bluewave Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 First two years in a row since the 1990’s without at least a NESIS cat 1 snowstorm. The article notes the last two years as 1997-1998 and 1998-1999. But some may have considered the March 1999 heavy wet snow event as a NESIS 1. So we would have to go back to the early 1990’s. A very extreme benchmark storm track shut down after March 2018. All our storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression since then. Winter Storm Tracks 2019-20 The arrows represent the tracks of significant winter storms so far this season. The shaded areas are estimates of total snowfall this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: First two years in a row since the 1990’s without at least a NESIS cat 1 snowstorm. The article notes the last two years as 1997-1998 and 1998-1999. But some may have considered the March 1999 heavy wet snow event as a NESIS 1. So we would have to go back to the early 1990’s. A very extreme benchmark storm track shut down after March 2018. All our storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression since then. Winter Storm Tracks 2019-20 The arrows represent the tracks of significant winter storms so far this season. The shaded areas are estimates of total snowfall this season. When we have a awful pacific with zero blocking odds favor a poor storm track. Hopefully next winter we improve the pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: When we have a awful pacific with zero blocking odds favor a poor storm track. Hopefully next winter we improve the pac. Our area sucks for snow. We all need to move to a snowiest climate. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: The last 2 days of February are averaging 35degs., or 3degs. BN. Month to date is +5.6[40.7]. February should end at +5.0[40.3]. The first 15 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS) 42degs.[35/49], or about 2degs. AN. Output is snow less. 30* here at 6am. only +2? That's a freezer for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Wow got all the way down to 23° this morning, only three degrees above the normal low for the date of 20°. What a pitiful excuse for a winter. Keep rooting for those sustained 70's in March warmists, I don't see any problems with that, perfectly normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: only +2? That's a freezer for this year. It’s better than being BN in March...+2 by mid March is 50s already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Our area sucks for snow. We all need to move to a snowiest climate. Brooklyn is the worst spot, other than a couple of places on the south shore for snow in NY state. Go 40 geographical miles NW, N or NE of NYC and you go from a 25 inch average to a 45-50 inch average. You'll get colder average winter temps than Boston and comparable or better snowfall average than Bostons 43.8 inch per season. It makes a big difference especially regarding sustained snow pack. WTS, this winter had been pitiful for everyone in the Northeast in a line about 20-40 miles south of BInghamton to Albany to the NH/Mass border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Brooklyn is the worst spot, other than a couple of places on the south shore for snow in NY state. Go 40 geographical miles NW, N or NE of NYC and you go from a 25 inch average to a 45-50 inch average. You'll get colder average winter temps than Boston and comparable or better snowfall average than Bostons 43.8 inch per season. It makes a big difference especially regarding sustained snow pack. WTS, this winter had been pitiful for everyone in the Northeast in a line about 20-40 miles south of BInghamton to Albany to the NH/Mass border. If he drives 5 miles due north into queens he’s in a much better spot. If he drives 35 miles NE to NW Suffolk he will do even better. We have 9.5” here, more than triple south BK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Morning thoughts... 1. Despite low temperatures in the 20s this morning in much of the Middle Atlantic region, a warm and nearly completely snowless February is concluding. Through February 27, New York City had received a trace of snow and Philadelphia had received no snowfall. 2. February 2020 will rank as New York City's 7th warmest February on record and Philadelphia's 11th warmest on record. 3. February 2020 will be New York City's 9th February on record where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above. 7 (78%) of those years have occurred since 1990 and 4 (44%) have occurred since 2010. Records go back to 1869. 4. The raw February temperature averages for the forthcoming 1991-2020 base period will be as follows: New York City: 35.7° +0.4° from the current base period Philadelphia: 36.3° +0.6° from the current base period 5. The increase in the February mean temperature will be somewhat ahead of the increase in the global February temperature for those two cities. The global increase will be approximately +0.32°. 6. March will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal across the region with widespread temperature anomalies of 2°-4° above normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, psv88 said: If he drives 5 miles due north into queens he’s in a much better spot. If he drives 35 miles NE to NW Suffolk he will do even better. We have 9.5” here, more than triple south BK 9.5” woohoo!!! But agree, it’s hysterical how much different things can be here vs the south shore, and I’ve been here for two lousy winters (Last year lousy, this year among all time worst). I’d say it’s comparable here to SW CT and the bit of added elevation helps too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 The mid 20’s snowfall season has become a thing of the past here on Long Island. Every season since 2010 has been much above or much below average. This all or nothing snowfall pattern became more common since the 93-94 season. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2020-04-30 6.8 64 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 BNL snowfall https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 9 hours ago, bluewave said: First two years in a row since the 1990’s without at least a NESIS cat 1 snowstorm. The article notes the last two years as 1997-1998 and 1998-1999. But some may have considered the March 1999 heavy wet snow event as a NESIS 1. So we would have to go back to the early 1990’s. A very extreme benchmark storm track shut down after March 2018. All our storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression since then. Winter Storm Tracks 2019-20 The arrows represent the tracks of significant winter storms so far this season. The shaded areas are estimates of total snowfall this season. this is where naming winter storms is useful- you can actually recall which track belongs to which storm far better, especially when there are multiple large storms in a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The mid 20’s snowfall season has become a thing of the past here on Long Island. Every season since 2010 has been much above or much below average. This all or nothing snowfall pattern became more common since the 93-94 season. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2020-04-30 6.8 64 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 BNL snowfall https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm 11-12 was even worse than this year? I find that hard to imagine lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 23 hours ago, jm1220 said: If you’re okay with being a complete hermit, fine. that place will be crowded for the total solar eclipse in April 2024! