WarrenCtyWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 It's been a while since we've had a widespread 100+ degree day, a la 7/6/10 or 7/22/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Cold and dry here in armonk 30 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Worst winter ever It's insane how nothing is working out. I have never saw a winter like this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 41.5degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +6.1[40.5]. February should be near +5.5[40.7] by the 28th. The last 10 days of February are averaging (0Z,GFS) 38.5degs., so February should end near +4.5[39.8]. The first 6 days of March were a toasty 46degs.! Only the CMC has some snow near the 27th. 30* here at 6am. 33* by 9am. 35* by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 9 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said: It's been a while since we've had a widespread 100+ degree day, a la 7/6/10 or 7/22/11. Last July was really close. 7-21-19 set or tied multiple record high temperatures at 99 degrees. Since the dew points were so high, the heat indices were similar to 7-22-11. The month also finished top 10 warmest around +3. JFK came within 1 degree of the all-time highest heat index at 114 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Worst winter ever It's insane how nothing is working out. I have never saw a winter like this before what? Yesterday you said it was coming now it's not? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 This is the same winter snowfall pattern as last year. It’s 9th lowest in snowfall and last winter finished 7th. Identical storm track pattern of cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppressed snowstorms. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.7 0 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 2019-2020 4.8 10 10 1989-1990 5.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is the same winter snowfall pattern as last year. It’s 9th lowest in snowfall and last winter finished 7th. Identical storm track pattern of cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppressed snowstorms. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.7 0 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 2019-2020 4.8 10 10 1989-1990 5.0 0 How did 1997-1998 finish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: what? Yesterday you said it was coming now it's not? Not anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not anymore What what what? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 8pm. Low around 30. North wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=249&y=76&site=mhx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=249&map_y=76#.Xk6HAyN_OHs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just try this one! I estimate a July analog to December 2015 would consist of 34 straight AN days that would average 76/92 or 84* for the period. Laugh Now---Die Later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How did 1997-1998 finish? 97-98 finished the whole snowfall season 7th lowest. They had the benefit of a -AO for DJFM that finally clicked for them on 3-22 with 5.0”. But this year we continue with the record SPV and +AO. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1973-04-30 2.8 0 2 2002-04-30 3.5 0 3 1919-04-30 3.8 0 4 2020-04-30 4.8 72 5 1901-04-30 5.1 2 6 1932-04-30 5.3 0 7 1998-04-30 5.5 0 8 2012-04-30 7.4 0 9 1989-04-30 8.1 0 - 1878-04-30 8.1 0 10 1951-04-30 9.3 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 56 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is the same winter snowfall pattern as last year. It’s 9th lowest in snowfall and last winter finished 7th. Identical storm track pattern of cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppressed snowstorms. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.7 0 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 2019-2020 4.8 10 10 1989-1990 5.0 0 Only difference was we were colder last winter because the Pv wasn’t as strong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Only difference was we were colder last winter because the Pv wasn’t as strong. I finished with 15 inches last winter. This year I might not even finish above 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Only difference was we were colder last winter because the Pv wasn’t as strong. That just goes to show how important the storm track and teleconnections are for snow here. Both winters featured that strong ridge stuck just north of Hawaii. So we had similar DJF snowfall even though this winter was 3 degrees warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I finished with 15 inches last winter. This year I might not even finish above 5. It happens. We have been living a charmed life in the snow department since 2010. Let’s just hope this isn’t the start of another string of ratters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It happens. We have been living a charmed life in the snow department since 2010. Let’s just hope this isn’t the start of another string of ratters. One model (can't remember which) is showing a strong Nina starting this fall-that would not be a good development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Only difference was we were colder last winter because the Pv wasn’t as strong. What's interesting here is the PV-could anyone have predicted its strength last fall? Wildcards like that can sink a forecast. On the flip side, 2010-11 was a strong Nina and many forecasts were not great-yet we had one of the snowiest 40 days in history due to some well timed blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It happens. We have been living a charmed life in the snow department since 2010. Let’s just hope this isn’t the start of another string of ratters. This Niña-like background state with a struggling El Niño hasn’t worked for