Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Picked up 0.31" of rain for the day. Two day total 0.69" Current temp 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Next 8 days are averaging 37.5degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +9.1[42.9]. Should be about +6.6[40.6] by the 20th. The rest of February needs to be -5.6, just to end at Normal. All 3 main models are snow less for their duration. 06Z, GFS is averaging 38.5degs. for the next 17days. The 12Z, GFS is still snow less, but the average is down to 36.5 on the next 17 days. 40* here at 6am. 39* at 7am. 45* by Noon. 46* at 1pm. 42* by 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 @Allsnow @bluewave A +4 sigma NAM index on the last week of February....I think we’re cooked into early March and at that point, you really only have the first 15 days to make something happen: https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1227541123155005441?s=20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Morning thoughts... While attention has been fixed on the record-setting AO+ regime that saw the AO reach a preliminary all-time record of +6.342, another development that has occurred in the eastern Pacific has increased the probability of a warmer than normal March. That development also suggests that any snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region after February could be limited. ENSO Region 1+2 has warmed dramatically over the past two weeks. During the week centered around January 22, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and for January 2020 it was -0.04°C. During the most recent period (week centered around February 5), that anomaly had risen to +0.8°C. Both the 2/12/2020 0z EPS and GEFS suggest that the AO will return to extremely positive values near or above +4.000 around February 20. In addtion, based on the outcomes following the 1989 and 1990 super AO+ regimes in February and assuming a secondary peak at extremely positive values (+4.000 or above) around February 20 +/- a few days, March will likely begin with a noted absence of blocking in the AO+ region. The evolution of the February AO+ regime would argue that the AO would likely remain positive for much of March. During the 1981-2019 period, there were seven cases where the February ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increased by +0.5° over the January average: 1989, 1991, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2012. Five (71%) of those cases had an AO+ to end February and start March: 1989, 2002, 2008, 2011, and 2012. The March composite 500 mb and temperature anomalies for those five cases are below: Mean March-April snowfall for New York City for those five cases was 0.7" (skewed by 2.5" in March-April, 1989) and 0.5" in Philadelphia (skewed by 2.4" in March-April 1989). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: @Allsnow @bluewave A +4 sigma NAM index on the last week of February....I think we’re cooked into early March and at that point, you really only have the first 15 days to make something happen: https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1227541123155005441?s=20 Other than a brief Arctic shot on Saturday, all the cold continues to remain locked up over Alaska and Greenland. This has been the pattern since December 22nd. We continue to see the record +AO pattern extend right into late February. On the Pacific side, we are seeing the most extreme +EPO since 2012. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Other than a brief Arctic shot on Saturday, all the cold continues to remain locked up over Alaska and Greenland. This has been the pattern since December 22nd. We continue to see the record +AO pattern extend right into late February. On the Pacific side, we are seeing the most extreme +EPO since 2012. It looks like this same pattern goes right into early March, at least, it isn’t just going to magically flip on 3/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It looks like this same pattern goes right into early March, at least, it isn’t just going to magically flip on 3/1 It is really weird to see a pattern continue for months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It looks like this same pattern goes right into early March, at least, it isn’t just going to magically flip on 3/1 Yeah it's definitely a wrap. This is the most hostile winter pattern I've ever seen. I'm actually in awe how extreme it is on the unfavorable scale. It's amazing we've recorded any snowfall honestly. Don't know if March will torch but it seems very possible given the teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It is really weird to see a pattern continue for months. Not really. We've been in this "stuck" pattern regime for years. Rarely do we see complete pattern flips anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah it's definitely a wrap. This is the most hostile winter pattern I've ever seen. I'm actually in awe how extreme it is on the unfavorable scale. It's amazing we've recorded any snowfall honestly. Don't know if March will torch but it seems very possible given the teleconnections. the PV strengthening over the pole will seal our fate for any cold/snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Not really. We've been in this "stuck" pattern regime for years. Rarely do we see complete pattern flips anymore. Yeah, stuck weather patterns have become the new normal. We can remember the record -NAO pattern from May to October in 2019. Constant 50/50 lows and backdoor cold fronts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It is really weird to see a pattern continue for months. 