Allsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will find out next fall and winter whether this was another two year stuck pattern like 2009-2011, 2013-2015 and 2016-2018. Two year stuck winter patterns have been the maximum since 2010. Hopefully, this isn’t a throwback to the longer snow droughts of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. Yeah the 16-18 ninas were snow friendly to us. They are normally not that snowy historically. That’s if we go into a two year Niña. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 After the record positive Arctic Oscillation print of last week, we now are > +2sigma zonal wind anomaly at 10mb. PV is an absolute beast this year. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: @Isotherm is the best long range forecasters out there. His unbiased outlooks are one of the best attributes. His outlook is the only one that matters Yep, I'm skipping JB and all the Twitter cold/ice age stuff going forward.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: @Isotherm is the best long range forecasters out there. His unbiased outlooks are one of the best attributes. His outlook is the only one that matters He thinks we have a chance in the first week of March. He is a good forecaster but he also busts just like the rest of them. No one is perfect but Isotherm has been right for 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He thinks we have a chance in the first week of March. He is a good forecaster but he also busts just like the rest of them. No one is perfect but Isotherm has been right for 2 winters. LR forecasting is difficult at best. Look at the super strong PV this year plus the warm water north of Australia-both were late breaking events that helped cause us to be warm and snowless. Good luck seeing something like that more than a month out.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He thinks we have a chance in the first week of March. He is a good forecaster but he also busts just like the rest of them. No one is perfect but Isotherm has been right for 2 winters. He has demonstrated that seasonal forecasts can be skillful. That says a lot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yep, I'm skipping JB and all the Twitter cold/ice age stuff going forward.... JB has been a disaster last several years and people are finally calling him out on it. I can't believe there are still some who believe this global cooling nonsense that he's been harping on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: JB has been a disaster last several years and people are finally calling him out on it. I can't believe there are still some who believe this global cooling nonsense that he's been harping on. I'll give him a little credit this year-he bailed early and actually said that the warmth of the last 5 years needs to be respected. I suspect his forecast next winter will be a bit more humble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, NittanyWx said: After the record positive Arctic Oscillation print of last week, we now are > +2sigma zonal wind anomaly at 10mb. PV is an absolute beast this year. The SPV is forecasted to continue to roar right into March, Kiss of Death..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: He thinks we have a chance in the first week of March. He is a good forecaster but he also busts just like the rest of them. No one is perfect but Isotherm has been right for 2 winters. More often then not he is correct. Let’s not forget how he nailed the uber blocking of March 2018 after the SSW. He has incredible skill in long range forecasting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 21 hours ago, HailMan06 said: @forkyfork I have a question. The Bermuda high that summer was positioned so far north that we were getting a lot of easterly flow. Were we getting the northerly edge of the Trades? pretty much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 hours ago, PB-99 said: GREAT FORECAST. 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Tremendous. While it's not what we all wanted, it's literally spot on. 4 hours ago, psv88 said: Incredible Tom, well done! 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: @Isotherm is the best long range forecasters out there. His unbiased outlooks are one of the best attributes. His outlook is the only one that matters 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: He has demonstrated that seasonal forecasts can be skillful. That says a lot. 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: More often then not he is correct. Let’s not forget how he nailed the uber blocking of March 2018 after the SSW. He has incredible skill in long range forecasting. Thanks, all, for the comments - much appreciated. Hopefully, we can secure one event before the end of the season. We will have a brief window before the base state resumes. On the discussion of the performance of the seasonal models from last autumn: from my perspective, the key take-away there is not necessarily to buy into the guidance verbatim or all the time, but that they are invaluable tools to be employed in the total picture. The seasonal models, by contrast [including the ECMWF] performed rather poorly in the 2018-19 pre-season forecast. But there were certain physical mechanisms this year that supported the seasonal models prognostications. So, I think it's a matter of stepping back and comparing the seasonal guidance to observations, and posing the inquiry: does this make sense? From last autumn, the seasonal model projections made a lot of sense meteorologically. The "trick" of course is deciphering when the models will perform well / are on the correct path, and when they are not. