding issues.

Interesting. hadn't heard that.

[bluewave]

The 5.9 inch sea level rise in South Florida since 1996 is a mix of both subsidence and rising sea levels.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/08/analysis-sea-level-rise-is-combining-with-other-factors-regularly-flood-miami/

According to this analysis, there was a 5.9-inch sea-level rise in Miami since 1996. For a city that floods at just 16 inches above flood stage, that jump, which is due to both sea-level rise and land subsidence, is highly consequential.

You might think that should correspond to a 38 percent increase in the amount of flooding Miami is seeing now versus 23 years ago, since 5.9 inches is 38 percent of 16 inches. In reality, there has been a 3.2-fold increase in how often Miami sees nuisance flooding. That’s a 320 percent jump.

The reason? Flooding is nonlinear. That means that even if the sea level rose at a constant rate, the impacts and flooding Miami residents would experience skyrocket disproportionately fast.