doncat Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 12° here for low...Coldest of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Models are indicating another Niño-like +AAM rise near the end of February and start of March. While it is a warm pattern in late January like we recently experienced, it can offer a +PNA near the start of March. So this may be our last shot a getting a small snow event to close out the season. But there may not be any guarantees since it will still be combined with the lingering Niña-like Pacific background pattern. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Had 6 at 6:00 am. Up to 9 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 At least we can brag that we got some small El Niño-like element to the pattern. The coldest temperature of the season often comes in February during an El Niño. The low of 14 in NYC is officially the coldest of the season. The last time this occurred was was with the super El Niño in 2016 and weaker one in 2015. Coldest temperature season in NYC Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season 2019-2020 16 20 14 14 2018-2019 24 2 11 2 2017-2018 9 5 16 5 2016-2017 17 14 19 14 2015-2016 34 11 -1 -1 2014-2015 24 8 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Currently 6.1, sub zero does not look like it’s happening tonight. In this pattern we may not get another shot at it this season. I can’t even remember the last year we didn’t go below zero. It’s been a long time. IMBY going back to 2005 the last winter I didn’t get below zero was ‘16-‘17 when I only made it to 0. The other winters without any below zero readings are: ’06-‘07 ’07-‘08 ’09-‘10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Currently 6.1, sub zero does not look like it’s happening tonight. In this pattern we may not get another shot at it this season. I can’t even remember the last year we didn’t go below zero. It’s been a long time. The only long term records for SE interior NY appear to be POU. Looks like the last time the seasonal minimum was this high was back in 1998. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1937-04-30 10 4 2 1932-04-30 8 3 3 1998-04-30 6 8 - 1947-04-30 6 0 4 2020-04-30 5 76 - 1953-04-30 5 0 5 2008-04-30 3 0 - 2007-04-30 3 0 - 1944-04-30 3 0 6 2002-04-30 2 0 - 1992-04-30 2 0 7 2012-04-30 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Currently 6.1, sub zero does not look like it’s happening tonight. In this pattern we may not get another shot at it this season. I can’t even remember the last year we didn’t go below zero. It’s been a long time. Yeah, no good here. Bottomed out at 2F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, no good here. Bottomed out at 2F. Only made it to 5.1° so not even close. Looks like this will be the first season since I've been keeping temperature records that we don't go below zero. Just wondered if anyone has records in the HV as to the last season we didn't get below zero? Just saw Bluewaves post above from Poughkeepsie records . Looking at those records it sees like 2007/08 was the last season I didn't get below zero. Another indicator of how absurd the temperatures have been since late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Only made it to 5.1° so not even close. Looks like this will be the first season since I've been keeping temperature records that we don't go below zero. Just wondered if anyone has records in the HV as to the last season we didn't get below zero? Just saw Bluewaves post above from Poughkeepsie records . Looking at those records it sees like 2007/08 was the last season I didn't get below zero. Another indicator of how absurd the temperatures have been since late December. Like Rob, my last such season was 16-17, so not terribly long ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Only made it to 5.1° so not even close. Looks like this will be the first season since I've been keeping temperature records that we don't go below zero. Just wondered if anyone has records in the HV as to the last season we didn't get below zero? Just saw Bluewaves post above from Poughkeepsie records . Looking at those records it sees like 2007/08 was the last season I didn't get below zero. Another indicator of how absurd the temperatures have been since late December. I quoted you earlier this morning with my records, see above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Only made it to 5.1° so not even close. Looks like this will be the first season since I've been keeping temperature records that we don't go below zero. Just wondered if anyone has records in the HV as to the last season we didn't get below zero? Just saw Bluewaves post above from Poughkeepsie records . Looking at those records it sees like 2007/08 was the last season I didn't get below zero. Another indicator of how absurd the temperatures have been since late December. Seems like the records closer your area only go back to 1998. Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2020-04-30 5 76 - 1998-04-30 6 95 3 2008-04-30 3 0 4 2007-04-30 2 0 - 2002-04-30 2 5 6 2017-04-30 0 0 - 2012-04-30 0 5 - 2010-04-30 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Models are indicating another Niño-like +AAM rise near the end of February and start of March. While it is a warm pattern in late January like we recently experienced, it can offer a +PNA near the start of March. So this may be our last shot a getting a small snow event to close out the season. But there may not be any guarantees since it will still be combined with the lingering Niña-like Pacific background pattern. Not saying it’s right but the last CANSIPS run wanted to pop a big Aleutian ridge in March, which would fit with the Niña background you talk about. Also, check out the PDO, it’s gone strongly negative since January. