February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Isn't there another thread for larger climate talk? 

I'm not sure? If there is, please let me know. 

Thanks. I will post there.

[White Gorilla]

10 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'm not sure? If there is, please let me know. 

Thanks. I will post there.

Have at it. 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

I too, have questioned the water rising thing. I live on Long Island. Don’t see it. 

Exactly brother. It's not happening. It's a lie.

[JustinRP37]

Before calling sea level rise a lie, how about we look at some facts? You go on about humans not being able to comprehend millions of years, but this far the oceans have risen in this area by about 9 inches since 1950. That level of change wouldn’t be perceptible to the naked eye. But why don’t we go look at parts of the Jersey shore that now regularly flood with the larger tides? Why don’t we look at the fact that parts of the Florida Keys also food during normal high tides when they didn’t before. Again, as someone studying this stuff I’m not paid to make up data. We simple look at numbers. 

[donsutherland1]

February began on a mild note as winter 2019-2020 remained remarkably moderate. In parts of the northern Rockies, temperatures soared to records. At Lewistown, MT, the temperature topped out at a springlike 70°, which tied that city's February record of 70°, which occurred on February 27, 1932.

Even warmer weather lies ahead for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions in coming days. As a result, the first week of the month will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later.

Somewhat colder air could return late in the first week of February or just afterward. However, Arctic air is unlikely. In addition, no significant snowfalls (6" or above) are likely through at least the first week of February for Washington, DC to New York City and the surrounding region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -15.27 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.022.

The guidance suggests that the AO could spend an extended period at or above +3.000 beginning during the second week of the month. Since 1950, none of the 36 days during which the AO was +3.000 or above saw daily snowfall of 1" or more in New York City or Philadelphia. During the overall February 5-20, 1950-2019 period, daily snowfall of 1" or more occurred on 8% days in New York City and 7% of days in Philadelphia. The biggest snowstorm during that timeframe when the AO was +3.000 or above was February 9-10, 1982. Boston picked up 4.0" snow; New York City received 0.3" snow; and, Philadelphia saw 0.6" snow.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 9. Upper stratospheric warming will peak just after the first week of February before slowly fading. Strong Wave 2 activity will occur during the first week of February driving the warming of the upper stratosphere, but then diminish. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February.

On January 31, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.809 (RMM). The January 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.133.

[danstorm]

14 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Exactly brother. It's not happening. It's a lie.

Yeah, because scientists are trained to lie. Makes sense.

Of course you aren't noticing it - it aligns with your Moscow/200 year point.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I think a respectable discussion can be had

 

climate change discussions are always disrespectful and always go downward

 

can anyone say how high waters have risen? I’ve lived on Long Island most of my life. Have not seen major changes. What numbers are we taking? 

The ongoing sea level rise may not seem apparent, as the sea level has been rising by millimeters per year. But over time, the rise is already playing out in an increased incidence of tidal flooding events. A useful paper:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5291542/pdf/pone.0170949.pdf

[A Moonlit Sky]

40 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I too, have questioned the water rising thing. I live on Long Island. Don’t see it. 

The Navy is looking to move their naval base in Norfolk. New Jersey and NYC are looking at building sea-walls. Miami floods on sunny days with the tide now. It's happening as ice melts.

What are you expecting? To wake up with the Atlantic in your driveway?

[Dan76]

You can see it on strong moon phases now where 20yrs ago no big deal. We had strong moons back in NOV and tide levels were very high                                                                                           luckily there was no strong east wind or there would of been some news worthy tides.

[sussexcountyobs]

54 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Before calling sea level rise a lie, how about we look at some facts? You go on about humans not being able to comprehend millions of years, but this far the oceans have risen in this area by about 9 inches since 1950. That level of change wouldn’t be perceptible to the naked eye. But why don’t we go look at parts of the Jersey shore that now regularly flood with the larger tides? Why don’t we look at the fact that parts of the Florida Keys also food during normal high tides when they didn’t before. Again, as someone studying this stuff I’m not paid to make up data. We simple look at numbers. 

