snowman19 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are a little early this year. Our lowest annual readings just above or below 10% are usually in March or April. If we actually go La Niña/-PDO this spring, summer, fall....hello SE ridge on roids and epic blowtorch. I really hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: was down to 22 here and 18 the night before-at least that will keep trees dormant and bugs at bay. I was 28 last night and there were still a ton of bugs flying around in the park today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Today was yet another unseasonably mild day in an unseasonably mild February. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 60°; Boston: 58°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 56°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 56°; and, Washington, DC: 59°. Tomorrow will likely see similar warmth in much of the region. Overall, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +5.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.926 from 1990. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 2, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.818 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.670. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 76% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Today was yet another unseasonably mild day in an unseasonably mild February. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 60°; Boston: 58°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 56°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 56°; and, Washington, DC: 59°. Tomorrow will likely see similar warmth in much of the region. Overall, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +5.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.926 from 1990. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 2, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.818 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.670. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 76% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Any 8-ball ideas on how March could look for us snow-wise? Any chance of a 12"+ incher? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 The last 6 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +5.0[39.8]. February should end near +5.1[40.4]. 41* here at 6am. 43* by 9am. 50* by Noon. The first 11 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS} 42.5degs., or about 3degs. AN. All models are snow less and the EURO looks like it wants to hit 70 in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Black ice is possible across Suffolk with dense frog and temperatures below freezing. MacArthur/ISP FOG 31 31 100 CALM 30.06F VSB 1/4 Stony Brook N/A 36 36 100 S5 N/A WCI 32 Shirley FAIR 32 30 92 CALM 30.08S FOG Mt Sinai Harb N/A N/A N/A N/A S8 N/A Westhampton CLOUDY 21 20 96 CALM 30.09S East Hampton CLOUDY 25 24 96 CALM 30.08S FOG Special Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 516 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020 NYZ078>081-241300- Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk- Southeastern Suffolk- 516 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020 Patchy dense fog has developed across portions of Suffolk County early this morning. In addition to reduced visibilities, with temperatures near or below freezing, black ice is also possible this morning, especially on bridges and overpasses. Use caution on the roads early this morning and leave plenty of distance between cars, keeping in mind that any pavement that appears damp may be icy. Fog should lift shortly after sunrise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 8 hours ago, TriPol said: Any 8-ball ideas on how March could look for us snow-wise? Any chance of a 12"+ incher? Likely below to much below normal snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Thickest frost of the season here in SW Suffolk. Temperature at 33 degrees but the there is a thick layer of frost on cars and the roofs. Almost feels like freezing rain on the cars with the dense fog until a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 If it’s not going to snow at least let’s semi torch into mid 50’s. jacket weather later... currently 39 and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 14 hours ago, tdp146 said: I was 28 last night and there were still a ton of bugs flying around in the park today. crazy-the only thing I am seeing here is the ladybugs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: crazy-the only thing I am seeing here is the ladybugs There were moths out last night. Just crazy, I’ve never seen that this early. They normally don’t come back out until late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Feels like a spring morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 After the top 2 warmest Februaries on record in 2017 and 2018, we are on track for another top 10 warmest finish. There have been 7 out of 11 warmer than normal Februaries since 2010. .............EWR....NYC....LGA 2020.....+5.5...+5.0....+4.4...so far 2019....+1.4.....+0.9...+0.5 2018....+6.8....+6.7.....+7.1 2017....+7.0....+6.3.....+7.5 2016....+2.5....+2.4.....+3.1 2015....-12.0...-11.4....-11.1 2014....-4.7.....-3.7.....-4.0 2013....-0.5.....-1.4.....-0.8 2012....+5.9....+5.6....+6.1 2011....+1.8.....+0.7.....+1.2 2010....-1.4......-2.2......-1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 12:15 PM, Brian5671 said: LR forecasting is difficult at best. Look at the super strong PV this year plus the warm water north of Australia-both were late breaking events that helped cause us to be warm and snowless. Good luck seeing something like that more than a month out.... I think the Australia situation was one where people weren't paying attention or connecting the dots in retrospect. I don't think a lot of people, at least here in the states anyway, look that closely at Australia to see whether the rainy season advancement was delayed or not. Once it was clear that was going to happen and solar radiation was going to be much higher than usual at a time when the IOD was collapsing, in retrospect that was a big flag that we should have seen coming. Even as someone who had a mild winter forecasted, I wasn't nearly warm enough and I think it's because I was too slow to the draw on recognizing that piece and wave train alteration accordingly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 The Meteorological Winter will end somewhere between +3.91 and +4.07 degrees. The folly of LR Forecasting exposed: If a Top Ten Warmest and Top Ten Least Snowiest Winter does not give itself away ahead of time , why would