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, Isotherm said: On the discussion of the performance of the seasonal models from last autumn: from my perspective, the key take-away there is not necessarily to buy into the guidance verbatim or all the time, but that they are invaluable tools to be employed in the total picture. The seasonal models, by contrast [including the ECMWF] performed rather poorly in the 2018-19 pre-season forecast. But there were certain physical mechanisms this year that supported the seasonal models prognostications. So, I think it's a matter of stepping back and comparing the seasonal guidance to observations, and posing the inquiry: does this make sense? From last autumn, the seasonal model projections made a lot of sense meteorologically. The "trick" of course is deciphering when the models will perform well / are on the correct path, and when they are not. I agree. Certain signals must just be easier for models to detect in the fall. We often see different models exhibit better skill with one element of the forecast than another. This winter some models did better with the AO and NAO than last year. But while they indicated another year with the ridge north of Hawaii, the strength of the +EPO wasn’t we’ll forecast in advance. Last winter may have come down to the models missing the the fact that the El Niño never was able to couple. Several of us were discussing in the fall of 2018 how the SST configuration wasn’t aligned with the typical El Niño pattern. The SOI fall reversal was also a red flag that seasonal forecasts would struggle. So it’s always a challenge to know exactly what if any forecast elements the seasonal models will have success with. ENSO blog write up on last winter https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Cooler than normal readings are likely tonight and tomorrow. During this time, a storm now bringing snow to parts of the Southeast and lower Middle Atlantic region will pass harmlessly to the south of the snow-starved New York Metro Area. Milder air will return this weekend. As a result, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. More cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. The cold will likely last 4-7 days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +4.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.339. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.859 from 1989. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 28, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm before starting cool near the end of the month. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 19, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.631 (RMM). The February 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.819. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 65% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 11 hours ago, Isotherm said: This winter has continued the theme of "stagnancy" - that is, absent novel forcing mechanisms, we maintain a similar set of indicators, and thus, z500 regimes tend to repeat. For example, the SSTA profile in the Atlantic has been quite similar since 2017, which has been reinforcing the humid/warm summer signal in the East. This winter featured many of the same indicators as 2018-19, and as a result, the mean storm track followed suit. These snowfall departures with respect to normal have a base period of 2008-2018, but still impart the general picture of snowfall anomalies to date [h/t Eric Snodgrass]. Underneath that image is my snowfall anomaly outlook for this winter. The season is not over yet, but I'm quite content to see the anomalies are highly congruous with my pre-season expectations. Upper-Mid-west and northern Maine jackpots. Great job with your forecast... can you share the link (url) to the Accumulated Snowfall Departure map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 25 minutes ago, FXWX said: Great job with your forecast... can you share the link (url) to the Accumulated Snowfall Departure map? He referenced the snowfall departures map to Eric Snodgrass whose Twitter account is: https://twitter.com/snodgrss/status/1230295340005224448 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 6degs. AN. Month to date is +5.5[40.0]. Should be near +5.6[40.9] by the 29th. February will finish in 5th. or as high as 3rd. place. The last 9 days of the Meteorological Winter may add 0.40 to that 39.0, shown below. 22* here at 6am. 25* by 9am. 29* by Noon. 32* by 2pm. 38* by 4pm. Made it to 40* at about 4:30pm here. 39* at 5pm. 35* by 7pm. 33* by 10pm. All models are snow less except that the GFS has snow at 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Today will be one of our rare cold departure days before we warm back up to around 50 degrees over the weekend. NYC is currently in 8th place for warmest winter. The 39.0 degree average is close to +4 for the winter. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.2 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 1990-1991 39.1 0 8 2019-2020 39.0 9 9 1998-1999 38.6 0 10 1948-1949 38.5 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Today will be one of our rare cold departure days before we warm back up to around 50 degrees over the weekend. NYC is currently in 8th place for warmest winter. The 39.0 degree average is close to +4 for the winter. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.2 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 1990-1991 39.1 0 8 2019-2020 39.0 9 9 1998-1999 38.6 0 10 1948-1949 38.5 0 The disproportionate share of winters after 2000 and 2010 stands out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 58 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The disproportionate share of winters after 2000 and 2010 stands out. Yeah, this has easily been our warmest 5 winter period on record. Average winter temperatures near 40 degrees are typical for Richmond, Virginia. https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/climateRECORDS/RIC_AVE_T.pdf Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Departure 2019-2020 39.0 +3.9 2018-2019 36.3 +1.2 2017-2018 36.1 +1.0 2016-2017 39.3 +4.2 2015-2016 41.0 +5.9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 On 2/19/2020 at 1:05 PM, CarLover014 said: 50 here as well. Feels great outside. The high cirrus clouds, if they stick around for awhile will set up for