February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I just went by Upton's forecast which called for an all day rain starting around 10am...got some sprinkles here and that was about it.

I hate when the forecast just says

 

Rain.

 

Like is it heavy light showery periods?

Now it says 40% chance of light rain

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Very low. Great stat as always @bluewave. I read a tweet on when the Ao is this high our biggest snowfall comes in March. This doesn’t mean I’m calling for a big event but 2.6 is a low bar.

 

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I've cited the same stat several times recently, any time someone discards March as a spring month.

It is nice to see the actual monthly totals in the  four recent years it has happened. As your chart above plainly shows 4 of the 5 last March did not win out with paltry totals during sub standard winters like this one. We're basically talking double digit totals each March, the exception being 2017 which was close with 9.7 inches. Five of Six seems more than plausible at this point.

I'm also interested this March to see if it can end up being colder again than February for the third time in four years. March has only been colder than February 7 times in 151 years of record keeping in NYC and three times in four years has never happened. It looks like February's average temperature wise will also leave a very low bar, one that a slightly below normal (1°-2°) March may be able to beat. It would be another first in the weird 2000's.

 

Yeah, it will be interesting to see if we can pick up any snow this March. The lack of measurable snowfall since January 20th is different from recent years. This is the first time since 2002 with no measurable snowfall during the peak of the season.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 20	Missing Count
2020-02-20	T	3
2019-02-20	2.9	0
2018-02-20	5.9	0
2017-02-20	10.4	0
2016-02-20	31.5	0
2015-02-20	24.0	0
2014-02-20	42.1	0
2013-02-20	13.7	0
2012-02-20	4.5	0
2011-02-20	25.8	0
2010-02-20	17.3	0
2009-02-20	7.3	0
2008-02-20	2.8	0
2007-02-20	4.3	0
2006-02-20	26.9	0
2005-02-20	15.5	0
2004-02-20	11.0	0
2003-02-20	28.6	0
2002-02-20	T	0

 

[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like a bust on today's rain event-close to nothing here and radar is dry almost everywhere

I was in Ridgefield from about 1pm and it started misting as I got there. From there to home it hasn't stopped and has been soaking wet since, it's just north of you.

[NYCweatherNOW]

10 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I was in Ridgefield from about 1pm and it started misting as I got there. From there to home it hasn't stopped and has been soaking wet since, it's just north of you.

Bust haven’t gotten a drop just a bit of mist. Just the northern area got a little and Long Island got a brief downpour. The main event was in north New England 

[donsutherland1]

Another short period of cold is now poised to move into the region this week. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. More cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present. If some past cases with a strongly positive AO during the first half of March are representative, the cold would likely last around a week before warmth returns.

Winter 2019-2020 became the 14th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 18. Mean total snowfall for the 13 prior cases was 9.3" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 54% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1920-21 with 18.6" seasonal snowfall.

Winter 2019-2020 is also the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 18. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

A snowfall could affect parts of North Carolina during the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Parts of eastern North Carolina have the potential to see 1"-3" snow with a few locally higher amounts. This area of 1"-3" snow includes Greenville and Wilmington. The NAM and GFS have much higher amounts, but no EPS members currently support such amounts. Thus, for now, they appear unlikely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -18.16 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.743. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.296 from 1959.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 26, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

On February 17, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.883 (RMM). The February 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.836.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 62% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

[donsutherland1]

Early morning thoughts...

1. Occasionally, storms bring snow to the Southeast while avoiding the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during strong AO+ regimes in February. February 1989, which saw two storms impact the lower Middle Atlantic and Southeastern areas during the final week of the month is one example.

2. At a time when the AO is poised to challenge or break daily records set in 1989, a snowfall is becoming increasingly likely for parts of North Carolina tomorrow into Friday. Parts of eastern North Carolina have the potential to see 1"-3" snow with a few locally higher amounts. This area of 1"-3" snow includes Greenville and perhaps Wilmington. The GFS, with its excessive snowfall amounts, is discounted on account of its noted cold bias.

3. The last time Greenville had a measurable snowfall was December 9, 2018 when 2.0" fell. The last time Greenville had measurable snow in February was February 25, 2015 when 1.6" was recorded. The February 24-25, 2015 storm dumped a total of 4.1" snow.