snowfall the last two winters. The ridge just stays stuck north of Hawaii leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. We may need a stronger El Niño or official La Niña in coming winters to boost our snowfall potential again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: One model (can't remember which) is showing a strong Nina starting this fall-that would not be a good development. If the last two winters have taught us anything it’s that long range is a wild card still. Who really knows what’s going to happen next winter. I think the benefit of a strong Niña would help cool the ocean waters in the warm phases of the mjo. Even if it means a bad winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: This Niña-like background state with a struggling El Niño hasn’t worked for snowfall the last two winters. The ridge just stays stuck north of Hawaii leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. We may need a stronger El Niño or official La Niña in coming winters to boost our snowfall potential again. This winter has continued the theme of "stagnancy" - that is, absent novel forcing mechanisms, we maintain a similar set of indicators, and thus, z500 regimes tend to repeat. For example, the SSTA profile in the Atlantic has been quite similar since 2017, which has been reinforcing the humid/warm summer signal in the East. This winter featured many of the same indicators as 2018-19, and as a result, the mean storm track followed suit. These snowfall departures with respect to normal have a base period of 2008-2018, but still impart the general picture of snowfall anomalies to date [h/t Eric Snodgrass]. Underneath that image is my snowfall anomaly outlook for this winter. The season is not over yet, but I'm quite content to see the anomalies are highly congruous with my pre-season expectations. Upper-Mid-west and northern Maine jackpots. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Isotherm said: This winter has continued the theme of "stagnancy" - that is, absent novel forcing mechanisms, we maintain a similar set of indicators, and thus, z500 regimes tend to repeat. For example, the SSTA profile in the Atlantic has been quite similar since 2017, which has been reinforcing the humid/warm summer signal in the East. This winter featured many of the same indicators as 2018-19, and as a result, the mean storm track followed suit. These snowfall departures with respect to normal have a base period of 2008-2018, but still impart the general picture of snowfall anomalies to date [h/t Eric Snodgrass]. Underneath that image is my snowfall anomaly outlook for this winter. The season is not over yet, but I'm quite content to see the anomalies are highly congruous with my pre-season expectations. Upper-Mid-west and northern Maine jackpots. GREAT FORECAST. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, PB-99 said: GREAT FORECAST. Tremendous. While it's not what we all wanted, it's literally spot on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: What's interesting here is the PV-could anyone have predicted its strength last fall? Wildcards like that can sink a forecast. On the flip side, 2010-11 was a strong Nina and many forecasts were not great-yet we had one of the snowiest 40 days in history due to some well timed blocking. Most of the seasonal models had a strong +NAO +AO for the winter from the fall forecasts. Some research points to the record +IOD late in the fall into early winter. While several seasonal models had the strong ridge north of Hawaii, they all underestimated the strength of the +EPO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 24 minutes ago, Isotherm said: This winter has continued the theme of "stagnancy" - that is, absent novel forcing mechanisms, we maintain a similar set of indicators, and thus, z500 regimes tend to repeat. For example, the SSTA profile in the Atlantic has been quite similar since 2017, which has been reinforcing the humid/warm summer signal in the East. This winter featured many of the same indicators as 2018-19, and as a result, the mean storm track followed suit. These snowfall departures with respect to normal have a base period of 2008-2018, but still impart the general picture of snowfall anomalies to date [h/t Eric Snodgrass]. Underneath that image is my snowfall anomaly outlook for this winter. The season is not over yet, but I'm quite content to see the anomalies are highly congruous with my pre-season expectations. Upper-Mid-west and northern Maine jackpots. Incredible Tom, well done! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Can we have next years forecast now so I know which weather service subscriptions I can cancel. Thanks in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: This Niña-like background state with a struggling El Niño hasn’t worked for snowfall the last two winters. The ridge just stays stuck north of Hawaii leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. We may need a stronger El Niño or official La Niña in coming winters to boost our snowfall potential again. Agree. A weak enso state has not worked well for us the last two years. I believe this year will go down as a nada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 @Isotherm is the best long range forecasters out there. His unbiased outlooks are one of the best attributes. His outlook is the only one that matters 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Agree. A weak enso state has not worked well for us the last two years. I believe this year will go down as a nada. We will find out next fall and winter whether this was another two year stuck pattern like 2009-2011, 2013-2015 and 2016-2018. Two year stuck winter patterns have been the maximum since 2010. Hopefully, this isn’t a throwback to the longer snow droughts of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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