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020020100&fh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Eps getting colder for the next shot of arctic air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Models are indicating another Niño-like +AAM rise near the end of February and start of March. While it is a warm pattern in late January like we recently experienced, it can offer a +PNA near the start of March. So this may be our last shot a getting a small snow event to close out the season. But there may not be any guarantees since it will still be combined with the lingering Niña-like Pacific background pattern. We would have the mjo briefly in the cold phases and the -epo ridge further East. I don’t think it’s lasts long but perhaps we pull a March 2019 like weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 You can see on the roundy plots a wave dies in 7 then a kelvin wave takes over in p8. But by the 11th you have a wave in p5/6 which it has been all winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: IMBY going back to 2005 the last winter I didn’t get below zero was ‘16-‘17 when I only made it to 0. The other winters without any below zero readings are: ’06-‘07 ’07-‘08 ’09-‘10 January 9, 2017 I recorded -0.6° so I'm guessing 2007/08 was my last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You can see on the roundy plots a wave dies in 7 then a kelvin wave takes over in p8. But by the 11th you have a wave in p5/6 which it has been all winter Back to phases 5&6 lol you can’t make this up been stuck in the same loop since December. If that’s correct, we can kiss March goodbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Back to phases 5&6 lol you can’t make this up been stuck in the same loop since December. If that’s correct, we can kiss March goodbye March will probably be more of the same IMO. Warm/wet. We might have a window for something during the first week of the month. Just don’t think that pattern lasts long. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 21 hours ago, Allsnow said: We would have the mjo briefly in the cold phases and the -epo ridge further East. I don’t think it’s lasts long but perhaps we pull a March 2019 like weekend. We would definitely need some help from the -EPO/+PNA as that Atlantic vortex is on steroids. Maybe the current SOI drop and +AAM spike could help out in this regard. Current SOI 15 Feb 2020 1009.07 1008.90 -21.95 -2.09 -4.47 14 Feb 2020 1009.59 1008.40 -17.05 -1.79 -4.32 13 Feb 2020 1010.64 1008.50 -12.49 -1.61 -4.11 12 Feb 2020 1012.36 1009.50 -9.03 -1.55 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: January 9, 2017 I recorded -0.6° so I'm guessing 2007/08 was my last year Well there’s plenty that we can all guess at... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: January 9, 2017 I recorded -0.6° so I'm guessing 2007/08 was my last year This is part of the reason why, even as a lifelong fan of science, I'll always advocate for Fahrenheit in the mid-latitudes. 0F and 100F are both nearly perfect benchmarks by which you can compare the sensible perceptions of seasons. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: Many snow challenged winters have found ways to produce some snow during the early portion of March. Have you done any research on the summers that follow winters similar to this one bluewave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, frd said: Have you done any research on the summers that follow winters similar to this one bluewave? The default summer pattern since 2010 has been above normal to record warmth and dewpoints. But the specific details this year look pretty complex. We currently have one strongest +AO patterns on record. Does this continue or reverse in time for the summer? The Niña -like ridge north of Hawaii has flipped the -PDO to most negative in years. Will this continue or can the El Niño try to come on to counter that Pacific pattern? Plenty of mixed signals going into the spring. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 13 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Back to phases 5&6 lol you can’t make this up been stuck in the same loop since December. If that’s correct, we can kiss March goodbye Phase 5 is a cold phase for March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: March will probably be more of the same IMO. Warm/wet. We might have a window for something during the first week of the month. Just don’t think that pattern lasts long. Phase 5 is cold in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 @bluewave what’s your thoughts on the TPV eventually blowing its top? I would think eventually it has to break down. Perhaps cold April? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Phase 5 is a cold phase for March Not if the MVP is negative. Hopefully, it won’t be negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave what’s your thoughts on the TPV eventually blowing its top? I would think eventually it has to break down. Perhaps cold April? We have seen plenty of hard AO /NAO reversals in recent years. Just look at the record -NAO from last April through November that suddenly reversed. The only other era with close to such an extreme +NAO +AO like we have now was 1989 to 1993. Most of those years featured a flip to more negative at some point in the spring or summer. But it’s difficult to speculate with the record breaking +AO phase right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 March 5th 1981... NYC got 8.6" of snow with a very negative ao and nao with a positive pna... March 5th 2015... NYC got 7.5" of snow with a very positive ao and nao with a negative pna... March can deliver regardless of the indices at the time...March 2009 ahd no indices going for it... March 1960 had a neg ao but positive nao and neg pna... March 6th has the most 2" or greater snowfalls than any other date for NYC... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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