812 it seams as if it has been stuck for not just 4 months but that it has been more like 12,,,,sad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, stuck weather patterns have become the new normal. We can remember the record -NAO pattern from May to October in 2019. Constant 50/50 lows and backdoor cold fronts. March 2018 was the last time I can remember a pattern flipping on a dime and that was due to a historic SSW event as far as I recall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I just looked at the historic NYC snowfall records and am shocked how bad 1970 through 2000 actually we're. ONLY 3 above average snowfall winters in 30 years! Makes this 2 year below average run look great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: March 2018 was the last time I can remember a pattern flipping on a dime and that was due to a historic SSW event as far as I recall. That one actually began with the start warming event on February 10th. But it took about 3 weeks to flip the pattern for us. In the mean time we had the record 80 degree warmth. Last March we got lucky when the -EPO developed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: That one actually began with the start warming event on February 10th. But it took about 3 weeks to flip the pattern for us. In the mean time we had the record 80 degree warmth. Last March we got lucky when the -EPO developed. Will the MJO going into 7 and 8 help us at all in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: That one actually began with the start warming event on February 10th. But it took about 3 weeks to flip the pattern for us. In the mean time we had the record 80 degree warmth. Last March we got lucky when the -EPO developed. Yeah, we had a snowy 1st weekend of March with that -epo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: @Allsnow @bluewave A +4 sigma NAM index on the last week of February....I think we’re cooked into early March and at that point, you really only have the first 15 days to make something happen: https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1227541123155005441?s=20 We just going to need and wait and see. The stats @donsutherland1 are posting definitely don’t inspire confidence on any snow going forward. That being said, after the 25th I think we will have a better shot of threading the needle. By no means is that a endorsement to gas the snowblowers up lol. But yes, I think March will mainly be a continuation of what we have now. Warm/wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 42 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Will the MJO going into 7 and 8 help us at all in March? There`s convection all over. The convection in the Maritime Pacific probably inserts it`s forcing into the pattern more than the convection in the I/O. And with the AO so strong it just bullies the mid latitude pattern regardless. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: That one actually began with the start warming event on February 10th. But it took about 3 weeks to flip the pattern for us. In the mean time we had the record 80 degree warmth. Last March we got lucky when the -EPO developed. That was a wild couple of months. I actually feel like us in the immediate metro area underperformed in March relative to the potential of those storms. That was an amazing parade of KU's one after another. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, we had a snowy 1st weekend of March with that -epo. Yeah, the EPO actually flipped negative last winter in late January. But it took until early March to produce the snowfall. That’s when the -PNA finally relaxed. But this winter we have seen one of the most extreme +EPO/+AO patterns of all-time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Beautiful out this morning. It's so nice out, I took the Vette today. I might even put the targa down to get the fresh air. Gotta make the most of it before we return to gloomy tomorrow, and cold to start the weekend. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 It’s good to finally see the sun. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=12&year=2020&month=2&dpi=100&_fmt=png 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 The sun feels hot today! This disaster of a winter is almost over 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Mean temp here thru yesterday is 41.6° which is a +9.6° departure....Warmest Feb. is 39.6° set in 2017. We'll see where we end up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 If you take out the first three weeks of December where are we in relation to the warmest winter ever? We have to be close right? I certainly never remember winter that has just been so consistently warm every day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 all that wasted neg ao and nao last summer...I thought it was a good sign at the time...what a disaster... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 the coldest 30 days came in December...it averaged around 38.0...highest on record if it stands... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 20 minutes ago, doncat said: Mean temp here thru yesterday is 41.6° which is a +9.6° departure....Warmest Feb. is 39.6° set in 2017. We'll see where we end up. we'll put a dent in that Friday and Saturday. We'll see how hot we can get last 10 days-if that AO goes super positive again we could roast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Very odd to have to be concerned about a hard freeze in February with such an early bloom. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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