dWave Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Following yesterday’s deep storm, a colder air mass moved into the region. Nevertheless, the high temperature reached 41° in New York City and the daily mean temperature was still 2° above normal. Five photos from the New York Botanical Garden where the first crocus buds have broken forth. Whether they represent an accurate long-range forecast for the coming spring remains to be seen. Just walking around lately I've noticed those popping out the soil in random patches last week or so. Now I know im not losing it. Seems most nights stay above freezing this winter so makes sense. That forecast in the teens end of the week is gonna feel brutal if it verfies. I know this winter making me soft when upper 20s feels like an artic outbreak. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 28, light snow, coating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 I've now recorded my first measurable snowfall (0.1") in 21 days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Don, I notice you post a lot of pictures from NYBG. I worked there from 1987-1989 and have only been back once but they bring back great memories. Every year I say I am going to go at least once and see the train show but it never happens. Thanks for sharing these pictures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, Northwest NJ said: Don, I notice you post a lot of pictures from NYBG. I worked there from 1987-1989 and have only been back once but they bring back great memories. Every year I say I am going to go at least once and see the train show but it never happens. Thanks for sharing these pictures. You're welcome. It's a beautiful place. It's also a great place to see the flora respond to the weather. Now that the train show is finished, the Garden had very few people this afternoon. The orchid show opens to the public next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: I've now recorded my first measurable snowfall (0.1") in 21 days. Same here. Nice to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Current temperatures in upstate NY, around the Adirondack area, are near 15 below zero. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Fresh snow and in places above normal snow depth in Adirondacks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Good Sunday morning, especially ne PA, nw NJ participants where light snow has started including here in Wantage as first flurries began ~230A. A minor event to be melted away by 11AM with snow moving out to the northeast of PA/NJ by 6 or 7am. The 00z/9 RGEM and ECMWF are best for this potential 1/2-1" event parts of ne PA and probably less than 1/2 inch event for Sussex County NJ...maybe more like 1 or 2 tenths. 00z 3KM NAM was much better than its 00z/9 12K NAM. Have appended (courtesy of Pivotal Weather) what happened this Saturday afternoon in terms of measurable which can translate to a 10/1 snow ratio of even greater ratio for the high terrain, mainly SE NYS and to the N and NE of Scranton PA. Looks to me that NE PA/ and NJ Sussex County high terrain (Vernon-Wantage) will pick up 1-3" between 11PM Sunday and 6AM Monday per latest ensembles and multiple models. That one has FGEN and much better dendrite growth and would not surprise to see a brief period of 1/2S up here in these parts by 4AM Monday. From what I can tell... EC/RGEM/NAM op runs all have trended slightly colder on the 00z cycle as compared to 12 hours earlier. Again, the decent but small accums should be reserved for higher terrain. 245A/9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 I happen to be up and so Wantage has a steady light snow now with decent flake size and a gusty northeast wind. Still only a T but noticing it on car/pavements. 310A/9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Wantage NJ ~335A 0.2" covering everything, nice sized flakes. northeast wind. (06z/9 NAM continues too slow or a miss). We may end up with half an inch of fluff here by 5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Wantage NJ 428A 0.5" fluff. Still snowing but visibility has improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or about 4.5degs. AN. 35* here at 6am. 34* at 6:30am. 39* by 10am. 42* by 11am, and already = to my High from yesterday. 46* by 1pm. The next 17 days are averaging 36degs., or just about Normal. (06Z, GFS). No snow till end of period. A major storm will not be predicted ahead of time and will be an accident. Maybe it snowed on 3 days this season but the models probably have identified about 30 different days for snow. The 12Z, GFS is up to an average 39degs. for the next 17 days, with no snow. Just 6 BN days in the last 48 days, just 1 in the last 17 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 0.3 of snow overnight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 7 hours ago, wdrag said: Fresh snow and in places above normal snow depth in Adirondacks now. My younger nephew reported near 20 inches at the Northwood school in lake placid with the recent storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 We have the typical snowfall distribution across the region for Great Lakes cutter and coastal hugger storm tracks. Northern New England is always favored for the heaviest snowfall with storm tracks like this. BTV to CAR have above normal snowfall to date. A zone of close to normal from BGM to ALB. Then below normal from PHI to BOS. Seasonal snowfall through February 8th .........Actual Snowfall.....Normal snowfall BTV....56.6...49.3 CAR...88.7...66.7 BGM..52.5...51.7 ALB...38.2....38.5 BOS...14.9....26.3 NYC.....4.8....14.7 ISP.......6.8.....14.5 PHI......0.3.....13.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Wow... White stuff falling outside... Forgot its name... It has been so long... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 5 hours ago, wdrag said: Good Sunday morning, especially ne PA, nw NJ participants where light snow has started including here in Wantage as first flurries began ~230A. A minor event to be melted away by 11AM with snow moving out to the northeast of PA/NJ by 6 or 7am. The 00z/9 RGEM and ECMWF are best for this potential 1/2-1" event parts of ne PA and probably less than 1/2 inch event for Sussex County NJ...maybe more like 1 or 2 tenths. 