a pretty sunset this evening Had a few great sunsets this week and some bigly yuge sun dogs on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Morning thoughts... The preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is +5.837. That is the third highest value on record. Tomorrow could see the AO approach or exceed the record preliminary value of +6.342, which was set on February 10. Today was also the 4th day during February where the AO was +5.000 or above. Only 1989 (5 days) and 1990 (4 days) had at least 4 such days. The polar vortex remains extraordinarily large and strong. Stratospheric temperatures from 30 mb down to 100 mb are at daily record low figures. Overall, the polar vortex will likely retain its structure and abnormal strength through at least the next 10 days. All of this suggests that the March hemispheric pattern could be somewhat similar in the means to the February one. Below are composite February and March 500 mb patterns for 1989 and 1990 and the February 1-18, 2020 500 mb pattern. Based on the above charts, the cold monthly outlook for March currently shown on the CFSv2 could be suspect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, this has easily been our warmest 5 winter period on record. Average winter temperatures near 40 degrees are typical for Richmond, Virginia. https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/climateRECORDS/RIC_AVE_T.pdf Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Departure 2019-2020 39.0 +3.9 2018-2019 36.3 +1.2 2017-2018 36.1 +1.0 2016-2017 39.3 +4.2 2015-2016 41.0 +5.9 At least Richmond experienced a snow event. As always ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 NYC warmest winters...not counting this year... winter.....ave temp...min temp...30 day snow...total snow...4" snows or largest snow... 1879-80....38.5............7......................................22.7" 1889-90....37.9............7...............17.0"...............24.3"..........6.0".....6.0".....4.0" 1897-98....36.5............8.................8.9"...............21.1"..........5.0" 1905-06....36.7............7...............11.5"...............20.0"..........6.0".....6.5".....5.0" 1908-09....36.7............5...............11.4"...............20.3"..........5.1".....4.0" 1912-13....37.2..........11...............11.5"...............15.3"........11.4" 1918-19....36.6..........10.................2.7"................3.8"..........1.4" 1931-32....40.1..........15.................2.1"................5.3"...........2.0" 1932-33....37.8..........11...............15.4"...............27.0"..........7.2"...10.0" 1936-37....37.9..........13.................8.8"...............15.6"..........5.7" 1948-49....38.5..........10...............26.8"...............46.6"..........5.3"...16.0".....4.5".....4.6".....9.4" 1949-50....37.5............6.................8.9"...............13.8"..........3.8" 1951-52....37.0............8.................8.6"...............19.7"..........5.8".....4.0" 1952-53....38.1..........12.................7.5"...............15.1"..........4.5" 1953-54....37.4............7...............12.7"...............15.8"..........8.6" 1974-75....37.5..........15...............11.3"...............13.1"..........7.8" 1982-83....37.9..........12...............23.4"...............27.2"........17.6" 1990-91....39.2..........10...............15.6"...............24.9"..........7.2".....5.7".....8.9" 1991-92....37.2..........11.................9.4"...............12.6"..........6.2" 1994-95....37.1............6...............11.6"...............11.8"........10.8" 1996-97....37.8............4.................6.1"...............10.0"..........3.5" 1997-98....39.6..........14.................5.0".................5.5"..........5.0" 1998-99....38.7............9.................6.5"...............12.7"..........4.5" 2001-02....41.5..........19.................3.5".................3.5"..........3.0" 2005-06....37.3..........14...............28.9"...............40.0"..........5.8"...26.9" 2006-07....36.5............8.................7.8"...............12.4"..........5.5" 2011-12....40.5..........13..................4.5"................7.4"..........4.3" 2012-13....36.9..........11...............13.7"...............26.1"........11.4".....4.0" 2015-16....41.0...........-1...............31.9"...............32.8"........27.5" 2016-17....39.3..........14...............11.0"...............20.5"..........9.4"...7.6"...5.1" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 27 and cold here in yonkers. Long time lurker decided to make an account. This winter was by far the worst so far in my life. Just no snow to even talk about I think we got 3 inches back in January and couple of 1 inch snow falls. Amazing what bad luck we’ve had. Bring on spring now, this winter is a dud for sure. I’m calling for no more snow for the rest of the winter just rain and cutters! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 55 minutes ago, SnowIsMyName said: 27 and cold here in yonkers. Long time lurker decided to make an account. This winter was by far the worst so far in my life. Just no snow to even talk about I think we got 3 inches back in January and couple of 1 inch snow falls. Amazing what bad luck we’ve had. Bring on spring now, this winter is a dud for sure. I’m calling for no more snow for the rest of the winter just rain and cutters! Welcome Tony. 2 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Beautiful weekend is in store. 50's and a lot of sun. Probably will drop the roof and cruise... If only there were more car shows this time of year... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 least amount of seasonal snowfall up to Feb. 21st... 1997-98.....0.5" 1918-19.....1.1" 1972-73.....2.6" 1991-92.....3.2" 2001-02.....3.5" 1888-89.....4.5" 2006-07.....4.6" 1931-32.....4.7" 2019-20.....4.8" 1988-89.....5.6" 1958-59.....5.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Welcome Tony. Such a stupid game 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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