4. The last time Wilmington had a measurable snowfall was January 4, 2018 when 0.4" fell. The January 3-4, 2018 storm brought 3.8" snow. The last time Wilmington had measurable snow in February was February 24, 2015 when 0.3" was recorded.

5. No significant snowfalls appear likely through at least February 24 in such cities as Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or 3degs. AN. (used 32/45 for today)

Month to date is  +6.2[40.5].         Should be about +5.2[40.0] by the 27th.

The last 11 days of February are averaging 40.1, so February should end near +5.0[40.3], 5th Place.    No snow action except near the 27th.

44* here at 6am.     43* by 8am.       42* at 9am.         46* by  Noon.        48* by 2pm.     49* by 4pm.      47* at 5pm.     39* by 9pm.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Early morning thoughts...

1. Occasionally, storms bring snow to the Southeast while avoiding the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during strong AO+ regimes in February. February 1989, which saw two storms impact the lower Middle Atlantic and Southeastern areas during the final week of the month is one example.

2. At a time when the AO is poised to challenge or break daily records set in 1989, a snowfall is becoming increasingly likely for parts of North Carolina tomorrow into Friday. Parts of eastern North Carolina have the potential to see 1"-3" snow with a few locally higher amounts. This area of 1"-3" snow includes Greenville and perhaps Wilmington. The GFS, with its excessive snowfall amounts, is discounted on account of its noted cold bias.

3. The last time Greenville had a measurable snowfall was December 9, 2018 when 2.0" fell. The last time Greenville had measurable snow in February was February 25, 2015 when 1.6" was recorded. The February 24-25, 2015 storm dumped a total of 4.1" snow.

4. The last time Wilmington had a measurable snowfall was January 4, 2018 when 0.4" fell. The January 3-4, 2018 storm brought 3.8" snow. The last time Wilmington had measurable snow in February was February 24, 2015 when 0.3" was recorded.

5. No significant snowfalls appear likely through at least February 24 in such cities as Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

Snow prospects look next to nil through 2/29. The overnight ensembles lend more credence to the first week of March cold shot being only transient. That progression would lead to a very quick mild up after a brief cold shot. It may get very mild by mid-month....

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Snow prospects look next to nil through 3/29. The overnight ensembles lend more credence to the first week of March cold shot being only transient. That progression would lead to a very quick mild up after a brief cold shot. It may get very mild by mid-month....

You can see how quickly the models pull the ridge back to the Aleutians. This strong +EPO/-PDO is different from recent  years. So this March may turn out warmer than we have experienced from 2017 to 2019.

 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Snow prospects look next to nil through 3/29. The overnight ensembles lend more credence to the first week of March cold shot being only transient. That progression would lead to a very quick mild up after a brief cold shot. It may get very mild by mid-month....

The ECMWF has < 1” through 2/29 0z.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see how quickly the models pull the ridge back to the Aleutians. This strong +EPO/-PDO is different from recent  years. So this March may turn out warmer than we have experienced from 2017 to 2019.

 

Yep, it’s short lived and the models once again overdue the -EPO/+PNA in the long range, PAC jet rages back. Agreed about the -PDO

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, it’s short lived and the models once again overdue the -EPO/+PNA in the long range, PAC jet rages back. Agreed about the -PDO

We'll likely have a 5-7 day window in early March-if we can't get it done by then, it's lights out after that once the torch comes

[PB-99]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, it’s short lived and the models once again overdue the -EPO/+PNA in the long range, PAC jet rages back. Agreed about the -PDO

 

The trough wants to back up into the midsection, so you end up cold and dry for 5 days and then storms will cut.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is a 5 to 7  day transient cold dry shot

 

 

 

There is nothing but LP to your north which will allow storms to cut in the longer range.

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

just an awful pattern.   It really doesn't get any worse.   At least 01-02 and 11-12 were sunny dry torches all winter

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

just an awful pattern.   It really doesn't get any worse.   At least 01-02 and 11-12 were sunny dry torches all winter

The nightmare is almost over. I'm actually a lot more optimistic about this spring.

Right now it doesn't look like a repeat of past years' cold/wet blocky springs. 

This is definitely my worst winter ever. Worse than 11/12 & 01/02 which were a lot less murky. Snow wise it's about the same. This year we got the worst/ugliest pattern possible with the worst teleconnections you could find. 

Honestly the warmth & lack of snow easily could've been worse but the pattern gave us just slightly better conditions on this side of the globe vs Europe which saw the warmest winter ever. 