00z 3KM NAM was much better than its 00z/9 12K NAM. Have appended (courtesy of Pivotal Weather) what happened this Saturday afternoon in terms of measurable which can translate to a 10/1 snow ratio of even greater ratio for the high terrain, mainly SE NYS and to the N and NE of Scranton PA. Looks to me that NE PA/ and NJ Sussex County high terrain (Vernon-Wantage) will pick up 1-3" between 11PM Sunday and 6AM Monday per latest ensembles and multiple models. That one has FGEN and much better dendrite growth and would not surprise to see a brief period of 1/2S up here in these parts by 4AM Monday. From what I can tell... EC/RGEM/NAM op runs all have trended slightly colder on the 00z cycle as compared to 12 hours earlier. Again, the decent but small accums should be reserved for higher terrain. 245A/9 Picked up a surprise 1 to 2 inches yday afternoon/evening here in Hawley PA and it’s snowing again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Animal said: My younger nephew reported near 20 inches at the Northwood school in lake placid with the recent storm I've been there, had friends that were students 35-40 years ago. Is it still populated by mostly rich fk up kids that smoke an inordinate amount of really good weed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 NYC is currently in 7th place for warmest winter through February 8th at 39.2 degrees. A final average temperature of 38.4 or warmer qualifies for the DJF top 10. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 8 Missing Count 1 2016-02-08 42.7 0 2 2002-02-08 41.5 0 - 1932-02-08 41.5 0 4 2012-02-08 40.4 0 5 1991-02-08 39.7 0 6 1950-02-08 39.4 0 7 2020-02-08 39.2 0 8 1933-02-08 39.1 0 9 1998-02-08 39.0 0 10 1999-02-08 38.9 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.1 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 1990-1991 39.1 0 8 1998-1999 38.6 0 9 1948-1949 38.5 0 10 1889-1890 38.4 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Today's preliminary value for the Arctic Oscillation is +5.180. That would surpass the daily record of +5.147, which was set in 1990. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 This is like when we were kids here (in the 1980s and early 1990s)... warm when there's moisture; when it's freezing cold, it's dry.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 36 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I've been there, had friends that were students 35-40 years ago. Is it still populated by mostly rich fk up kids that smoke an inordinate amount of really good weed? He plays ice hockey. Don’t think it is the same as what you reported other than $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 so far the coldest temperature this month in NYC is 30 I think...the record for the highest monthly min for Feb is 22 set in 1927...I think that record could fall this year... year Feb min... 1927.....22 2012.....20 2002.....19 2000.....19 1997.....19 2017.....19 1982.....19 1964.....19 1897.....19 1960.....18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today's preliminary value for the Arctic Oscillation is +5.180. That would surpass the daily record of +5.147, which was set in 1990. Looks like this is currently the 10th highest reading. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today's preliminary value for the Arctic Oscillation is +5.180. That would surpass the daily record of +5.147, which was set in 1990. 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like this is currently the 10th highest reading. And interestingly, it is not so much an expansive spatial coverage of low geopotential heights, as one might expect with a classical strongly +AO. The absurdly high value is a function of the incredible pressure gradient / geopotential heigh differential between the North Atlantic and Azores region. The magnitude of the cyclone near Greenland in concert with the anomalous subtropical ridging near Azores is mediating this incredible AO spike. I have not, hitherto, seen such a gradient across the N ATL domain: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 I will continue to track but it doesnt look good. NAO, AO and EPO does not want to go favorable at all for the foreseeable future. It's amazing how stubborn this pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 16 hours ago, Animal said: Walt... nice call. Hopefully it occurs. mt holly issued an alert for snow tomorrow night higher terrain Didn't snow much s half Sussex and all Warren Counties but nice coverings ne PA and up here... still snowing lightly here at 934A. I like the odds for tonight...one thing thats happened. colder has been trapped, so far... in nw NJ...seldom is it colder here than MPO...but at my house in Wantage 22F we 740'MSL and MPO around 2000'). NAM didn't do so hot for this morning in en PA/nw NJ. Monitoring for further development south of 12z/9 NAM. One day at a time in the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, Isotherm said: And interestingly, it is not so much an expansive spatial coverage of low geopotential heights, as one might expect with a classical strongly +AO. The absurdly high value is a function of the incredible pressure gradient / geopotential heigh differential between the North Atlantic and Azores region. The magnitude of the cyclone near Greenland in concert with the anomalous subtropical ridging near Azores is mediating this incredible AO spike. I have not, hitherto, seen such a gradient across the N ATL domain: These are some of the fastest jet stream winds that we have seen over the North Atlantic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, North and West said: This is like when we were kids here (in the 1980s and early 1990s)... warm when there's moisture; when it's freezing cold, it's dry. . It was nothing like this It is much, much warmer now. Emphasis on much. I see 2 days with normal temps in the next 15 days. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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