donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I can’t find the article now. But I saw a headline the other day that the polar vortex has kept winter out of the eastern US so what exactly is happening? Just a weird winter pattern? Is this the article to which you were referring? https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/19/polar-vortex-is-approaching-record-strength-thats-not-scary-thing/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: With the very early start to the growing season (3+ weeks early) in the Mid-Atlantic/South I think there could be a destructive freeze in late March or early April if the AO flips by then. Not much cold air though even if it did flip. I think this ends up being a 2002, 2012 style spring-warm and dry with a mainly zonal flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I can’t find the article now. But I saw a headline the other day that the polar vortex has kept winter out of the eastern US so what exactly is happening? Just a weird winter pattern? seems like it happens every 10 yrs or so, 2001 and 2011 featured an exceptionally strong PV over the pole which kept the cold air locked up there and Alaska. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: seems like it happens every 10 yrs or so, 2001 and 2011 featured an exceptionally strong PV over the pole which kept the cold air locked up there and Alaska. The Met Office seasonal model did a nice job picking up on the winter pattern back in the fall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 30 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I can’t find the article now. But I saw a headline the other day that the polar vortex has kept winter out of the eastern US so what exactly is happening? Just a weird winter pattern? The Polar Vortex gained strength in December then coupled with atmosphere in January. This means all the cold stays locked up by the pole with no way to get in into the conus. That along with a unfavorable mjo (stuck in 5/6) was the nail in the this winters coffin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Met Office seasonal model did a nice job picking up on the winter pattern back in the fall. Yep, the seasonal models did a great job this winter. They made up for the 2018-2019 blocking -nao fail. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 February 2015 seems so long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 23 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep, the seasonal models did a great job this winter. They made up for the 2018-2019 blocking -nao fail. I think the inability of the El Niño to couple last winter really threw them off. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think the inability of the El Niño to couple last winter really threw them off. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall Absolutely! That’s why the weeklies kept showing a good pattern weeks 3-6. The ssw didn’t couple either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Absolutely! That’s why the weeklies kept showing a good pattern weeks 3-6. The ssw didn’t couple either. Yeah, this was the second winter in a row that an area of record SST’s somewhere west to date line had a huge impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 16 hours ago, snowman19 said: The large area of 90+ degree SSTs north of Australia with convection firing over it back in November should have been a huge red flag that the entire global heat budget and wavetrain forcing was going to get altered in a very big way. The same thing happened back in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño, when ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November and certain people were still using 57-58, 02-03, and 09-10 as “analogs” and forecasting a very cold and snowy winter in the east because the super nino was more “west-based” than 97-98..... In fairness 2016 ended up somewhat in between. After the December into early Jan torch the rest of winter there was significantly more cold available than in 98. There were numerous additional snow opportunities with cold around after the HECS in Feb and March but they failed to come together. There were several perfect wave passes where the system just failed to amplify. 98 simply lacked any cold wall to wall. 2016 has some characteristics of both and with some more luck could have been even snowier in the mid Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: In fairness 2016 ended up somewhat in between. After the December into early Jan torch the rest of winter there was significantly more cold available than in 98. There were numerous additional snow opportunities with cold around after the HECS in Feb and March but they failed to come together. There were several perfect wave passes where the system just failed to amplify. 98 simply lacked any cold wall to wall. 2016 has some characteristics of both and with some more luck could have been even snowier in the mid Atlantic. Not entirely true. February 2016 ended up being about 2° above normal and March 2016 ended up being the 4th warmest March on record. A horrible winter overall, with one historic storm for NYC (28-31 inches) and close by burbs (we in the North land got screwed by that one) that melted in most places in several days. That's not my idea of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Not entirely true. February 2016 ended up being about 2° above normal and March 2016 ended up being the 4th warmest March on record. A horrible winter overall, with one historic storm for NYC and close by burbs (we in the North land got screwed by that one) that melted in most places in several days. That's not my idea of winter. This!! I get so perplexed on this board and others when snow lovers are happy with a winter with one massive storm and a torch the rest of the way. I just don’t understand. Do they just like snow accumulations for bragging rights? I feel like half the people rooting for snow don’t do anything with it. I look forward to winter sports, hiking, skiing, snowshoeing, hell even ice fishing. I honestly would be happy with one 6 inch storm with cold to keep he snow around for three weeks than I would be with an 18 in her that melts in three days with a torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 The warm waters in the western tropical Pacific essentially forced a strong Nina type pattern for North America. It wasn’t anywhere close to strong Nina index-wise but the pattern outcome was classic Nina. Cold west/North/Alaska, above normal snow NNE, PNW and Midwest, SE ridge and raging Pacific Jet dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 WNY keeps winning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Tomorrow will remain unseasonably mild. However, colder air will arrive late Thursday night or Friday. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +12.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.263. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 4, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 24, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.850 (RMM). The February 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.985. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 93% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.0°. Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Three (33%) occurred in 2010 or later. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Can't have a more awful Feb. day... Temp split of 50/43 with 0.22" of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 The last 4 days of February are averaging 41degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +5.7[40.6]. February should end at +5.3[40.7]. The first 13 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS) 42degs., or about 2.5degs. AN., with minor snow threats, 2" on the 5th. The T cut is 35/49 for the period. 48* here at 6am. 49* at 7am. 50* at 8am. 51* by Noon. 47* by 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 This winter will finish near the bottom of the list for winter hours below freezing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Euro and now the GFS pick up on the long range snow event. Too early to get excited but can we go with a bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 5:54 PM, snowman19 said: The large area of 90+ degree SSTs north of Australia with convection firing over it back in November should have been a huge red flag that the entire global heat budget and wavetrain forcing was going to get altered in a very big way. The same thing happened back in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño, when ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November and certain people were still using 57-58, 02-03, and 09-10 as “analogs” and forecasting a very cold and snowy winter in the east because the super nino was more “west-based” than 97-98..... Right, but it's more obvious when it shows up, but I didn't react until I saw it. What I'm saying is that there should have been people identifying that risk ahead of time, before the rapid warm-up in early November instead of seeing it in Dec and going 'oh crap'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 15 hours ago, MJO812 said: WNY keeps winning The season long torch is helping them immensely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 NYC needs 0.1 to get out of 1st place for the earliest end to the measurable snowfall season on record. 1-18-2020....2.1....so far 1-19-2002....3.0 2-01-1878....2.0 2-12-2012....0.2 2-12-1925....1.3 2-15-1986....0.1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 34 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: The season long torch is helping them immensely. The waters arent even frozen over yet. This will be a crushing storm for many lake areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Redfield is the place for be this week. 2-3 feet. Huge lake effect band. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 18 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Not entirely true. February 2016 ended up being about 2° above normal and March 2016 ended up being the 4th warmest March on record. A horrible winter overall, with one historic storm for NYC (28-31 inches) and close by burbs (we in the North land got screwed by that one) that melted in most places in several days. That's not my idea of winter. I didn't say it was a good winter...but the pattern ended up a hybrid between the cold/snowy west based nino analogs and the warmer more east based super ninos. It certainly was warmer and less snowy than the analogs like 58, 03, 10 but it did feature more "chances" at snow in the mid atlantic with cold periods than 1998. All of them other than the one big HECS missed NYC but that details while very important to ground truth doesn't mean a lot wrt to the larger scale pattern. There was a weak wave that missed NYC to the south right before the HECS. There were small accumulations in VA and MD from that. Another wave right after got suppressed and failed to amplify and no one got anything. I got 8" here in MD from a storm on Feb 9-10th that stayed south of NYC. Then there was a 4-8" snowstorm in VA and southern MD that missed to the south of NYC a week later and then an ice storm right after that. Then there were 2 threats in March, one the first week and then one around the 19th that put down some snow to the south of NYC and were threats to be a bigger storm but failed to phase and amplify. There were several periods of cold/snow threats that winter...mid January, another mid February, and then 2 cold snaps in March with threats. In between there were full on torch periods that skewed the mean temps very warm. But that was different from 1998 when there were very few periods where it was cold enough for a snow threat. NYC got screwed over and most of the other threats failed to phase or amplify and stayed south of NYC but there were snow threats. IN the end it was probably way closer to 98 or 83 than 2010 but it did feature more cold periods and snow threats in the mid atlantic than those years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 18 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: This!! I get so perplexed on this board and others when snow lovers are happy with a winter with one massive storm and a torch the rest of the way. I just don’t understand. Do they just like snow accumulations for bragging rights? I feel like half the people rooting for snow don’t do anything with it. I look forward to winter sports, hiking, skiing, snowshoeing, hell even ice fishing. I honestly would be happy with one 6 inch storm with cold to keep he snow around for three weeks than I would be with an 18 in her that melts in three days with a torch. Read my post above. My comment was about the pattern and nothing to do with what I want, whether that winter was good/bad, or snowfall totals. Snowfall is very fluky and can be a bad way to determine pattern similarities alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 12 hours ago, doncat said: Can't have a more awful Feb. day... Temp split of 50/43 with 0.22" of rain. Today says hold my beer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Read my post above. My comment was about the pattern and nothing to do with what I want, whether that winter was good/bad, or snowfall totals. Snowfall is very fluky and can be a bad way to determine pattern similarities alone. Oh my comment wasn’t about you I didn’t see your post but in general I know a lot of people that just go off snow totals. One big storms makes the year for them and I’m just perplexed as a skier. That’s all. Sorry for any confusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 4:48 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Not entirely true. February 2016 ended up being about 2° above normal and March 2016 ended up being the 4th warmest March on record. A horrible winter overall, with one historic storm for NYC (28-31 inches) and close by burbs (we in the North land got screwed by that one) that melted in most places in several days. That's not my idea of winter. well NYC did have the rare below zero low on Valentines Day. We had other heavy snow events besides the big blockbuster though, one of those brought down a crane in the city. It was JFK's 40 inch / 40 degree winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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