Parts of the Florida Keys now flood during normal high tides. TRUE. BUT,  did those areas flood at times 3,005 years ago??? You can't answer. Have a nice night.

[JustinRP37]

6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Parts of the Florida Keys now flood during normal high tides. TRUE. BUT,  did those areas flood at times 3,005 years ago??? You can't answer. Have a nice night.

Actually we can answer that. The planet has been mainly a water planet at times in the past. Look at Arizona. Used to be deep under the sea. We know we have been through a lot. This isn’t anyone saying we have never. Just because humans were around doesn’t mean it wasn’t important or that we don’t know about it. Geology tells us a lot. But guess what, we can see what is coming based on current trends. Why do you think the military is spending billions on this? It isn’t a belief system. It is simply preparing for the future. 
 

Real question: how do you think we know where to look for oil and gas versus coal? Hint it has to do a lot with past hydrology.

[sussexcountyobs]

56 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Yeah, because scientists are trained to lie. Makes sense.

Of course you aren't noticing it - it aligns with your Moscow/200 year point.

Well scientist. What was the average January temperature in the Moscow region 203 years ago? Oh. You can't tell me? Your silence will be deafening, besides your reply that WILL NOT ANSWER MY QUESTION.

[BxEngine]

Enough. Discuss the february weather here. 

[JustinRP37]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Well scientist. What was the average January temperature in the Moscow region 203 years ago? Oh. You can't tell me? Your silence will be deafening, besides your reply that WILL NOT ANSWER MY QUESTION.

Why does having a discussion about this upset you so much and make you angry towards good people on this board? Nobody is attacking you. And we do have estimates of past climate. We know the earth has been warmer and colder in the past but the changes were always over thousands of years. Not a few hundred.

[sussexcountyobs]

5 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Actually we can answer that. The planet has been mainly a water planet at times in the past. Look at Arizona. Used to be deep under the sea. We know we have been through a lot. This isn’t anyone saying we have never. Just because humans were around doesn’t mean it wasn’t important or that we don’t know about it. Geology tells us a lot. But guess what, we can see what is coming based on current trends. Why do you think the military is spending billions on this? It isn’t a belief system. It is simply preparing for the future. 
 

Real question: how do you think we know where to look for oil and gas versus coal? Hint it has to do a lot with past hydrology.

Very good post. My issue is the people on here who believe it is humans that are some how destroying the climate, warming the planet etc.. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

Why does having a discussion about this upset you so much and make you angry towards good people on this board? Nobody is attacking you. And we do have estimates of past climate. We know the earth has been warmer and colder in the past but the changes were always over thousands of years. Not a few hundred.

I'm not angry towards anyone on this board? Why do you project that on me? I'm offended. Is it because I'm black??? 

[danstorm]

8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Well scientist. What was the average January temperature in the Moscow region 203 years ago? Oh. You can't tell me? Your silence will be deafening, besides your reply that WILL NOT ANSWER MY QUESTION.

I shouldn't have wasted my time on the  initial response.

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, danstorm said:

I shouldn't have wasted my time on the  initial response.

Well , just answer the question? Easy peasy.

[sussexcountyobs]

19 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Why does having a discussion about this upset you so much and make you angry towards good people on this board? Nobody is attacking you. And we do have estimates of past climate. We know the earth has been warmer and colder in the past but the changes were always over thousands of years. Not a few hundred.

Were they always over thousands of years, not hundreds? Can you be absolutely definitive on that? What about over 100's of thousand years? And a few decades thrown in between that may have been WAY warmer than the average? Lot's of questions? Do you know? I don't.  And neither do you.

[A Moonlit Sky]

35 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Well scientist. What was the average January temperature in the Moscow region 203 years ago? Oh. You can't tell me? Your silence will be deafening, besides your reply that WILL NOT ANSWER MY QUESTION.

Here are the temperature records. Record keeping in Moscow goes back to the late 1700s.

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, Minenfeld! said:

Here are the temperature records. Record keeping in Moscow goes back to the late 1700s.

