binbisso Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 February is looking entirely different than January. First it looks very active January was very dry secondly the negative EPO is going to allow for cold air to be close by so I think we're going to time one of these waves or maybe two during the first half of the month but we shall see you can also add in the mjo at least during in the first week should be in the c o d and not in any Amplified warm phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I should also add that the vortex will be over Hudson Bay and not over Alaska which is more favorable for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 38 minutes ago, binbisso said: Yes the third wave is very warm on the UK and we all know the GFS is not all snow there's a lot of sleet and freezing rain on their snowfall Maps No surprise, but the Euro looks nothing at all like the GFS and has wave 3 as a lakes cutter. The GFS is in a world all onto its own, huge outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No surprise, but the Euro looks nothing at all like the GFS and has wave 3 as a lakes cutter. The GFS is in a world all onto its own, huge outlier The euro is similar to the UK it drops several inches of snow with the second wave before we torch and rain with the third wave. The trend has been for the cold to press Southward and the trough to be flatter and more positively tilted let's see if that can continue with the third wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I’ve been saying that February 5th is the time to watch for a snow event. Let’s see if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, binbisso said: The euro is similar to the UK it drops several inches of snow with the second wave before we torch and rain with the third wave. The trend has been for the cold to press Southward and the trough to be flatter and more positively tilted let's see if that can continue with the third wave Do you have a clownmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I think we going to see at least some Frozen with one of these waves specially for the city north and west. Climo would favor a more Southward progression with the front but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Do you have a clownmap Yeah but I have to figure out how to post them on here anyway go to pivotal weather and click on high-res euro zoom into the Northeast click on winter weather and then click on total accumulated snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, binbisso said: Yeah but I have to figure out how to post them on here anyway go to pivotal weather and click on high-res euro zoom into the Northeast click on winter weather and then click on total accumulated snowfall It’s got snow for tonight too. especially up in the suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 32 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Euro has been terrible this winter. In fact every model has been horrible, I don’t trust any of them. I doubt we get any snow until I see accumulations on the ground. I just can’t trust models past 24 hours It still has pretty decent accumulations N and W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: We had a few inches so it can't be snowless. Not this year...in the future 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 minute ago, jfklganyc said: Not this year...in the future Had about 6 inches this year way below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 “Models have been terrible.” “Did you X model has snow in 6-10 days!” 5 days later as everything shows rain and 40s: “I’ll wait until the storm is within 24 hours to get excited.” One hour later “did you see a coastal on the model for 8 days from now?” Remember there is more to a forecast than looking at models. Teleconnections don’t look great at all, but we’ll see. I won’t be excited until literally 36 hours out for any threat this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Per Eric Fisher, what the Euro shows is not snow, p-type algorithm issues: https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1223691070904639488?s=20 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Per Eric Fisher, what the Euro shows is not snow, p-type algorithm issues: https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1223691070904639488?s=20 Not snow where? Big difference between NYC, Long Island and 50 miles N and W in HV. Listening to you I should have 2 inches so far, yet I have 17.5 this season. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Per Eric Fisher, what the Euro shows is not snow, p-type algorithm issues: https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1223691070904639488?s=20 Euro got colder for wave 1. Face reality. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 25 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Not this year...in the future What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What? He means long term trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 8 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 44degs., or 11degs.AN. 42* here at 6am. 44* by Noon. The first 17 days of February(06Z,GFS) are averaging 41degs., or 7degs. AN with No Snow. Always cold at tail end which now has slipped forward a few days already as I follow this debacle. Anyone know how Moscow ended up for January? December was +14, apparently and January seemed even warmer 10 days ago. Looks like they have about 1 BN day themselves over the next 15 (Feb. 7,8). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Stunning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Wow 36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Stunning. I was going to use a different word. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 I think some of us are getting to caught up in what the models are showing instead of what the pattern is doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: THANKS FOR THE LINK. ALSO GOOD PRACTICE FOR MY RUSSIAN PROFICIENCY. STUDIED IN COLLEGE A LONG TIME AGO AND ACTUALLY HAVE KEPT UP WITH IT. MY PROFESSOR WOULD BE PROUD. btw: The 12Z, GFS is down to an Avg. of 37 over the next 17 days with 9" of snow near the 14th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Okay. Temperature records both high and low at different locations around the globe are set almost everyday. Monthly record averages at any particular location, high or low are set all over the world, each month. So, what is your point? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: "First time in recorded history that January's average temperature was above freezing" Key word there, is in RECORDED history. What was the average temperature in what is now Moscow, in January in 429 AD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 31 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Okay. Temperature records both high and low at different locations around the globe are set almost everyday. Monthly record averages at any particular location, high or low are set all over the world, each month. So, what is your point? 22 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: "First time in recorded history that January's average temperature was above freezing" Key word there, is in RECORDED history. What was the average temperature in what is now Moscow, in January in 429 AD? Why does it bother you so much when I post a reply to a question asked earlier in the thread? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: I think some of us are getting to caught up in what the models are showing instead of what the pattern is doing. Post of the decade. This statement covers it all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Why does it bother you so much when I post a reply to a question asked earlier in the thread? Not at all. Has nothing to do with you. Just couldn't find the original post I guess to reply to. It's all good. I love reading your posts. Very informative, and I learn alot from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 43 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: "First time in recorded history that January's average temperature was above freezing" Key word there, is in RECORDED history. What was the average temperature in what is now Moscow, in January in 429 AD? 200 years of record keeping still makes it notable, regardless of what may have happened before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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