a 1 or 2 +/- SD winter do so? As a long as we keep using a bogus 30 year normal, just say AN T's when asked. It is like playing craps and substituting loaded dice when it is your turn. At any rate, the GFS has 9 out of the first 11 days of March at a high of at least 50. Hope my sea breeze gives me the 80's when the City is in the 90's since I stopped at 52 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Already 50* out here. It was 23 this morning when I got up at 4 am I think it'll hit 60* today down here. We got to 59 yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 This has to be one the biggest PDO reversals from December to February. The record ridge north of Hawaii and strong +EPO resulted in the big SST departure shift. One of the strongest La Niña-like patterns without out an official La Niña. This is what can happen with record SST’s from the date line to the Indian Ocean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 50 here Disgusting 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Morning thoughts... 1. Another mild day is in store. At 10 am, temperatures included: Allentown: 45°; Baltimore: 47°; Boston: 52°; Bridgeport: 44°; Danbury: 49°; Islip: 45°; New York City: 50°; Newark: 49°; Philadelphia: 45°; Poughkeepsie: 47°; Washington, DC: 46°; Westhampton: 49°; and, White Plains: 44°. Temperatures should top out well in the 50s, even in areas that saw a thick frost and minimum temperatures in the lower and middle 20s this morning. 2. The pattern remains hostile for moderate (4" or greater) or significant (6" or greater) snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. 3. January-February 2020 is on track to become 7th January-February case with a mean temperature of 39.0° or above in New York City and the 11th such case for Philadelphia. At Boston, 2020 is likely to surpass January-February 2002 as the warmest January-February period on record. Currently, Boston is on track for a two-month mean temperature of 37.5°-37.7°. The existing January-February record is 36.5°, which was established in January-February 2002. 4. The CFSv2 has continued its evolution toward a warmer March forecast in the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... 1. Another mild day is in store. At 10 am, temperatures included: Allentown: 45°; Baltimore: 47°; Boston: 52°; Bridgeport: 44°; Danbury: 49°; Islip: 45°; New York City: 50°; Newark: 49°; Philadelphia: 45°; Poughkeepsie: 47°; Washington, DC: 46°; Westhampton: 49°; and, White Plains: 44°. Temperatures should top out well in the 50s, even in areas that saw a thick frost and minimum temperatures in the lower and middle 20s this morning. 2. The pattern remains hostile for moderate (4" or greater) or significant (6" or greater) snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. 3. January-February 2020 is on track to become 7th January-February case with a mean temperature of 39.0° or above in New York City and the 11th such case for Philadelphia. At Boston, 2020 is likely to surpass January-February 2002 as the warmest January-February period on record. Currently, Boston is on track for a two-month mean temperature of 37.5°-37.7°. The existing January-February record is 36.5°, which was established in January-February 2002. 4. The CFSv2 has continued its evolution toward a warmer March forecast in the East. I think it is safe to call this 'winter' dead. The ecological world is waking back up in a big way from a restless slumber this year. This could actually reverse the trend of the past few years where we had a delayed leaf out to one that is almost epically early if the current trends keep up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 56 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I think it is safe to call this 'winter' dead. The ecological world is waking back up in a big way from a restless slumber this year. This could actually reverse the trend of the past few years where we had a delayed leaf out to one that is almost epically early if the current trends keep up. 1989-90 had a very warm Jan/Feb/March-I remember lawns being cut in late March that year....this could be another spring like that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Wow. Already at 60 here. 10 minute ride to the beach and it's 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Should make it to 62 or 63 today. Hard to believe two years ago we hit 80 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 A warmup of 40* in six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: I think it is safe to call this 'winter' dead. The ecological world is waking back up in a big way from a restless slumber this year. This could actually reverse the trend of the past few years where we had a delayed leaf out to one that is almost epically early if the current trends keep up. I put in 400 daffodil bulbs last fall and they are way up. I’m worried about the cool down zapping any potential blooms. I would think we see everything at least a month ahead this year over the last several Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I put in 400 daffodil bulbs last fall and they are way up. I’m worried about the cool down zapping any potential blooms. I would think we see everything at least a month ahead this year over the last several I don't know about a month. March of 2012 was extremely warm and leafout was about 2 to 3 weeks early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Without a doubt I'll be driving with the roof off later today. I've been able to do a ton of work on our vehicles this past weekend (still wish we had a garage) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I put in 400 daffodil bulbs last fall and they are way up. I’m worried about the cool down zapping any potential blooms. I would think we see everything at least a month ahead this year over the last several My plants started coming up more than a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I don't know about a month. March of 2012 was extremely warm and leafout was about 2 to 3 weeks early. 2012 started out exceptionally dry as well though, likely slowing down leaf out. March 2012 only had 0.96 inch in the bucket at the end when normal is 4.36. February likewise 1.37 inches when 3.09 inches is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: 2012 started out exceptionally dry as well though, likely slowing down leaf out. March 2012 only had 0.96 inch in the bucket at the end when normal is 4.36. February likewise 1.37 inches when 3.09 inches is normal. The models only have us getting about an inch over the next 2 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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