Lol! A blip in time if your talking about the Earth warming. Again. What was the average January temp in what is now Moscow 1200 years ago?? How about 646 years ago? 367 years ago???? Please tell me. 

[JustinRP37]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Were they always over thousands of years, not hundreds? Can you be absolutely definitive on that? What about over 100's of thousand years? And a few decades thrown in between that may have been WAY warmer than the average? Lot's of questions? Do you know? I don't.  And neither do you.

 

27 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'm not angry towards anyone on this board? Why do you project that on me? I'm offended. Is it because I'm black??? 

You say nobody knows then attack me saying lot’s of questions and nobody knows and neither do I. Sure we don’t know what the exact temperature was 1,000,000 years ago at X location, but we can give you a fairly accurate range of what it was. I have dedicated my life thus far to science. I have worked hard to try and understand the natural world. I have studied climate modeling, looked at historical climates and patterns. Since we are from the tri-state area, I’d offer to meet you and introduce you to some of the hard working researchers that are working hard to not only to look into the past but also peek into the future. I have also given others access to scientific journals (anyone can reach out to me if they want something). 
 

Can I ask you though, what is so wrong about asking for cleaner air and water? Look up the Cuyahoga River fire of 1969 or what happened with DDT.

[donsutherland1]

With good agreement among the EPS and GEFS that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will likely have an extended duration where it is at +3.000 or above, below are the Northern Hemisphere composite 500 mb and surface temperature anomalies for all February dates when the AO was +3.000 or above.

February 1950-2019 cases with the AO of +3.000 or above (n=81 days):

Warmth in the eastern United States and in much of Europe, an outcome that appears likely for February 2020, was associated with those dates.

At the same time, only 1 of New York City's 6" or greater February snowstorms (1950-2019) occurred when the AO was at or above +3.000. Neither Philadelphia nor Washington, DC had any such storms with such a strongly positive AO.

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

 

You say nobody knows then attack me saying lot’s of questions and nobody knows and neither do I. Sure we don’t know what the exact temperature was 1,000,000 years ago at X location, but we can give you a fairly accurate range of what it was. I have dedicated my life thus far to science. I have worked hard to try and understand the natural world. I have studied climate modeling, looked at historical climates and patterns. Since we are from the tri-state area, I’d offer to meet you and introduce you to some of the hard working researchers that are working hard to not only to look into the past but also peek into the future. I have also given others access to scientific journals (anyone can reach out to me if they want something). 
 

Can I ask you though, what is so wrong about asking for cleaner air and water? Look up the Cuyahoga River fire of 1969 or what happened with DDT.

Well who wouldn't want cleaner air and water? Did I say I wanted that? Are you drunk or something? Do you always put words in other people's mouths?

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'm not sure? If there is, please let me know. 

Thanks. I will post there.

I've already pointed you to it.  

7 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Do you have a clownmap

We have a different thread for these threats.   Do not clog up this thread with this stuff. 

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Well who wouldn't want cleaner air and water? Did I say I wanted that? Are you drunk or something? Do you always put words in other people's mouths?

Enough. Seriously. 

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Enough. Seriously. 

No problem.

[Barman49]

Good lord do we need a big snow.

 

Edit... How about the incredible GFS in 4 runs with 4 different outcomes.

 

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

[wdrag]

No separate thread for this minor on-going event here in nw NJ but just saying: Wantage NJ at 430A/2   0.2" snowing steadily small flakes. all surfaces covered except roads wet with some covered spots. 32/30.  This is a GFS miss. NAM and all other non GFS models had this minor early Sunday event. Am thrilled for seeing early morning minor snowfall.  Yesterdays 0.1" had melted by 9a. Cheers from the hills of nw NJ 740'MSL. 

[wdrag]

This continues to be pretty exciting for us up here in nw NJ, considering the winter in progress. 0.4" at 508A. Some of this is coming to the NYC northern suburbs now.    Enjoy every minutes of this.  Poor picture from my I8 but here is is.  mPing reporting from up here.