Allsnow Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 One way on how not to have a winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 At 1 pm, the temperature was 61° in Central Park. That ties the 61° recorded on February 4 as the warmest reading this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 64 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 39 minutes ago, Allsnow said: One way on how not to have a winter Like a broken record it skips back to 4/5/6. However I think 5 is not as warm come March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 60 here in Brooklyn Horrible for February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: 60 here in Brooklyn Horrible for February embrace the torch, it's the only torch ya got. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 54 here, topped out at 59 before it started cooling off. Highest temp of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Looks like the big warmth is over for awhile-colder Thurs-Mon-we'll see what happens after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 reached 62, back down to 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 It was easily 65 in the woods in Danbury this afternoon, the parking lot in the shade at the bottom of the hill was 64 so on the hill in the sun it was probably closer to 70. Beautiful day for a mt bike ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Made it to 61° briefly before winds went se...back down to 50° now. Low this am of 30°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 High of 63, now 58. but I see those 40s in southern queens, SI etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, dWave said: High of 63, now 58. but I see those 40s in southern queens, SI etc. your typical february sea breeze 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: your typical february sea breeze Forky u think we get anymore snow this season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Philly narrowly avoided the trace of snow they got in 72-73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 61 for the high here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 8 hours ago, NittanyWx said: I think the Australia situation was one where people weren't paying attention or connecting the dots in retrospect. I don't think a lot of people, at least here in the states anyway, look that closely at Australia to see whether the rainy season advancement was delayed or not. Once it was clear that was going to happen and solar radiation was going to be much higher than usual at a time when the IOD was collapsing, in retrospect that was a big flag that we should have seen coming. Even as someone who had a mild winter forecasted, I wasn't nearly warm enough and I think it's because I was too slow to the draw on recognizing that piece and wave train alteration accordingly. The large area of 90+ degree SSTs north of Australia with convection firing over it back in November should have been a huge red flag that the entire global heat budget and wavetrain forcing was going to get altered in a very big way. The same thing happened back in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño, when ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November and certain people were still using 57-58, 02-03, and 09-10 as “analogs” and forecasting a very cold and snowy winter in the east because the super nino was more “west-based” than 97-98..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 Made it to a high of 62 here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 January was a coast to coast torch.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The large area of 90+ degree SSTs north of Australia with convection firing over it back in November should have been a huge red flag that the entire global heat budget and wavetrain forcing was going to get altered in a very big way. The same thing happened back in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño, when ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November and certain people were still using 57-58, 02-03, and 09-10 as “analogs” and forecasting a very cold and snowy winter in the east because the super nino was more “west-based” than 97-98..... Then the PV strengthening in Jan (after showing some signs of splitting in Dec) and becoming record strength sealed our fate with the crazy ++++AO and +NAO. In terms of sensible weather it was like 01-02 and 97-98 blended together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Good news for snow lovers on the board..planning on moving my snowthrower to the back corner of the garage this week for the summer ..which means it'll probably snow again this winter.. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Tomorrow and Wednesday will remain unseasonably mild, though nowhere near as warm as today was. Afterward, cooler air will arrive. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +7.25 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.667. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 3, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 23, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.986 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.818. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 85% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.0°. Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, tomcatct said: Good news for snow lovers on the board..planning on moving my snowthrower to the back corner of the garage this week for the summer ..which means it'll probably snow again this winter.. I'm thinking of moving all my stuff back to the shed-takes up room in the garage and it's just collecting dust at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 EURO WEEKLIES continue to Burn the Fern at about +4 for the next 6 week average. At this rate we'll have to have Walter Cronkite interrupt AS THE WORLD BURNS by saying: GW fired three shots at the Earth today as it revolved around the sun. First reports say the wounds to the Earth may have been fatal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 11 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Then the PV strengthening in Jan (after showing some signs of splitting in Dec) and becoming record strength sealed our fate with the crazy ++++AO and +NAO. The signs definitely were there at the end of November that we were in big trouble, they just didn’t become really glaring until mid-December when it was blatantly obvious that we were pulling onto a road to nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 With the very early start to the growing season (3+ weeks early) in the Mid-Atlantic/South I think there could be a destructive freeze in late March or early April if the AO flips by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 The last 5 days of February are averaging 41.5degs., or 3.5degs. AN. Month to date is +5.4[40.3]. February should end near +5.3[40.8], or 4th. Place. The 06Z, GFS is averaging 42degs., or 2.5degs. AN over the first 12 days of March with 70's possible near March 05. There is a slight advertisement for some snow (TRACE) during the four day cold period of 2/28---3/02. 48* here at 6am. 47* at 7am. 49* by Noon, was 50* briefly. 52* by 2pm. 49* by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 This was the warmest 12-22 to 2-24 period on record at 40.1 degrees in NYC. It was also the 5th lowest snowfall total at 2.3”. Last year over this period was 10th lowest at 3.6”. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 22 to Feb 24 Missing Count 1 2020-02-24 40.1 0 2 1932-02-24 39.8 0 3 2006-02-24 39.6 0 4 2017-02-24 39.5 0 5 2012-02-24 39.3 0 - 1998-02-24 39.3 0 6 2002-02-24 39.2 0 7 1990-02-24 38.8 0 8 1937-02-24 38.7 0 9 1933-02-24 38.6 0 10 1950-02-24 38.5 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Dec 22 to Feb 24 Missing Count 1 1998-02-24 0.5 0 2 1919-02-24 0.8 0 3 1890-02-24 1.0 0 4 1959-02-24 1.9 0 5 2020-02-24 2.3 0 6 1990-02-24 2.4 0 7 1992-02-24 2.5 0 8 1973-02-24 2.6 0 - 1932-02-24 2.6 0 9 2002-02-24 3.5 0 10 2019-02-24 3.6 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Morning thoughts... 1. The CFSv2 continues its evolution toward a warmer outlook for March as it moves deeper into its skillful range. 2. As of 8 am, Atlanta has received 18.59" precipitation this year. Only 1883 (19.04") and 1936 (18.80") had more through February 25. Atlanta's trace of snow this winter also exceeds last winter's figure of 0.0". 3. Over the next 72 hours, Caribou will reach and then exceed 100" seasonal snowfall for the 4th consecutive winter. 4. With a 51° high temperature earlier today, New York City remains on track for its 3rd February in the last 4 years with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now