[forkyfork]

hello SE ridges 

[the_other_guy]

49 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The nightmare is almost over. I'm actually a lot more optimistic about this spring.

Right now it doesn't look like a repeat of past years' cold/wet blocky springs. 

This is definitely my worst winter ever. Worse than 11/12 & 01/02 which were a lot less murky. Snow wise it's about the same. This year we got the worst/ugliest pattern possible with the worst teleconnections you could find. 

Honestly the warmth & lack of snow easily could've been worse but the pattern gave us just slightly better conditions on this side of the globe vs Europe which saw the warmest winter ever. 

I am not optimistic about spring

There is no way we could continue +5+6 indefinitely

And for some reason we are to believe that the pattern that has been stuck in place for the past couple of winters won’t play out in March/Aprillike it always has... a warm spring would be the only part of this re run that is not a re run

 

Frankly, I just dont believe it. Time will tell

[Santa Claus]

It is very nice out today.  About 50 F, nice warm sun, bit breezy.

[snowman19]

53 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

hello SE ridges 

SE ridge city. Those SSTAs are blazing. Can you say positive feedback loop? I have a bad feeling this spring/summer/fall is going to torch big time

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

SE ridge city. Those SSTAs are blazing. Can you say positive feedback loop? I have a bad feeling this spring/summer/fall is going to torch big time

Disgusting 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

The trough wants to back up into the midsection, so you end up cold and dry for 5 days and then storms will cut.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is a 5 to 7  day transient cold dry shot

 

 

 

There is nothing but LP to your north which will allow storms to cut in the longer range.

 

 

 

Just an incredibly positive AO/NAO. You aren’t sustaining sustaining any cold with that garbage over the arctic and North Atlantic. And as Forky pointed out, SE Ridge city coming up. This “winter” is destined go down with the biggest clunkers of the last 25 years; 97-98, 01-02, 11-12.....

[Brian5671]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

SE ridge city. Those SSTAs are blazing. Can you say positive feedback loop? I have a bad feeling this spring/summer/fall is going to torch big time

Last spring there was a cold pool off the NE coast-no sign of that  this year and no sign of a -NAO which dominated last spring.   Looks like a very different setup.

Feb 89 is a good match to this month, that spring-how was it?  Can't remember myself

[Brian5671]

41 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

It is very nice out today.  About 50 F, nice warm sun, bit breezy.

another temp bust on the high side...49 here.

[TJW014]

48 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

It is very nice out today.  About 50 F, nice warm sun, bit breezy.

50 here as well. Feels great outside. The high cirrus clouds, if they stick around for awhile will set up for a pretty sunset this evening

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

hello SE ridges 

 

The record +AO just reinforces that background North Atlantic SST pattern that has been stuck in place for years. So we get record SST warmth off the East Coast and that cold pool south of Greemland.

 

[forkyfork]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record +AO just reinforces that background North Atlantic SST pattern that has been stuck in place for years. So we get record SST warmth off the East Coast and that cold pool south of Greemland.

 

if that base state holds through summer we'll get a 2018 style steambath

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

SE ridge city. Those SSTAs are blazing. Can you say positive feedback loop? I have a bad feeling this spring/summer/fall is going to torch big time

We've missed out on a blazing summer past several years. I think we're due for one.

High temp/high dew combo in the works?

[JustinRP37]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We've missed out on a blazing summer past several years. I think we're due for one.

High temp/high dew combo in the works?

We set multiple dew point records in the past two summers. It is very hard to have super high dew points and record warm conditions. We can still be very muggy and hot, but to have dews like we have been having and upper 90s to low 100s is very hard to pull off.

[HailMan06]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

if that base state holds through summer we'll get a 2018 style steambath

@forkyfork I have a question. The Bermuda high that summer was positioned so far north that we were getting a lot of easterly flow. Were we getting the northerly edge of the Trades?

[donsutherland1]

Another short period of cold is overspreading the region. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. More cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present. If some past cases with a strongly positive AO during the first half of March are representative, the cold would likely last around a week before warmth returns.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

A snowfall will likely affect parts of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia tomorrow into Friday. Likely accumulations include: Greenville, NC: 3"-6"; Norfolk: 2"-4"; Raleigh: 2"-4"; and, Wilmington: 1" or less.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -15.75 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.347. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.891 from 1989.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 27, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

On February 18, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.815 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.883.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 64% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.