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 8 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Brooklyn is the worst spot, other than a couple of places on the south shore for snow in NY state. Go 40 geographical miles NW, N or NE of NYC and you go from a 25 inch average to a 45-50 inch average. You'll get colder average winter temps than Boston and comparable or better snowfall average than Bostons 43.8 inch per season. It makes a big difference especially regarding sustained snow pack. WTS, this winter had been pitiful for everyone in the Northeast in a line about 20-40 miles south of BInghamton to Albany to the NH/Mass border. the problem is that's where the majority of people live. Brooklyn and Queens add up to the majority of the area's population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 11-12 was even worse than this year? I find that hard to imagine lol. Everyone keeps saying this winter didn't count, that one was worse. This year we had early December with some frozen substances, that didn't happen in 11/12. We had one blip in the sequence in January where things were white for a few hours but that was about it. 65 degrees on Christmas Eve and riding in t-shirts and shorts in February with flowers popping in early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 38 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Everyone keeps saying this winter didn't count, that one was worse. This year we had early December with some frozen substances, that didn't happen in 11/12. We had one blip in the sequence in January where things were white for a few hours but that was about it. 65 degrees on Christmas Eve and riding in t-shirts and shorts in February with flowers popping in early March. I'm curious to see what the snowfall totals were for areas west of Long Island, even the city got 3" in that Octosnowstorm. But outside of that event, I remember zilch from that season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Today saw temperatures remain in the lower 40s in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Nevertheless, as has been the case throughout January and February, this latest round of cold will be short-lived. After tomorrow, much milder air will move into the region early next week. Temperatures could surge into the 60s during the middle of next week as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal. Winter 2019-2020 became the 10th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 28. Mean total snowfall for the 10 prior cases was 7.1" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 78% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1958-59 with 13.0" seasonal snowfall. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +2.02 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.872. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 7, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the first week of March. On February 27, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.239 (RMM). The February 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.375. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied near 100% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.1° tying February 2020 with February 1954 as the 7th warmest February on record. Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Three (33%) occurred in 2010 or later. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I'm curious to see what the snowfall totals were for areas west of Long Island, even the city got 3" in that Octosnowstorm. But outside of that event, I remember zilch from that season! The October storm was an all out disaster here. We were just recovering from Irene and wham! A foot and a half of glue took down a few thousand more trees and they cancelled Halloween. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 The last day of February is averaging 34degs., or 4degs. BN. Month to date is +5.2[40.5]. February should end at +5.0[40.3]-----5th. Place. So starting with Dec. 22, just 13 days out of 70 have been BN days. Or 28 days out of 91, starting Dec. 01. The first week of March is averaging 45degs., or about 5degs. AN. 11 of the first 16 days of March are 50-Degree Days apparently, just next weekend offers anything winterlike. The first 16 days of March are averaging (06Z, GFS) 43.5degs.[37/50], or about 3degs. AN, with the snow 'a la carte' on this run, near Mar. 11. Interesting coincidence just in case: Our last snow was Jan. 18, the same as 1997-98, before that 5" on March 22. Then the greatest ridge ever seen at the end of March took over and the last 5 days of the month were all in the 80's. 29* here at 6am. 30* by 8am. 32* by 10am. 34* by Noon and looking like flurries might happen. 32* by 4pm and some flurries. 28* by 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 I believe LGA, JFK and ISP still have 0.0" snow for the month of Feb. If they make it through the day without a flurry, itd be the first Feb without even a trace of snow for those sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 12 hours ago, gravitylover said: The October storm was an all out disaster here. We were just recovering from Irene and wham! A foot and a half of glue took down a few thousand more trees and they cancelled Halloween. I'm in eastern Orange County about 45 miles due north of Manhattan and received 16 inches form the October storm. It was a disaster for the trees. I lost 4 flowering pear trees from that storm,. They didn't cancel Halloween here as the storm was on the 29th. It was interesting to see kids trick or treating with what was still an 8-10 inch snow cover on Halloween. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Root for that squall to hold together so some areas get their first trace for February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Root for that squall to hold together so some areas get their first trace for February. We had a light dusting on the uws yesterday morning. It would be nice to actually see it this time as that fell overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: We had a light dusting on the uws yesterday morning. It would be nice to actually see it this time as that fell overnight Imagine if some areas got their first February snow on leap day. Most of the time this would have been March 1st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I'm in eastern Orange County about 45 miles due north of Manhattan and received 16 inches form the October storm. It was a disaster for the trees. I lost 4 flowering pear trees from that storm,. They didn't cancel Halloween here as the storm was on the 29th. It was interesting to see kids trick or treating with what was still an 8-10 inch snow cover on Halloween. We still had countless branches falling and power lines down all over. Plows couldn't get through a lot of areas because of the lines down, my street didn't get plowed for 4 days so we were walking and driving over them because it's a dead end. It was super sketchy. 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: Imagine if some areas got their first February snow on leap day. Most of the time this would have been March 1st. Ha! I was thinking that. Is it cheating or just sliding in under the wire? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Imagine if some areas got their first February snow on leap day. Most of the time this would have been March 1st. Just thought of that too, would be ironic to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Radar looks decent but no statements or snow squall warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Not even a flurry so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Up in CT for the weekend. Good burst of snow going right now. Feels good! Going for a walk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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