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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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5 hours ago, uncle W said:

so far this winter NYC had only two days with a maximum 32 or lower...the record is two set in 1952-53...

winter...# of days max 32 or lower...

2019-20......2 so far...

1952-53......2

1997-98......3

2001-02......3

1931-32......5

2007-08......6

2011-12......6

1918-19......7

1990-91......7

1992-93......7

1974-75......8

Very good stat Uncle, and it confirms my earlier sentiments that this year has lacked days with cold high temperatures.

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Next 8 days are averaging 35.5degs., or about 1deg. AN.

Month to date is +8.7[42.6].         Should be about +5.8[39.9] by the 22nd.

All models are snow less.

Remainder of February is averaging 37degs. so we should end near +4.2[39.5].

37* here at 6am.     35* at 7am.     33* at 7:30am.      32* at 7:45am.        31* at 8am.       30* at 9am.      Essentially 30* all the way to 31* by 3pm.        28* by 6pm.        26* at 7pm.        23* by 9pm.      21* by 11am.

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Several stations just recorded their warmest first 13 days of February on record. Places like Newark beat 1990. I guess it’s fitting since the +AO recently topped the previous all-time record set in February 1990.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Feb 1 to Feb 13
Missing Count
1 2020-02-13 42.6 0
2 1990-02-13 42.2 0
3 1991-02-13 40.8 0
4 1999-02-13 40.5 0
5 1998-02-13 39.5 0
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Tonight will probably be the coldest night of the season. 

12F is the current forecast. Afterwards there'll be one more cold shot next week and then we should fully moderate and finally put this miserable winter behind us. 

It'll be interesting to see how the current pattern reacts with the seasonal changes though. There's some talks of a cold April a la 1990 and that seems very possible at this juncture. Course by then it'd be useless and just lead to a chilly/wet month. 

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Temperatures were falling through the 20s this evening in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The minimum temperature tomorrow morning could fall into the teens in New York City and Philadelphia. Readings in the lower teens and perhaps single digits are likely outside both cities.

But then winter's latest effort to take hold will fail again. Warmer air will quickly return. It is likely that the second half of February will be warmer than normal overall. During that time, cold shots will likely be of a short duration.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first three weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

Winter 2019-2020 became the 19th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 14. Mean total snowfall for the 18 prior cases was 12.5" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 39% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 89% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. Just 11% of such winters wound up with 30" or more seasonal snowfall vs. 41% of winters in the historic record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -17.05 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.686.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 22, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

On February 13, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.234 (RMM). The February 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.122.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 55% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-12 AO average is +2.926. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region.

 

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lowest minimum so far this winter is 16 set back in December...the record highest winter minimum in Central Park is 19 set in 2001-02...

winter...winters min temp...

2001-02......19...Feb/Mar...

2019-20......16...Dec...

1931-32......15...Mar...

1974-75......15...Jan...

1997-98......14...Jan...

2000-01......14...Dec...

2005-06......14...Dec...

2016-17......14...Jan/Mar...

1936-37......13...Dec...

2009-10......13...Jan...

2011-12......13...Jan...

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1 minute ago, uncle W said:

lowest minimum so far this winter is 16 set back in December...the record highest winter minimum in Central Park is 19 set in 2001-02...

winter...winters min temp...

2001-02......19

2019-20......16

1931-32......15

1974-75......15

1997-98......14

2000-01......14

2005-06......14

2016-17......14

1936-37......13

2009-10......13

2011-12......13

Met winter?

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37 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Made it to Bomoseen Vermont! Currently 0 outside! Have about 8 inches of snow on the ground here at the lake. Even here below average season but it looks great! Finally enjoying a winter weekend!

Such a great spot, I went to school at Castleton for a while. Have fun! Did they get the freezing mist other places near there got?

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It's still pretty breezy here, so temp's dropping at a snail's pace... only 8F currently. The HRRR holds that winds will go dead, or close to it, by 2 am. With sunrise before 7 now, that wouldn't leave a ton of wiggle room in the quest for <0F.

It's amazing how some years I need everything to go right for a subzero low, and in others they're a dime a dozen. I think I was pushing 20 nights below zero in 14-15.

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The next 8 days are averaging 35degs., or just Normal.

Month to date is  +7.6[41.6].         Should be +4.8[39.2] by the 23rd.        The last 15 days of February are averaging 36.5degs., or about Normal.     8" of Snow near the 27th.    There was no snow on the three prior runs, however.     February should end near +3.8[39.1].

18* here at 6am.     19* at 7am.   P is 1037.6mb.       21* at 8am.      24* by 10am.      26* by 1pm.        31* by 4pm.

 

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